Breaking down MLB playoff scenarios entering the final weekend of the regular season

As the final weekend of the regular season commences, the playoff races are still highly in flux. Eight teams have clinched playoff spots, but only one team — the Dodgers — is locked into a seed. There’s still one playoff spot to be decided in the National League. Meanwhile, in the American League, two divisions are still up for grabs, as well as three playoff spots. There’s a lot that will play out this weekend. Let’s take a look at the different scenarios for each league.

In the NL, the list is by current seed. All three divisions have been decided, and any movement will be minimal except for the last wild card spot.

In the AL, there are essentially two mini-playoff races playing out. That one is ordered so the two different races are grouped: the race for the AL East champion and top seed (between the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Yankees), and the race for the AL Central champion and the remaining two wild card spots (between the Guardians, Red Sox, Tigers, and Astros).

National League

Milwaukee Brewers

• They have clinched the NL Central and a spot in the NLDS. They would be the No. 1 seed if the season ended on Thursday.
• They clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with either one win over the Reds or one Phillies loss to the Twins.
• They clinch the No. 2 seed if they are swept by the Reds, and the Phillies sweep the Twins.

Philadelphia Phillies

• They have clinched the NL East and a spot in the NLDS. They would be the No. 2 seed if the season ended on Thursday.
• They clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if they sweep the Twins, and the Brewers are swept by the Reds.
• They clinch the No. 2 seed if they lose once to the Twins or the Brewers win once against the Reds.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• They have clinched the NL West and the No. 3 seed, regardless of what happens in their final three games. They will host either the Mets, Reds, or Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card Series.
• Any additional wins would only come into play if they make it to the World Series. In that scenario, they would hold tiebreakers over both the Blue Jays and Yankees, and they play the Mariners this weekend.

Chicago Cubs

• They have clinched a spot in the NL Wild Card Series. They would be the No. 4 seed if the season ended on Thursday.
• They clinch the No. 4 seed with a combination of two wins against the Cardinals and/or losses by the Padres to the Diamondbacks.
• They clinch the No. 5 seed if they lose two games and the Padres sweep, or if they are swept and the Padres win two games.

San Diego Padres

• They have clinched a spot in the NL Wild Card Series. They would be the No. 5 seed if the season ended on Thursday.
• They clinch the No. 4 seed if they win two games against the Diamondbacks and the Cubs are swept by the Cardinals, or if they sweep and the Cubs lose two games.
• They clinch the No. 5 seed with any combination of two losses and/or Cubs wins.

New York Mets

• They hold a one-game lead over the Reds and a two-game lead over the Diamonbacks, but they do not hold either tiebreaker. They would be the No. 6 seed if the season ended on Thursday, and can only be the No. 6 seed.
• They clinch the No. 6 seed if they sweep the Marlins.
• If they do not sweep the Marlins, they need to finish with a better record than both the Reds and the Diamondbacks.

Cincinnati Reds

• They are currently one game behind the Mets and one game ahead of the Diamondbacks. They hold the tiebreaker over both teams. They can only be the No. 6 seed.
• To get back into a playoff spot, they need to win and have the Mets lose at least one game.
• They clinch the No. 6 seed if they win one more game than the Mets, and the Diamondbacks lose at least one game.
• In the event of a three-way tie between the Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks, the Reds would win the tiebreaker because of their regular-season victories over the other two teams. (Reds 8-4, Diamondbacks 6-6, Mets 4-8)

Arizona Diamondbacks

• They are currently two games behind the Mets and one game behind the Reds. They hold the tiebreaker over the Mets but would lose to the Reds. They can only be the No. 6 seed.
• To get back into a playoff spot, they must win two games at a minimum.
• To clinch the No. 6 seed if they go 3-0 against the Padres, they would need the Mets and Reds to both lose at least two games each.
• To clinch the No. 6 seed if they go 2-1 against the Padres, they would need the Mets and Reds to both be swept.
• Any other result eliminates them from playoff contention.

American League

Toronto Blue Jays

• They have clinched a playoff spot. If the season ended on Thursday, they would be the AL East champion and the No. 1 seed. They will host at least one postseason series.
• They hold the tiebreaker over the Yankees and Mariners.
• They clinch the No. 1 seed if they finish tied with or ahead of the Yankees and Mariners.
• They clinch the No. 2 seed if they finish tied with or ahead of the Yankees, but lose two more games than the Mariners.
• They clinch the No. 4 seed if they finish behind the Yankees.

Seattle Mariners

• They have clinched the AL West and a spot in the ALDS. They would be the No. 2 seed if the season ended on Thursday.
• They lose the tiebreaker to both the Blue Jays and Yankees.
• They clinch the No. 1 seed if they win at least two games and have a better record than the AL East champion.
• They clinch the No. 2 seed if they finish tied with or behind the AL East champion.

New York Yankees

• They have clinched a playoff spot and would be the No. 4 seed if the season ended on Thursday. They will host at least one postseason series.
• They hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners but lose the tiebreaker to the Blue Jays.
• They clinch the No. 1 seed if they finish ahead of the Blue Jays and tied with or ahead of the Mariners.
• They clinch the No. 2 seed if they finish ahead of the Blue Jays but behind the Mariners.
• They clinch the No. 4 seed if they finish tied with or behind the Blue Jays.

Cleveland Guardians

• They currently hold the No. 3 seed and lead the AL Central, but have not clinched a playoff spot.
• They hold the tiebreaker over the Astros and Tigers, but lose the tiebreaker to the Red Sox.
• They clinch a playoff spot with a combination of two wins and/or Astros losses.
• They clinch the No. 3 seed if they finish tied or ahead of the Tigers.
• They clinch the No. 5 seed if they finish behind the Tigers, have a better record than the Red Sox, and are either tied with or have a better record than the Astros.
• They clinch the No. 6 seed if they finish behind the Tigers and either:
  • They are tied with or behind the Red Sox, but are tied with or ahead of the Astros.
  • They are behind the Astros, but are ahead of the Red Sox.
• They would be eliminated from the playoffs if they finish behind both the Tigers and Astros, and are tied or behind the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox

• They currently hold the No. 5 seed. They have not clinched a playoff spot and will be a Wild Card if they make the playoffs.
• They hold tiebreakers over the Guardians and Astros. They are 0-3 against the Tigers this season, but play them this weekend. Because of this, the Red Sox would lose a tiebreaker to the Tigers if they finish tied with them. (A sweep would tie the season series, but also guarantee the Red Sox finish ahead of the Tigers.)
• They clinch a playoff spot with one win this weekend against the Tigers.
• They clinch the No. 5 seed with a series win over the Tigers. They can also take the No. 5 seed if they lose two or three games to the Tigers, but the Tigers win the AL Central and the Red Sox are tied with or ahead of both the Guardians and Astros.
• They clinch the No. 6 seed if they lose the series to the Tigers, the Tigers do not win the AL Central, and they are tied with or ahead of the Astros.
• They also clinch the No. 6 seed if they lose the series to the Tigers, the Tigers win the AL Central, and either:
  • They are tied with or ahead of the Guardians, but behind the Astros.
  • They are behind the Guardians, but tied with or ahead of the Astros.
• They would be eliminated from playoff contention if all of the following happen:
  • The Red Sox are swept by the Tigers.
  • The Astros sweep the Angels.
  • The Guardians win at least two games against the Rangers.

Detroit Tigers

• They currently hold the No. 6 seed. They have not clinched a playoff spot, but can be either a Wild Card or the AL Central champion.
• They hold the tiebreaker over the Astros, but lose the tiebreaker to the Guardians. They currently have a 3-0 advantage over the Red Sox and play this weekend, and would hold the tiebreaker in any scenario where the two teams finish the season tied.
• They clinch a playoff spot with any combination of two wins and/or Astros losses.
• They clinch the No. 3 seed if they finish ahead of the Guardians.
• They clinch the No. 5 seed if they win the series against the Red Sox, but do not finish ahead of the Guardians.
• They clinch the No. 6 seed if they lose the series to the Red Sox, are tied with or behind the Guardians, and tied with or ahead of the Astros.
• They would be eliminated from playoff contention in one of the following two scenarios:
  • Scenario 1
    • The Tigers go 1-2 against the Red Sox.
    • The Guardians win at least one game against the Rangers.
    • The Astros sweep the Angels.
  • Scenario 2
    • The Tigers are swept by the Red Sox.
    • The Astros win at least two games against the Angels.

Houston Astros

• They are currently one game behind the Tigers for the final Wild Card spot.
• They do not win any tiebreaker against any playoff contender.
• The Astros must win at least two games and get help from other teams.
• There is a specific scenario where they could be the No. 5 seed.
  • The Astros sweep the Angels.
  • The Tigers sweep the Red Sox.
  • The Rangers win at least two games against the Guardians.
  • In this scenario, the Tigers win the AL Central at 89 wins. The Astros finish at 88 wins, Red Sox at 87 wins, and Guardians at 86 or 87 wins.
• For the Astros to get the No. 6 seed if they go 3-0 against the Angels, one of the following has to happen:
  • The Tigers sweep the Red Sox.
  • The Red Sox win at least two games over the Tigers.
  • If the Tigers win exactly two games over the Red Sox, then the Rangers have to win at least two games against the Guardians.
• For the Astros to get the No. 6 seed if they go 2-1 against the Angels, the Red Sox have to sweep the Tigers. Any other result would eliminate the Astros from playoff contention.

AL Multi-Team Tiebreakers

• It is possible for all four of the above teams (Guardians, Red Sox, Tigers, Astros) to finish in a four-way tie at 88 wins. If that happens, the first step would be to break it down into a three-team tiebreaker by deciding the AL Central champion. Since the Guardians hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers, they would win the AL Central.
• For the remaining three teams (Tigers, Red Sox, and Astros), here’s how the tiebreaker would play out.
  • The Tigers would claim the No. 5 seed. (9-4 vs. other two teams)
  • The Red Sox would claim the No. 6 seed. (5-7 vs. other two teams)
  • The Astros would be eliminated from playoff contention. (4-8 vs. other two teams)
• There is also a possible tiebreaker where the Guardians, Red Sox, and Astros finish tied at 87 wins. Here’s how that tiebreaker would play out.
  • The Red Sox would claim the No. 5 seed. (8-4 vs. other two teams)
  • The Guardians would claim the No. 6 seed. (6-6 vs. other two teams)
  • The Astros would be eliminated from playoff contention. (4-8 vs. other two teams)