NFL Week 4 betting: 5 biggest storylines including reflecting on the worst bad beat ever

Week 3 in the NFL got a little crazy. 

At the end of the early slate of games there were blocked field goals everywhere, multiple backdoor covers, teams pulling wins out of the fire after almost blowing it and the type of bad beat that will haunt bettors for a long time. 

Here are the top five betting storylines going into Week 4, with all odds from BetMGM: 

Maybe the worst beat of all time

Can we talk about what might be the most ridiculous NFL bad beat of ... the decade? Millenium? Ever? 

It wasn't bad enough that the Rams' win expectancy reached 91.4% in the third quarter (via Next Gen Stats) when they led 26-7. There was never a point in which the spread of +3.5 was really threatened. The Eagles scored on fourth-and-goal in the final two minutes to take the lead, but even a two-point conversion would have only put them ahead by three points. They missed it, which actually helped Rams bettors. With the Eagles leading 27-26 with less than two minutes left, the odds of the game going to overtime were very small. Of all the money bet on one of the games of the week, 76% of it at BetMGM was on the Rams +3.5. That looked safe. 

Anyone with a Rams +3.5 ticket has already told you that it wasn't safe. A 44-yard field goal isn't that long, it doesn't need to be kicked low, and therefore they're normally not blocked. Even if they are, it could bounce to the side and the game is over. The kicking team could reflexively make a tackle. A recovering player might just fall on the ball. Or someone runs down a 336-pound defensive tackle before he runs all 61 yards for a score. But we know what happened. The Eagles blocked it, the ball bounced just right to massive tackle Jordan Davis (who was the Eagles' player of the game) and then it was rumble, young man, rumble. From the opening kickoff until the moment Davis started running with no time on the clock, the Rams covering the spread was never in any real danger. Then all of a sudden it was. 

If you said you've never seen a man that big run that fast, that might actually be true. Davis reached a high speed of 18.59 mph, the fastest speed by a player weighing more than 330 pounds since at least 2017 according to Next Gen Stats. He's the heaviest player ever to return a blocked kick 50 yards for a touchdown, the NFL said. A play like that has never happened before. 

And a beat like that might never happen again. 

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The largest spread

Injuries happen late in the season, so perhaps in December or early January we see a spread larger than Saints at Bills this week. But on paper, there's no bigger mismatch this season. 

The Bills are the Super Bowl favorites at BetMGM. The Saints have the longest Super Bowl odds at +100000, twice as long as the group of teams just above them at +50000. The Bills host the Saints on Sunday. And just to add to the mismatch, the Bills have a huge rest edge. They played last Thursday at home. The Saints traveled to Seattle for a late afternoon game Sunday, lost 44-13, then have to travel to the other side of the country for an early start in Week 4. 

The spread for the game is Bills -16.5. That's the largest spread of the season and it's possible that it won't be topped. 

Only 2 undefeated ATS teams

There are six 3-0 teams remaining in the NFL, which seems like a low number for late September. The number of teams that haven't lost against the spread is much smaller. 

Only two teams have covered the spread in all three games this season. The Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers are the two remaining undefeated ATS teams, according to Action Network's standings. The Chargers are a 6-point favorite against the Giants this week, but the undefeated Colts are a 3.5-point underdog at the Rams. 

And 3 winless ATS teams

Bad news is you came into the season backing the Broncos, Texans or Saints. Actually, if you came into the season backing the Saints, that's just a bad choice. 

The Broncos, Texans and Saints are the three teams that have yet to cover a spread this season. The Saints being on the list isn't a big surprise. Many expected them to be the worst team in the NFL and it looks like they will be. The Broncos were a popular pick to make it back to the playoffs and the Texans were the favorite to win the AFC South. Both have been disappointing. At least the Broncos have one straight up win. The Texans are a troubling 0-3 straight up. 

Many road favorites

Almost half of the Week 4 schedule features a road team being favored. And it's not out of the question the Seahawks, who are currently +1 at the Cardinals for Thursday's game, become the favorite in that game. 

The six road favorites among the 15 non neutral-site games (the Vikings and Steelers play in Ireland): Commanders, Chargers, Eagles, Ravens, Bears, and Packers. The Packers are the biggest road favorite, at -7 against a Cowboys team with a bad defense and CeeDee Lamb out due to an ankle injury.