It’s not too early to start thinking about the postseason.
The Buffalo Bills are sitting pretty securely in the AFC East’s number-one spot with a perfect 3-0 record while the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are still looking for their first win. Of course, the Bills also (currently) hold the tie breaker over both of these teams with their Week 2 and 3 wins. While the New England Patriots have a tally in the win column, they aren’t going to overtake the Bills this week no matter what happens.
Despite being a perfect 3-0, the Bills are not currently the conference’s top seed due to all the little nuances that come into the NFL’s rules on breaking ties in the standings. In case you need a reminder, here’s how that goes:
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
- Strength of victory (SOV)
- Strength of schedule (SOS)
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
- Best net points in common games
- Best net points in all games
- Best net touchdowns in all games
- Coin toss
Confused? Don’t worry – it very seldom even gets to SOV or SOS, although for rooting interests we will consider those. What you need to know after that is that the Buffalo Bills need to score a lot of points every week, and Josh Allen and James Cook have that taken care of.
So, with all of that out of the way, here’s a look at what the standings look like before we begin Week 4’s games.
AFC EAST
- Buffalo Bills (3-0)
- New England Patriots (1-2)
- New York Jets (0-3)
- Miami Dolphins (0-3)
AFC Playoff Picture heading into Week 4
- Los Angeles Chargers (3-0)
- Indianapolis Colts (3-0)
- Buffalo Bills (3-0)
- Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
- Las Vegas Raiders (1-2)
- Baltimore Ravens (1-2)
- Denver Broncos (1-2)
- New England Patriots (1-2)
- Cleveland Browns (1-2)
- Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)
- Tennessee Titans (0-3)
- Miami Dolphins (0-3)
- New York Jets (0-3)
- Houston Texans (0-3)
Don’t let these early standings fool you, some of these bottom teams are still very much a threat to the Bills’ postseason. These rankings will change drastically over the next six weeks when things really start heating up, so it’s a great if the Bills can start increasing their lead over the perennial contenders now. Here’s a look at what Bills fans should be rooting for this week.
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AFC EAST Week 4 Bills rooting interests
Buffalo Bills (3-0) over New Orleans Saints (0-3), Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT (CBS)
This is a no-brainer, right? We always want the Bills to win. This is the second of a three-game homestand, and the Bills are in a Farewell Season tour as they get ready to close the gates to Highmark Stadium at the end of the year. The Bills were undefeated at home last season and are 2-0 so far this year. While the Saints have the best road-team winning record in Buffalo all-time, none of those wins have come during the Josh Allen era. The Bills just need to keep doing Bills-things and not get trapped in records or standings. So, obviously, Go Bills!
Carolina Panthers (1-2) over New England Patriots (1-2), Sunday 1 p.m. EDT (FOX)
The Bills will play both the Panthers and Patriots over the next five weeks, so their SOS and SOV scores would change identically no matter which of these two teams won this week. But it’s (almost) always right to root against the division team. Plus, it’s the Patriots – and we all know, they aren’t well-liked in Western New York.
New York Jets (0-3) over Miami Dolphins (0-3), Monday 7:15 p.m. EDT (ESPN)
Remember when I said not to worry about anything past SOS or SOV? Well, we do have to go a little further than that to pick a favorite for this game. Since the Bills beat the Jets by 20 and the Dolphins by 10, keeping Miami a little further down the list of teams who might make a mid- or late-season run at a playoff spot is the best way to go here.
Week 4 games that impact the Bills
Baltimore Ravens (1-2) over Kansas City Chiefs (1-2), Sunday 4:25 p.m. EDT (CBS)
These are two perennial contenders for the AFC one seed by the end of the season, so let’s look at what the results from this game mean for the Bills. With Buffalo having the Week 1 over Baltimore, they hold the ultimate tiebreaker over the Ravens. A Baltimore win this week, puts both teams 3 games behind the Bills. A Kansas City win drops the Ravens four games back but only puts the Chiefs two games behind the Bills (one if Buffalo doesn’t win the earlier game). So, Ravens it is for Bills Mafia this week.
New York Giants (0-3) over the Los Angeles Charger (3-0), Sunday 1 p.m. EDT (CBS)
The Chargers currently have the top spot in the AFC due to the leagues tie-breaking process, so they need a couple of losses to move them out of that seat. While it’s unlikely that the Giants are going to find a way to drop the Chargers, despite having the homefield advantage this week, we can still root for it.
Los Angeles Rams (2-1) over Indianapolis Colts (3-0), Sunday 4:05 p.m. EDT (FOX)
This is another game where results could let the Bills jump to the top of the leaderboard. With Indianapolis ahead of Buffalo by one slot, a Bills win early on Sunday, coupled with a Colts loss in the later gamer, could see the teams swap seats.
Denver Broncos (1-2) over Cincinnati Bengals (2-1), Monday 8:15 p.m. (ABC)
The Bengals are just a game behind the Bills, so putting some distance between them would be great. Yes, Cincinnati is going to be without Joe Burrow for at least the next several months but burying them down in the middle of the AFC pack before he returns would make the end of the season a little less stressful for Bills fans.
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1), Sunday 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)
This game is being played in Ireland, so it is a very early game for those of us who are watching stateside. But, just like the game listed above, the idea here is to put distance between the Bills and teams who they typically find themselves battling for position with toward the end of the season.
The rest of the NFL Week 4 Bills rooting interests
Atlanta Falcons (1-2) over Washington Commanders (2-1) – SOS
Detroit Lions (2-1) over Cleveland Browns (1-2) – SOS
Houston Texans (0-3) over Tennessee Titans (0-3) – SOS
San Francisco 49ers (3-0) over Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) – NFC over AFC
Chicago Bears (1-2) over Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) – NFC over AFC
Games that don’t affect the Bills
Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Chicago Bears (1-2)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0) – I know, I know … The Bills play these teams. But, yes, teams – plural. Which means that the win/loss will balance out and not change SOS or the win/loss/tie scenario that sits at number eight on the list of tiebreaking options. The only way this game affects the Bills is if the Bills beat one of them and lost to the other. But we have no way of knowing that yet. So, if you just absolutely must pick someone to root for, pick the one you feel Buffalo is most likely to beat later in the season so that the Bills SOV score goes up at the end of the year.
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Optimistic AFC standings after Week 4
So, if all the bounces go the Bills way and all the right teams win, this is what the standings in the AFC would look like on Tuesday morning.
- 1. Buffalo Bills (4-0)
- 2. Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)
- 3. Indianapolis Colts (3-1)
- 4. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
- 5. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
- 6. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)
- 7. Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
- 8. Denver Broncos (2-2)
- 9. Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)
- 10. New England Patriots (1-3)
- 11. Cleveland Browns (1-3)
- 12. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)
- 13. New York Jets (1-3)
- 14. Houston Texans (1-3)
- 15. Tennessee Titans (0-4)
- 16. Miami Dolphins (0-4)
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Now we know who to root for, who to root against, and what games to have playing in your multi-view browser as we prepare for a weekend full of football.
Go Bills!
Category: General Sports
