Big 12 football expert picks and predictions for Week 5 of the college football season

The 2025 college football season is now four full weeks in, and the Big 12 seems to have two teams emerging from the rest in Texas Tech and Iowa State. The Red Raiders are coming off a big-time win against Utah, while the Cyclones are set to face a resurgent Arizona team. The Week 5 Big 12 slate features a couple of intriguing matchups that could impact the title race down the road.

Every week, our staff gathers to pick every Big 12 football game. It is a challenging task, especially considering the conference's crowded nature. Whether Texas Tech, Iowa State, Arizona State, or TCU pulls away and becomes the team to beat remains to be seen, but this week should give us a clearer picture.

So, how will Week 5 play out in the Big 12? We have only eight games on the schedule, with two scheduled for Friday evening. Our Buffaloes Wire staff picked all eight games in the conference straight up.

Here are our expert picks for Week 5. But first, here are the standings so far from our writers through three weeks.

All games are scheduled for Saturday, September 27, unless otherwise noted, and all times are Mountain Time.

Standings so far

Charlie Strella: 40-9

Jack Freeman: 36-14

Griffin Dreifaldt: 39-10

Arizona State vs. No. 25 TCU

Friday, September 26, 7:00 p.m., Fox

Griffin: TCU

It's tough to bet against Kenny Dillingham and Arizona State at home, but I have to. ASU barely escaped with a last-second field goal win over Baylor on the road last week. Baylor and TCU are comparable, but TCU boasts a stronger defense. I'm taking Josh Hoover and the Horned Frogs to go into Tucson and knock off the Sun Devils in a classic Big 12 showdown.

Jack: TCU

The premier matchup of the week, which could be a Big 12 Championship game preview, sees TCU visit Tempe fresh off a dominant win over SMU. Outside of Texas Tech, the Horned Frogs have the best resume in the conference, thanks to impressive performances from quarterback Josh Hoover and wideout Eric McAlister. The Sun Devils haven't shown the ability to hang with an offense as loaded as TCU's; give me the Horned Frogs winning with ease.

Xavier: TCU

TCU's offense is buzzing, averaging 500 yards per game. The Sun Devil defense has not performed well this season. The Horned Frogs' offense should dice up ASU as TCU covers the spread, winning by a touchdown.

Charlie: Arizona State

I went against the Sun Devils, and they burned me. I think the Arizona State pass rush can get to Hoover, and its offense should be able to hang with TCU's firepower. I see this game coming down to the wire, and I like the home team to eke out the win.

Houston at Oregon State

Friday, September 26, 8:30 p.m., ESPN

Griffin: Houston

Jack: Houston

Xavier: Houston

Charlie: Houston

Oregon State should be a better team than what they have shown, but they have struggled mightily. Houston, on the other hand, has impressed in every game this year and should handle business on the road.

Kansas vs. Cincinnati

10:00 a.m., TNT

Griffin: Cincinnati

This is definitely a controversial pick. Everyone's all in on the Jayhawks and their explosive offense—it's hard not to be—but I'm taking the Bearcats on the road in Lawrence. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is electric, no doubt, but I think Cincinnati is a bit undervalued in this spot. I trust Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby and the Cincy offense to control the tempo with long, methodical, run-heavy drives that keep Daniels and the Jayhawk offense off the field.

Jack: Kansas

Xavier: Cincinnati

The Bearcats have a top-five passing offense in the Big 12, and Kansas' defense is also legit. Besides their rivalry game against Missouri, they have only allowed 17 points all season. I see this game as either a defensive slugfest or an offensive shootout, but I think the Bearcats will win in a close one.

Charlie: Kansas

This will be fun. Both teams will play aggressively, trying to outdo each other. Cincinnati's defense will be on the field for too long, and that will show in the fourth quarter.

Kansas State vs. UCF

10:00 a.m., FS1

Griffin: UCF

Are you really picking against Kansas State at home against an unproven UCF team? Yes, I am. A curse is a curse, and as mentioned early in the season, losing the Week 0 game in Ireland can absolutely derail your season, just ask the 2024 Florida State team. UCF finds a way to sneak out a win in Manhattan, Kansas.

Jack: UCF

Kansas State's disastrous season heads into Big 12 Conference play with one last chance to get it right against UCF. The Knights impressed last week against North Carolina, but I fear that says more about Bill Belichick's squad than it does about Scott Frost's. The Wildcats need a big day from Avery Johnson to get back on track, coming off a bye before the season truly gets off the rails. However, don't see that happening, with the Knights utilizing their mobile quarterback to tear the Wildcats to shreds.

Xavier: UCF

Kansas State is coming off the bye week, but UCF has been rolling. The Golden Knight defense allows the fifth fewest yards and the second fewest points in the Big 12. Their offense is also capable, and against the abysmal K-State defense, they should shine. UCF should take this one on the road and continue to play well in Scott Frost's first year back.

Charlie: Kansas State

The Wildcats are the much more talented team and could just as easily be 4-0 instead of 1-3, having lost all three games by a total of 12 points. Kansas State needs to find consistency, which is easier said than done. UCF gets out of rhythm often, and Kansas State uses the bye week to its advantage.

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor

1:30 p.m., ESPN2

Griffin: Baylor

Oklahoma State parted ways with long-time head coach Mike Gundy this week after a rough start to the 2025 season, and unfortunately for the Cowboys, things won't get any easier. Baylor and quarterback Sawyer Robertson roll into Stillwater, where nearly three touchdowns favor them.

Jack: Baylor

Xavier: Baylor

Charlie: Baylor

West Virginia vs. Utah

1:30 p.m., Fox

Griffin: Utah

Utah bounces back after a tough home loss to Texas Tech last week. Utes win by two touchdowns or more.

Jack: Utah

Xavier: Utah

Charlie: Utah

No. 13 Iowa State vs. Arizona

5:00 p.m., ESPN

Griffin: Iowa State

I wish this game were in Arizona because I'd be all over the Wildcats, but it's not. It's in Ames, Iowa, and it's hard to see the Cyclones letting this one slip away at home. Arizona's miracle start to the season comes to an end as they suffer their first loss of the year to Iowa State and quarterback Rocco Becht.

Jack: Iowa State

I was very close to picking Arizona to come out with the upset on this one, so don't be surprised if this one turns into a nail-biter. Noah Fifita has finally returned to his 2023 self, making some highlight plays in situations where the Wildcats need it. Iowa State has shown to be a team that loves close games, where a few explosive plays turn out to be the deciding factor. As much as I'd love to see an upset, I'm a staple of team chaos. The Cyclones seem to be built to win these types of games.

Xavier: Iowa State

Charlie: Iowa State

Arizona has found ways to win, but has not totally established an identity. They stop the run, but Iowa State's rushing attack is on another level. Rocco Becht will be solid, and the home-field advantage will be a factor.

Colorado vs. No. 24 BYU

8:15 p.m., ESPN

We will share our Colorado-BYU predictions in a separate post, where each staff member will provide a final score prediction and offer some thoughts. Colorado is hoping to make a significant statement against a ranked BYU team.

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 predictions and picks for college football Week 5