ESPN FPI gives Oregon Ducks near pick-em chance against Penn State

The Oregon Ducks did what they needed to do against the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday afternoon, overcoming a relatively slow start to blow out their in-state rival, 41-7, and move past the easiest stretch of their schedule with a 4-0 record.

Now, things get a bit more interesting.

Oregon heads out on the road for a top-five matchup against the Penn State Nittany Lions. It will be a white-out game in Beaver Stadium, and ESPN's College GameDay will be on hand for the rematch of the Big Ten Conference Championship game. After Sunday's announcement from the Ducks, Oregon should be glowing in the game as well.

This past week, while the Ducks throttled their rival, the Nittany Lions were able to enjoy a bye week. So how did the latest evidence impact the probability for this game, and how does ESPN's FPI see things? That's worth looking at.

For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, examining their rosters, schedules, and winning percentages, and ultimately determining where they stand after the season concludes.

In short, it examines Oregon's 2025 schedule and predicts the percentage of wins the Ducks need to achieve in each game. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. While it may not be perfect, it provides a glimpse into how deeper metrics evaluate the team. Let's take a look at what the numbers say going into Week 5 of the season:

Oregon Ducks at Penn State Nittany Lions — Week 5

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 48.9%

Previous Percent Chance to Win: 48.1%

Analysis: The Ducks are getting slightly more respect here on the road, with it virtually going down as a pick-em on Saturday, according to the FPI. A win against Penn State in Happy Valley is going to be tough. By no means are the Ducks out of this game, but it's going to be a top-5 matchup, which is never easy to win on the road.

For more Penn State news and analysis, check out Nittany Lions Wire!

Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers — Week 7

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 68.2%

Previous Percent Chance to Win: 82.4%

Analysis: The Week 7 game between Indiana and Oregon is starting to look like it could be one of the best games of the year in the Big Ten. After Indiana destroyed No. 9 Illinois, 63-10, it sets up what could be a top-10 matchup in Eugene, assuming that both teams take care of business and get huge wins vs. Penn State and USC this next week. Either way, this will be a big spot for the Ducks at home, bouncing back from a tough loss or carrying momentum after a massive win against Penn State.

Oregon Ducks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights — Week 8

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 85.3%

Previous Percent Chance to Win: 83.3%

Analysis: It will be a long trip out to New Jersey to play Rutgers, but that may be the most challenging factor in this game for Oregon. While the Scarlet Knights have established themselves as at least a middling team in the Big Ten, the Ducks should still have the talent necessary to take them down on the road.

Oregon Ducks vs. Wisconsin Badgers — Week 9

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 95.2%

Previous Percent Chance to Win: 93.5%

Analysis: A year ago, Wisconsin gave Oregon all it could handle on the road in Camp Randall at night. This time around, there are some more questions facing the Badgers, and the Ducks get them at home. This should be a reasonably straightforward game at Autzen.

For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire!

Oregon Ducks at Iowa Hawkeyes — Week 11

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 80.4%

Previous Percent Chance to Win: 84.4%

Analysis: Going into Week 1, there were questions about how good Iowa could be with Mark Gronowski under center. He has failed to impress so far, to say the least. Iowa may have a great defense, and playing in Kinnick Stadium is going to be tough, but it feels like Oregon should be able to get this one done.

For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire!

Oregon Ducks vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers — Week 12

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 94.8%

Previous Percent Chance to Win: 94.6%

Analysis: A return home will be nice for Oregon after a taxing trip to Iowa, and while Minnesota is expected to be decent this season, the Ducks currently project as a team that should be able to handle this game with relative ease.

Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans — Week 13

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 66.6

Previous Percent Chance to Win: 68.7%

Analysis: Outside of Oregon and Penn State, USC certainly has been one of the most impressive teams in the Big Ten so far. This game is shaping up to be one of the toughest on Oregon's schedule.

For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire!

Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies — Week 14

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 73.8%

Previous Percent Chance to Win: 82.0%

Analysis: Another one of Oregon's big road games, this time in late November. The Ducks will have to go up to Seattle and face what could be a resurgent Washington team, potentially with a spot in the College Football Playoff conversation on the line. Rivalry week should be fun once again.

For more Washington news and analysis, check out UW Huskies Wire!

Overall Oregon Ducks Season Outlook

Percent Chance to Win Out: 6.7%

Previous FPI %: 9.4%

Percent Chance to Win Conference: 25.7%

Previous FPI %: 33.7%

Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 71.8%

Previous FPI %: 80.6%

Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 22.6%

Previous FPI %: 29.8%

Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 12.3%

Previous FPI %: 17.0%

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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: ESPN FPI increases Oregon Ducks' win probability vs. Penn State