Best and worst case scenarios for the 2025-26 Pittsburgh Penguins

There still seems to be a concern among some fans and media that the Pittsburgh Penguins haven’t fully embraced the idea of a rebuild enough, and still have a little too much talent on the roster for the 2025-26 season. They will not be a good team. But are they still a little TOO good for a potential run at the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes?

It’s hard for a team to truly bottom out when it still has one of the best players in hockey (Sidney Crosby) on it.

Evgeni Malkin will still have his moments.

Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell are still here.

Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty bring some young skill and talent to the lineup.

I can kind of see where that concern (if you want to call it that) might be coming from. But I don’t necessarily agree with it, because this team still isn’t likely to be very good. They’ve had all of those guys the past three years and still missed the playoffs. The young guys will have growing pains. Rust and Rakell might not be as productive as they were a year ago. Even all of them are good, the defense and goaltending will likely cancel out whatever quality play the forwards give them.

It’s almost certainly going to be a lottery team.

But there’s still a pretty wide range of possibilities on what this team could look like this season.

It’s a low-ceiling and a low floor.

The Penguins’ highest ceiling on the ice (and worst-case for rebuild): Compete for a wild-card spot

I am not saying they will actually get a wild-card spot, but I could envision a scenario where all of the variables at play fall in their favor and the team is way more competitive than anybody imagined. Crosby is still great. Young players make an immediate impact. Somebody in goal actually plays well. I mean, Tristan Jarry has had extended stretches in his career where he has played at an All-Star level. Just because something isn’t likely to happen doesn’t mean it WON’T happen. Maybe Arturs Silovs is good. Good goaltending and some high-level forwards can mask an awful lot of flaws. There’s not enough to make this a contender, but there’s enough to potentially make it a competitive team.

That would make for an exciting season, but it would probably result in another mid-first round pick. Which would not be totally ideal for the rebuild.

The Penguins farm system has dramatically improved over the past year, and there is actually some real talent in their top-10 prospect list. But they are still lacking that franchise-changing superstar that can bring it all together and be their long-term building block and focal point. They need some lottery luck to get it.

The best-case scenario for the short-term and the rebuild: Play competitive hockey and get draft lottery luck

There was a time where I fully supported the idea of complete tear down rebuilds and “tanking,” but after seeing so many of them fail, and after seeing so many of them take way longer than expected, I just don’t know if that’s the best approach in the modern-day NHL. Especially with the draft lottery odds being what they are, and the worst record potentially giving you the No.3 overall pick. You’re really putting your luck and future into an 18 percent chance the ping pong balls are going to fall your way. Teams like Detroit, Arizona/Utah and Vancouver went through rebuilds and never had lottery luck. There’s a world of difference in most draft classes between the No. 1 pick and the No. 3 pick.

You’re not always going to get the Sidney Crosby or the Gavin McKenna.

Plus, everybody loves the idea of a punted season until you have to actually watch what it looks like.

And then see how long it takes to come back from that.

So, in my mind, the best-case scenario for this season is the Penguins play competitive hockey. They are in most games. They play some exciting games. They win a few games. They are still a lottery team, but not a 22-win team bad. And then the lottery balls fall their way.

Over the past 10 lotteries we’ve seen five teams with the worst-record maintain the top pick.

We’ve also seen teams more from eighth, third, fifth, 10th to the No. 1 spot, and teams move from similar spots up to No. 2.

It’s all luck and you have no control over it.

Play competitive hockey, be interesting, and let the lottery balls do what they are going to do.

The worst-case scenario: The Penguins are truly terrible and get no lottery luck

This is what you don’t want. And it happened on a smaller scale this past season when they had their worst regular season in two decades and actually dropped two spots in the draft lottery results.

They could be worse this season if all of the variables mentioned above go in the opposite direction.

The goaltending is bad. The defense is as bad as advertised. Rust and/or Rakell get traded. The team legitimately bottoms out and finishes with one of the two-worst records in the league and is just unwatchable slop. This is the floor for this team. I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome, but it is a potential outcome. Especially if they go as young as we have heard they want to go with this roster.

If all of that happens, and they still don’t win the draft lottery and end up picking third or fourth, that would be a brutally devastating result.

I know the 2026 draft class is supposed to be incredibly top-heavy, but McKenna is still the prize you want. Not getting him after a season like that would be a real gut-punch.