Big Ten Power Ratings: Week One

Week zero brought us no action from the Big Ten, but that’s changing significantly. Every Big Ten team is in action this week. Everyone is getting a fresh start and an equal opportunity to win the conference. While opportunity is excellent, everyone isn’t starting at the same spot. There are huge talent disparities from the top-tier teams to the low-lifers. The Hawks will have a fantastic concoction of bottom-feeders and giants to stack up wins and have chances to gain national recognition.

The power rankings aren’t standings, rankings, but a rating system. We’ll determine how each team completes the eye test, signature wins, and overall feel. It all boils down to one question: would team A beat team B on a neutral site? 

Week one with no data is based on vibes and pedigree folks. The Big Ten has never been better, and I can’t wait to update the ratings as we start the road to Lucas Oil this weekend.

1: Penn State

0-0, Vs. Nevada 6/30

James Franklin and the Nittany Lions look to run back nearly the same squad as last year that made it to the college football semi-finals in January. Quarterback Drew Allar forwent the draft to return in hopes of bringing a championship to Happy Valley.  The offense is potent and will rely on its two-headed monster in the backfield of Singleton and Allen. Penn State lost stalwarts on each side of the ball with Tyler Warren and Abdul Carter, but returns 14 starters, which ranks second in the Big Ten. Jim Knowles will be leading the defense this year, replacing Tom Allen. The plus is that Knowles got snatched from the Nittany Lions’ biggest foe, the Buckeyes. Penn State keeps continuity from a team just one win away from a shot at winning a national championship last year. 2025 may be the year James Franklin finally wins the big one…but probably not.

2: Ohio State

0-0, Vs. No.1 Texas 6/30

You may be wondering why the reigning champs aren’t even ranked at the top of their conference. It’s because what they lack, Penn State has a strength. Ohio State can reload every year with 5-star talent all over the field. What you can’t do is create a game experience out of thin air. The Buckeyes return nine starters and have a sophomore slated to be their starting quarterback. Can Jeremiah Smith make up for that inexperience? Yeah. Jeremiah Smith can do whatever he wants. Unfortunately, the Buckeyes also lost their OC to the Las Vegas Raiders and have Brian Hartline stepping in. The defense will be good, but only return 3 of 11 from that champion-level defense from a year ago. The Buckeyes have all the talent in the world, and Ryan Day can beat anyone but Michigan. The questions are too worrisome for me to put them ahead of the Nittany Lions for now.

3: Michigan

0-0, Vs. New Mexico 6/30

Putting Big Blue third might be a hot take, but I love the Wolverines’ roster this year. Three of the big nasties on the offensive line return, and they bring in Justice Haynes, a star running back from Alabama, to tote the rock. Greg Roman and his defense will be stellar, returning five key starters from 2024. It may be easy to point at a true freshman starter and say they have a problem there. The thing is, Underwood could not possibly be worse than the quarterback play was at Michigan last year. The same coach made Cade McNamara look good; why can’t the number one recruit in the country do the same? They returned 13 guys and ended the season by beating Alabama and Ohio State. It took Sherrone Moore a few weeks to get the Wolverines rolling, but it’ll be tough to stop them.

4: Oregon

0-0, Vs. Montana State 6/30

Dan Lanning is a great coach and recruiter. I just like the way he operates. Lanning has been good at getting established transfer quarterbacks to come in and ball immediately. Lanning failed to get that guy this year. The quarterback looks to be Dante Moore, who has a season of experience from his freshman year at UCLA. Moore’s freshman year was overall pretty dreadful, but he still has tremendous upside. The quarterback has been the engine of these Ducks teams, and the engine light is on right now. The ducks crushed the portal, but also lost depth pieces through it as well. Returning five starters is scary, and right now, I don’t like the Ducks’ chances with teams on their talent level. With oodles of talent, the Ducks will be good in 2025. I don’t trust what they’ve built this offseason; thus, they land at my fourth-best team.

5: Illinois

0-0, Vs. Western Illinois 6/29

One truth in the world of college football is that experience limits early-season struggles. The Illini return 16 starters, the best in the conference and second in the Power four. Illinois will come out of the gates as solid as they were when beating South Carolina in their bowl game. Do the Illini have much more left in the tank? No, this is it. Can they stay afloat as the fifth-best in the conference? Absolutely. The talent disparity between Illinois and the teams rated above them is gigantic. Still, a mixture of experience, coaching, and quarterback play makes them solidly in the top five of the Big Ten. Bielema still has his fastball (and is looking slim).

6: USC

0-0, Vs Missouri State 6/30

I hate to do this. I’m against unquestioningly favoring talent and not including factors like coaching and continuity. The Trojans are too talented to ignore at this point in the ratings. Lincoln Riley has to prove he can succeed in the Big Ten. Once again, there’s a palpable desperation to put a good product on the field at the Coliseum. Alex Grinch is finally out, so the defense finally has some hope. The bottom line is that the Trojans are a top fifteen roster, and there is real pressure to bring glory back to Southern California. I soiled my pants when thinking about how bad the Hawks will look playing the Trojans on the road. I’m calling my shot a little here, but USC will be a real threat this year and have the ceiling to make the playoffs. 

7: Iowa

0-0, Vs Albany 6/30

I have the Hawks as the seventh-best team in the Big Ten entering the season.  I’m choosing cautious optimism and not putting the cart before the horse. Let me see a real pass game, and I might start getting a little wild. The Hawks are in a perfect spot to sneak up on power programs and be good enough to intimidate inferior teams. The defense isn’t what it used to be talent-wise, but coaching can make up for our talent deficiencies. I’ve talked ad nauseam about my doubts for the season, and if you want more of that, read my questions blog. The Hawks could be special. Improvement is a given; it remains to be seen what level we can reach.

8: Indiana

0-0, Vs. Old Dominion 6/30

Curt Cignetti is a complete tool. He waltzed into the Big Ten and thinks he runs the place. This year will be a rude awakening. Despite my sour feelings, they have a good football team together. There’s no doubt Cignett has an established operation. Turn over the whole roster, talk crap, and sneakily have a great quarterback-wide receiver connection. Fernando Mendoza to Elijah Surratt could be the best quarterback-receiver duo in the conference. The Hoosiers will be good enough to beat the bottom half, but I expect them to struggle with the big dogs. 

9: Wisconsin

0-0, Vs. Miami (OH) 6/28

I feel a little bad for our ugly cousins up north. The Badgers got the worst possible break with the schedule this fall. They’ll be favorites in a measly four games this year. Despite that, the badgers as a team are in a good spot. Billy Edwards can sling the rock around, and the roster is still very talented overall. Luke Fickell can coach football despite early struggles at Wisconsin. Awful timing to have finally figured it out. The Badgers could go 5-7 with a good football team.

10: Nebraska

0-0, @ Cincinatti (nuetral site) 6/28

I won’t let the hype fool me until Nebraska can win real Big Ten football games. The media will claim Matt Rhule’s year three is different, but I heard similar things during the Scott Frost tenure. Raiola was very meh last year and didn’t even show much to excite other than his pedigree. The roster is talented, there’s no doubt about that. The Huskers are not a tough team to beat with their current culture. The Huskers have the horses; whether they can all run together is one of the world’s greatest mysteries. 

11: Washington

0-0, Vs. Colorado State 6/30

Jedd Fisch finally has his bearings after an inconsistent first year in Seattle. The Huskies have hopes to return to the heights that Michael Penix Jr. brought them to in 2023. I don’t see that meteoric rise, but a slight improvement from last year. Demond Williams is a quarterback breakout contender, and Jonah Coleman is an established star in the backfield. Washington also added Ryan Walters as their defensive coordinator. Walters failed at Purdue as a head coach but is a proven defensive coordinator. With a huge homefield advantage, the Huskies need a few road wins to boost their rating. Watch out for the Huskies. 

12: Michigan State

0-0, Vs. Western Michigan 6/29

Jonathan Smith is a nice guy, but I don’t think he’s the man to get Michigan State rolling again. There still isn’t enough buzz out of East Lansing, and the momentum is at a standstill. Aidan Chiles should be better this year, and the roster has some nice pieces. Limited turnover gives the Spartans a chance to start strong, but I’m not afraid of Michigan State this year. 

13: Minnesota

0-0, Vs. Buffalo 6/28

PJ Fleck’s seat is starting to warm up. I’m unsure how I should feel about that. I like having our own personal dweeb to come and kick around for four quarters every year. We can only hope for mediocre results that allow Elmer Fudd to stick around one more year. That’s my Minnesota preview. Koi Perich is outstanding as well. 

14: UCLA

0-0, Vs. Utah 6/30

I wish the Hawks had a chance to get back at both Nico Iamaleava and UCLA after they put beatings on us. Deshaun Foster is a placeholder, and the path for the program is as easy to see as a grain of rice from miles away. The Bruins have talent, so they’ll stumble into a few wins here and there, but expect nothing special. 

15: Rutgers

0-0, Vs Ohio 6/28

(inarticulate Italian noises)

16: Northwestern

0-0, @ Tulane 6/30

The Wildcats return most of the defense, and David Braun is a fine head coach for their program. Northwestern has no juice but should be well-coached. Pat Fitzgerald is starting to look like a genius. Watch out for them catching a loss to Tulane in week one.

17: Purdue

0-0, Vs. Ball State 6/30

Having one returning player is horrifying. Barry Odom is a very nice hire, but getting that train back on the tracks will take time. West Lafayette could be a trap solely because of the negative energy that’ll be in the building.

18: Maryland

0-0, Vs. FAU 6/30

Mike Locksley is going to look very sad on the sidelines this year. The terrapins are just depressing. Turtles are pretty neat, at least!

Let me know in the comments what you would change (even though they’re flawless).

Happy football season, folks. We finally made it. Go Hawks!