Is Georgia out of the playoffs? Explaining Bulldogs' CFP chances after loss to Alabama

Is Georgia out of the playoffs? Explaining Bulldogs' CFP chances after loss to Alabama originally appeared on The Sporting News

Perfection is hard to attain in the SEC. Despite the Georgia Bulldogs' best efforts, they, too, fell victim to the most venomous of daggers — a 24-21 defeat to the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday night.

The game was close, as most contests between the two rivals are. There were moments when Kirby Smart's side looked poised to stride out in front; none more notable than when the Bulldogs breached the Tide's red zone while down three early in the fourth quarter.

Unfortunately for them, Alabama's defense held. Ty Simpson catapulted himself into the national spotlight with a wondrous display while Kalen DeBoer silenced his critics by finally winning the big one in Crimson Tide colors. Meanwhile, for Georgia, Kirby Smart's rancid record against his former employers came under scrutiny once more.

The SEC is a gauntlet, one that can chew up and spit out even the most gifted of programs. The Bulldogs know this all too well. For all of their successes under Smart, they've only finished with an unblemished conference record three times.

So, what does this loss mean for Georgia's playoff hopes? Can its dreams of returning to college football's promised land be fulfilled in 2025? Or did its conquest at the hands of Alabama spell an end to its search for a third title in four seasons? Here's what you need to know.

MORE: Inside Kirby Smart's coaching struggles vs. Alabama

Is Georgia out of the playoffs?

It's hard to imagine the Bulldogs falling out of the playoffs entirely after a three-point defeat to the Crimson Tide. What's likelier, however, is a fairly precipitous drop down the AP standings -- one that would make their margin for error that much slimmer going forward.

Alabama's Week 1 defeat to Florida State was deemed unacceptable by AP voters. Although we're still weeks away from formal CFP deliberations, the committee would likely agree — especially after the Seminoles fell to unranked Virginia on Sept. 26.

At the moment, Georgia's defeat looks a bad one. That could change in the weeks to come; the Crimson Tide will have ample opportunities to take on -- and beat -- SEC powerhouses, including No. 18 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Missouri, No. 15 Tennessee, No. 4 LSU and No. 7 Oklahoma. If Alabama gets through all -- or even most -- of that slate unscathed, the Bulldogs' loss should look a little more reasonable.

MORE: James Franklin, Drew Allar get closer – but Penn State still can't beat the top-10 narrative

Conversely, Georgia has a host of intriguing matchups on the horizon -- namely home duels with No. 13 Ole Miss (Oct. 18) and No. 10 Texas (Nov. 15) and a road clash with No. 15 Georgia Tech (Nov. 28). Escape that run with no additional losses and it'll be hard to deny the Bulldogs a spot in the postseason.

That's a big hypothetical, though. Three-loss SEC sides got CFP consideration deep into the winter, with the Tide even landing a spot in the Big Dance. That can't be expected to happen every season, though. So, Georgia's best way to cement itself as playoff-bound is to keep winning. Another loss might not sink its chances. Two? That seems more unlikely.

MORE: Why Garrett Nussmeier, LSU offense are underperforming in 2025

College Football Playoff bracket projection

The Bulldogs entered the weekend as a projected top-four seed, with The Sporting News' Bill Bender listing them as the No. 2 seed in his latest CFP projections.

Saturday's result will shake things up. But Georgia wasn't the only major player to fall. So too did Penn State (No. 3 in Bender's projections), LSU (No. 5 in Bender's projections) and the aforementioned Florida State (No. 7 in Bender's projections). Indiana (No. 9 in Bender's projections) squeaked past unranked Iowa, while Texas A&M (No. 9 in AP poll) scored only 16 points in a win over Auburn.

All of that is to say, there's bound to be changes in the CFP's outlook in future weeks.

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With that, here is a closer look at Bender's projections.

Projected first-round byes: 

• No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 Miami

Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups:

• No. 12 Memphis vs. No. 5 LSU
• No. 11 Oklahoma vs. No. 6 Oregon
• No. 10 Texas Tech vs. No. 7 Florida State
• No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 8 Texas

College Football Playoff bubble teams: Ole Miss, Iowa State, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt

In terms of SEC sides, the Bulldogs likely fall behind unbeaten Texas, Ole Miss and Oklahoma. Alabama could also very well leapfrog Georgia. Tennessee and Vanderbilt are creeping up the ladder, although a jump into the top-12 might be premature. The difference between LSU's defeat to the Rebels and Georgia's loss to the Tide feels fairly insignificant, so it's hard to know which team will rank higher in the standings come the end of the week.