BSD Predictions Roundtable: Penn State 2025 Season Record

It’s here! The college football season is upon us! Week Zero kicks off in a little over 24 hours, giving us the appetizer to the full season starting a week later. In preparation, the BSD staff got together for the annual season predictions. As always, this is a prediction of the regular season record, anything beyond is an added bonus!

Chris

11-1

As always I’ll be looking at the Lions schedule on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

In the first three weeks, the Lions play Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, all at home. Other than knocking some rust off, I don’t see anything in these first games that raises any questions. Penn State starts 3-0.

Next the Lions play Oregon in the White Out, then UCLA and Northwestern. The headliner here is Oregon, the reigning Big Ten champs. Given the time zone change and the White Out, I’ll give the nod to the Lions, but would not be surprised by an upset. UCLA should be improved from last year, and the game is on the west coast, and it’s the week after the White Out so there could be a letdown, but I don’t think there will be. Northwestern back at home does nothing to scare me either. At the halfway point, the Lions sit at 6-0 (3-0 in the B1G).

The next quarter of the season is where stakes will be claimed. PSU heads on the road to play at Iowa, gets a bye week, then goes to Ohio State before returning to play Indiana. The Hawkeyes are not an easy out at Kinnick, but aside from the madness of 2020 and then 2021 when the backup QB couldn’t handle the big stage, PSU is 5-2 against Iowa under Franklin. I think they get the win before the bye. I cannot, will not, shall not predict a win over OSU until such time as the Lions actually do it. Another loss to the Buckeyes drops the Lions from the ranks of the undefeated. Penn State will have to rebound quickly because the Hoosiers come to town a week later, a season after making the playoffs. This will be a sneaky tough game, but I like the Lions to right the ship. Three quarters of the way there and Penn State is 8-1 (5-1).

The last three weeks features a game at Michigan State, home vs Nebraska, and at Rutgers. MSU should be better, but they’re still early on the rebuilding road. Nebraska is a dark horse playoff contender, and Matt Rhule historically has had great success in Year 3 at his coaching stops. But being at home, I give the nod to the Lions. Rutgers will be scrappy as always, and I think they’re going to be a bowl quality team, but PSU has bigger goals in mind. The Lions finish the regular season 11-1 (8-1).

From there, a trip to Indianapolis may be on the docket, and a playoff berth should be locked in. After that, who knows?

Colin

11-1

With all due respect to Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, Penn State starting 3-0 is as close to a given as you can get. Oregon will be a tough matchup even at home, but the Ducks have more questions entering this season than the Nittany Lions. The White Out atmosphere should give Penn State a significant boost in a close win over the Ducks to move the Lions to 4-0. 

UCLA is a trickier game than people might expect. Traveling across the country the week after the White Out has trap game potential, though PSU has a massive talent advantage. Penn State will struggle early against the Bruins but pull away in the second half for a comfortable win. Northwestern at home should not be too steep of a challenge, though Penn State could get caught looking ahead to the home stretch. Penn State will win and start the season 6-0 for the 3rd straight year.

Penn State’s last trip to Iowa City did not go as planned, but this is a better and deeper team than 2021. Iowa will keep it close with its typically sound defense, but the Lions’ offensive line will begin to assert control of the game in the second half for Penn State to pull away. 

With all of Ohio State’s roster and coordinator changes in the offseason, this is Penn State’s best chance to beat Ohio State in Columbus since 2017. I said last year I would not predict a win over Ohio State until it happens, and I will stick with that, though a Penn State win would not shock me at all. 

Penn State will be favored in all four of its final quartet of games against Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Rutgers. Fortunately for us, the two toughest matchups on paper (Indiana and Nebraska) will be in the friendly confines of Beaver Stadium. An improved Michigan State could certainly test Penn State, Rutgers is not the complete pushover they were in the late 2010s, and Nebraska is poised to take another step forward. None of these games will be easy, but I also cannot see Penn State losing any of them. 

Penn State finishes the regular season 11-1 for the second straight year, locks in a CFP berth, and gets another shot at the Buckeyes in the conference championship game. 

Patrick

11-1

I’m not here to tell you anything that hasn’t been said about this Penn State team one hundred times already this offseason. If they are going to do it, this is the year. They worked extremely hard to get the guys back that they did: Drew Allar, Nick Singleton, Dani Dennis-Sutton, etc. They worked extremely hard to land key pieces in the portal: Kyron Hudson, Trebor Pena, Amare Campbell, etc. And they worked extremely hard to retain Andy Kotelnicki and swipe Jim Knowles away from the Buckeyes. You don’t do all that to go 10-2, get a 9 seed in the CFP, and get bounced in the first round or quarterfinals.

This post isn’t about the postseason though. It’s about the regular season. Penn State will (likely) be touchdown-plus favorites in 10 of the 12 games. Win those. The season will then come down to Oregon and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions *need* to split it. I think they do, beating Oregon at home and losing to Ohio State on the road.

Bennett

11-1

Like others, I’ll explain the way I’ve always looked at Penn State schedules in the past. I divide it into sure wins, probable wins, toss ups, probable losses, and sure losses. I’ve been doing this for as long as I can remember, though the results typically wind up with me being a little bit under on Penn State’s performance. Since coming to BSD, I picked 9-3 in 2022 and 10-2 last year. Both of those years saw the Lions finish a game better, while I got 2023 exactly right with 10-2 and losses to Ohio State and Michigan.

With Penn State’s experience, depth, and overall talent – coupled with the schedule – there is no game that fits the surefire loss category. We all think this team will be good, in the mix for a Big Ten title, and back in the playoffs. But let’s go ahead and put down on paper how I think this one plays out. I’m sure I’ll be wrong on some level, but hey, you’ll have evidence!

Sure wins (7): Nevada, FIU, Villanova, Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan State, UCLA. Home. Away. Neutral. Any circumstances, a (mostly) healthy Penn State team wins these games by two scores.

Probable wins (3): Nebraska – think they can move the ball some, but don’t think they hold up in November in Beaver Stadium. Iowa – I know, I know. Kinnick magic or something. Indiana – last year wasn’t a fluke as they’ve upgraded their program, but Penn State is still on a different level. I think any of these teams COULD beat Penn State – any given Saturday and all. But Penn State has become synonymous with winning games where they’re favored. They’ll be favored in all of these, so they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt.

Toss-ups (1): Oregon. Penn State will be favored, but I can’t bring myself to put a team with as much talent, even if it’s young in spots, in the “probable category”. I think the Lions get this one in a huge, national spot and the hype train starts rolling even more heading into October.

Probable loss (1): Ohio State. I know. I know. But, I’m firmly in the “believe it when I see it” brigade. I just can’t find it in me to predict Penn State to go unbeaten for the first time in more than 30 years either.

Final prediction: 11-1, likely a rematch with you know who in Indianapolis.

Tim

11-1

As the only BSD writer to correctly predict 11-1 in last year’s roundtable, give me a moment while I take my victory lap….

We all know the first three games (Nevada, FIU, Villanova) are sure-fire wins, but let’s go ahead and throw Northwestern into that category, as well. Michigan State should be improved and Rutgers seems to be establishing itself as an annual bowl team, but I have a hard time seeing either of those teams being able to hang with this PSU squad. 

UCLA and Iowa could be annoying road tilts. UCLA is a cross-country trip the week following the Oregon game, and Iowa almost always plays ranked opponents tough at Kinnick Stadium. I can see one or both of those games being the type where it’s a tight game for a while, before PSU’s talent and depth advantage begins to show up by late 3rd/early 4th quarter. Indiana and Nebraska will also be tough outs, but I like PSU to win those games by two to three scores in the friendly confines of Beaver Stadium. 

That leaves us with the two biggest games on the schedule in Oregon and Ohio State. Both teams are in a bit of a transition in terms of replacing some key players and coaches, but only Oregon has the misfortune of having to play in a White Out with a new quarterback who will be making his road debut with the Ducks in said White Out. I like the Nittany Lions to cover that 6.5-point spread (as of the time I’m writing this) against the Ducks. 

Beating the Buckeyes in Columbus for the first time since Curtis Drake Wildcat-ed them to death on the other hand, I’m not quite as confident about, mostly because I think James Franklin has the same mental block with OSU that Ryan Day has with Michigan. That being said, PSU does have to notch a win against the Buckeyes again at *some* point, and this year may be as good of a chance as any to do so. Still, I’m just gonna go ahead and chalk it up as an ‘L’ until proven otherwise. 

This leaves us at PSU making it back-to-back 11-1 regular seasons, likely resulting in a trip to Indy once again for the Big Ten championship and a potential rematch with OSU for all the conference marbles. 

Lando

11-1

Is Pessimist Lando back? You might think that, now that I have a child, that I may have a sunnier outlook on life, constantly gazing towards the horizon, grasping onto any source of light in the present and future.

Nope!

After breezing by Nevada, FIU, and Scottie Reynolds’ Alma Mater (who, by the way, is the only current or former ‘Nova player I like since they beat UNC in the title game. Still not over it.), the Nittany Lions come to their first challenge of the season against Oregon. Although the Ducks will be much better than I think many Nittany Lion fans believe, the combination of the running game, pass rush, and atmosphere should carry Penn State to a 4-0 start.

UCLA certainly appears as though it could be a trap game following the Ducks, but The Lions should have enough talent to get by the Bruins and Northwestern, before heading to a dreaded game at Kinnick. Iowa will be tough, but again, the talent gap is just too much, putting Penn State at 7-0 heading into another bye week and then the trip to Columbus.

Like most people, the Ohio State game is a loss until they prove otherwise. Penn State then runs the table the rest of the regular season, which should secure them a repeat trip to the Big Ten championship game at 11-1.

Ryan

11-1

As much as I want to pick Penn State to run the table, I made a deal with myself to move an Ohio State win into the “believe it when I see it” category a long time ago. What’s interesting about this season is that the consensus among fans and media is that it’s a foregone conclusion that the Nittany Lions are making the playoffs. It’s just a question of seeding and home-field advantage. This is a new feeling for college football fans, who are used to living and dying by the regular season.

I would argue, however, that the regular season is as important as ever. You’re not going to get the SMU/Boise State draw every year — your seed matters, and you need every resume-boosting performance you can get your hands on. The crux of this season (with the exception of Oregon) is the @iowa/@ohio State/Indiana stretch. You have to win two of those three games, and if you lose the White Out matchup with the Ducks, you might have to clean sweep. I think they’ll take care of business everywhere except in Columbus. Also wanted to put this thought out there: it is extremely possible Penn State loses to Ohio State three times this year. Now wouldn’t that be something for the narrative?

Eli

Fine. I’ll do it.

12-0

I’ll take the words of Josh Pate here, and say, “just because they haven’t, doesn’t mean they can’t.” If Penn State loses a game in the regular season, it’s not going to be to Ohio State or Oregon. And Penn State doesn’t lose to teams it’s supposed to beat.