Josh Pate predicts record for every SEC football team in 2025

The 2025 college football season is set to begin in earnest this weekend, as the first SEC teams will hit the field for their openers. So how about predicting the record for each SEC team?

College football analyst Josh Pate did just that on Sunday night on Josh Pate’s College Football Show. And On3 is here to recap his picks.

One thing that might surprise you? Pate doesn’t see any SEC teams winning more than 10 games in the regular season this fall. So let’s get into his picks below.

FORMAT: Team – Win Total (PREDICTION: Record)

Texas A&M – 7.5 (OVER: 9-3)

Josh Pate likes the offensive identity of the Texas A&M squad. It’s the second-tier SEC matchups that he says will define this team — Missouri, Auburn and South Carolina.

How the above games go will determine the season. The college football analyst believes Texas A&M will be good enough to have College Football Playoff implications riding on the regular-season finale at Texas.

Georgia – 9.5 (UNDER: 9-3)

The first thing Pate circled on Georgia is the home field advantage the Bulldogs can create. Ole Miss will come to Athens, as will Texas. Can Georgia create an advantage with its crowd?

A concern for Georgia: Is there going to be inconsistency on the offensive line with so much unproven across the front? Pate believes the receivers could be great, but how Gunner Stockton performs will determine just how good that group is. Pate isn’t willing to go double-digit wins on Georgia due to concerns in the trenches in a very tough SEC.

Auburn – 7.5 (UNDER: 7-5)

Compared to some of its SEC peers, Auburn has a very manageable schedule. However, there are four losable games in the first half of the year, Pate said.

The biggest question mark for the college football analyst is quarterback play. Auburn’s offensive line and receivers could be viewed as great if Jackson Arnold plays to his maximum potential. Pate’s not sure that will happen, thus picking the under.

Florida – 7.5 (OVER: 9-3)

Already on the record picking Florida as a playoff team, Josh Pate doubled down on the Gators cracking the over pretty easily this season. He does admit some of that will depend on quarterback DJ Lagway, who must stay healthy.

Challenging factors for Florida? The toughest strength of schedule in both the SEC and the nation, per Pate’s metrics. That’s a belief in Lagway and a long, athletic defense in picking the over for the Gators.

Texas – 9.5 (OVER: 10-2)

Pate points out that Steve Sarkisian has said he has built the program toward this year, specifically pinpointing the arrival of Arch Manning as the starter and a very good offensive line. Recruiting has been a huge strength and it shows.

The pass rush will be on display early against Ohio State. The thing about Texas is that it has a very tough schedule. It was a close call, but Pate likes Texas to play in the SEC Championship Game.

Alabama – 9.5 (OVER: 10-2)

An interesting point out of the gates from Josh Pate: He likes Alabama’s coaching staff top to bottom as much as any team in the SEC outside of Georgia. There are a lot of strengths on the team, too.

Consistency is going to be the key for the offense. That’s something Alabama struggled with a year ago but should be fixed this year. He thinks Alabama sheds the “schizophrenic profile” it developed last season and hits the over, playing for the league title.

South Carolina – 7.5 (OVER: 8-4)

This one was a tough pick for Pate, who notes South Carolina has a strength of schedule rating of No. 5. His big question mark is the receiving corps outside of Nyck Harbor. He is not a believer currently.

However, Pate notes that if the receiver corps steps up and exceeds expectations, South Carolina could win nine games and contend for the SEC title. Moreover, filling holes defensively with developed players will be a key.

Oklahoma – 7.5 (OVER: 8-4)

Josh Pate has been very blunt about his expectations for new transfer quarterback John Mateer. He has picked him to win the Heisman Trophy this year. That gives Oklahoma a chance to hit the over.

The defense is good enough to help carry the team. The real X-factor will be the offensive line. Pate’s believing the best-case scenario for the Sooners there. He thinks there will be ups and downs, but he’s taking the over.

LSU – 8.5 (UNDER: 8-4)

Pate says LSU has him “more nervous than any team in the SEC” because it’s the hardest team to read. However, he said that the program has proven it can get the right guys on the staff and through the transfer portal, something that causes him to believe.

The real question mark will be the offensive line, given the losses there. He’s not sure the ground game will be good enough to provide balance enough to get through the early season slate before Halloween. If LSU is going to hit the over it has to come out of the gates firing.

Tennessee – 8.5 (UNDER: 8-4)

Finally, Pate wrapped up his SEC record predictions with the Volunteers. The big story in Knoxville is the roster churn that has happened in the last year, including at quarterback. That said, Tennessee has the second easiest strength of schedule in the conference, per his metrics.

Is Josh Heupel‘s system turnover proof, which could allow transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar to be very good? Pate’s not sold. The offensive line and receiver room must perform. Overall, he can’t quite pick it and takes the under.

Other SEC Team Record Predictions

Ole Miss – 8-4
Missouri – 8-4
Vanderbilt – 6-6
Arkansas – 5-7
Kentucky – 4-8
Mississippi State – 4-8