A comprehensive guide to clinch scenarios and scoreboard watching

How soon can the Mariners clinch a playoff spot, the AL West, or a bye? And how would that happen?

• The Mariners can clinch a postseason spot as early as tomorrow if the Mariners win and the Yankees win.
• The Mariners can clinch the AL West as early as Wednesday if either (a) the Mariners win two and the Astros lose one or (b) the Mariners win one and the Astros lose two.
• The Mariners can clinch the number 2 seed, and thus a first-round bye as early as Thursday if the Mariners sweep the Rockies and the Tigers lose at least one game against the Guardians.

Who should I be rooting for across MLB in this week’s series?

It depends on what you’re after. For instance, if you’re just hoping for the Mariners to make the playoffs with certainty, the fastest, you’re rooting for the Yankees. But the Yankees winning is ultimately bad for the Mariners odds of getting a bye. Given my confidence that the Mariners will make the playoffs, I am rooting for whatever outcomes maximize the odds that the Mariners get a bye and homefield advantage throughout. If that is what you’re looking for as well, I present below the outcomes that would do that. Part of that is trying to lock the Dodgers into the 3 seed as quickly as possible so that when they come to Seattle this weekend, they are incentivized to rest their best players and reset their rotation.

• Mariners over Rockies: duh
• A’s over Astros: but with a wrinkle, see below
• Guardians over Tigers (though ideally, taking the series 2-1): the AL Central winner having fewer wins than the Mariners helps the Mariners get the 2 seed, ensuring a first-round bye
• Red Sox over Blue Jays: the AL East winner having fewer wins than the Mariners helps the Mariners get the 1 seed, ensuring home field advantage
• White Sox over Yankees: same reasoning as rooting for the Jays to lose
• Phillies over Marlins: helps ensure that the Dodgers have to play in the Wild Card round
• Brewers over the Padres: the Dodgers can’t catch the Brewers for a higher seed, but the Padres losing helps secure the Dodgers the NL West
• Dodgers over Diamondbacks: this helps the Dodgers secure the NL West. But this is subject to change if the Phillies start losing. Then we want the Dodgers to lose, so they’re not chasing the Phillies for a bye this weekend

The biggest wrinkle here is the Astros series. Since the Mariners are playing at home, I have a strong preference for the Mariners clinching the AL West with a win of their own rather than with an Astros loss. I think the celebration will be more fun for the fans and the team that way. So once the Mariners’ magic number is 1, I’ll actually be rooting for the Astros to win that day, assuming this doesn’t drag out to the weekend. At that point I’ll shift back.

But as I said, it depends on what you’re after. If your mileage varies, sound off in the comments.