With the 24th round completed, the Brasileirão is heading towards an exciting final stretch in EVERY sense: the fight for the title, for the Libertadores, for the Sudamericana, and for survival.Sever...
With the 24th round completed, the Brasileirão is heading towards an exciting final stretch in EVERY sense: the fight for the title, for the Libertadores, for the Sudamericana, and for survival.
Several teams still have games in hand. Atlético-MG, Bahia, Fluminense, Palmeiras, and Sport, for example, have played only 22 matches.
Because of this, Palmeiras (currently in third place) has a better chance of winning the title than Flamengo (the leader), according to the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).
Check out these and other curiosities below.
Title Chances 🏆
Palmeiras has a 40.3% chance of winning the title, while Flamengo has 32.6%. That’s because Verdão has one game less than the Rio club (22 to 23).
- Palmeiras: 40.3%
- Flamengo: 32.6%
- Cruzeiro: 23.8%
- Mirassol: 2.5%
- Bahia: 0.42%
- Botafogo: 0.38%
Other teams have less than a 0.1% chance of winning the title, according to UFMG data.
Libertadores Chances ✈️
In principle, the top four go straight to the Libertadores group stage. Fifth and sixth go to the Libertadores qualifiers.
- Flamengo: 99.89%
- Palmeiras: 99.83%
- Cruzeiro: 99.83%
- Mirassol: 92.6%
- Botafogo: 70.1%
- Bahia: 68.9%
- São Paulo: 28.8%
- Fluminense: 17.3%
- RB Bragantino: 5.3%
- Grêmio: 4.6%
Other teams have less than 4%.
Sudamericana Chances 👀
The Sudamericana zone (in principle) will go from seventh to 12th place. Flamengo, Palmeiras, and Cruzeiro, for example, have less than a 0.2% chance, as they are VERY close to the Libertadores.
- Fluminense: 68%
- São Paulo: 65.8%
- RB Bragantino: 62.5%
- Grêmio: 56.7%
- Corinthians: 53.6%
- Ceará: 49%
- Internacional: 44.9%
- Atlético-MG: 43.5%
- Santos: 41.5%
- Bahia: 30.5%
- Botafogo: 29.5%
- Vasco: 25%
- Juventude: 10.9%
Other teams have less than an 8% chance (either because they are much higher or much lower in the standings).
Relegation Risk 😱
The fight at the bottom is also INTENSE. The distance between Juventude (18th) and Inter (13th), for example, is just six points.
- Sport: 90.5%
- Fortaleza: 80.2%
- Vitória: 66%
- Juventude: 57.7%
- Vasco: 29.5%
- Santos: 15.8%
- Atlético-MG: 15.1%
- Internacional: 13.9%
- Ceará: 10%
- Corinthians: 8.1%
- Grêmio: 7%
Other teams have less than a 5% risk of relegation. The numbers are from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).
This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.
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Category: General Sports
