Opponent Preview: The Los Angeles Rams

In the Colts first game outside of the Midwest this season, they take on a Rams coming off of a brutal collapse vs the defending Champion Eagles. The Rams have lost now 3 straight games against the Eagles, including last years playoffs, and are looking for a get-right game against the undefeated Colts. The Rams are so far undefeated against AFC South opponents this season, beating both the winless Texans and the winless Titans in the first two weeks of the season. This will be a crucial measuring stick game for both teams, who have faced 2 easier opponents as well as one tough one thus far in 2025.

Rams Stat Ranks VS Colts Stat Ranks

Offense

• Points Scored Per Game: 24.3 (11th) | 34.3 (Tied 2nd)
• Yards Per Game: 363.7 (5th) | 418.7 (2nd)
• Yards Per Play: 6 (5th) | 6.6 (1st)
• 3rd Down Conversion Rate: 42.86% (11th) | 41.67% (13th)
• Red Zone TD Rate: 46.15% (23rd) | 43.75% (26th)
• Turnovers Per Game: 1 (Tied 12th) | 0 (Tied 1st)
• Punts Per Game: 3 (Tied 22nd) | 0.3 (1st)
• EPA/Play: 0.02 (Tied 10th) | 0.22 (1st)

The Rams Offense has been arguably a top 10 Offense this season, and therefore present the toughest challenge for the Colts Defense so far in 2025. Veteran QB Matthew Stafford is the third oldest QB in the NFL at age 37, but his cannon of an arm has shown no signs of slowing down. With a talented group of players with star Wide Receiver Puka Nacua, new veteran addition Davante Adams, steady Tight End Tyler Higbee, and former Fighting Irishman Kyren Williams playing with a solid pair of Tackles in Alaric Jackson and Rob Havenstein, the Rams have formed a steady and consistent Offense for Sean McVay to work with and scheme up.

Passing Offense

• Pass Rate: 55.5% (20th) | 47.4% (30th)
• Passing Yards Per Game: 236.7 (Tied 10th) | 265.3 (4th)
• Passing Yards Per Dropback: 7 (7th) | 8.8 (1st)
• Play Action Rate: 38.6% (2nd) | 40% (1st)
• Pressure Rate Allowed: 33% (12th) | 32.3% (10th)
• Time To Throw: 2.62 (4th) | 2.69 (Tied 8th)
• Yards After Catch: 292 (26th) | 386 (5th)
• EPA/Pass: 0 (13th) | 0.36 (1st)

The Rams Passing Offense has been the most play action heavy in the NFL outside of the Colts. The threat of Kyren Williams in the run game (and to a lesser extent backup Blake Corum) combined with Matthew Stafford’s still elite ball velocity capitalizes on defense’s hesitation.

The pressure rate allowed is a bit deceptive, as Matthew Stafford at QB has the fastest release time of any starting QB in the NFL (among 35 QBs with 39 or more dropbacks) at 2.53 seconds. The Rams have a good pair of Tackles, but the interior of the offensive line has been more suspect.

A key matchup for the Colts will be moving Stafford outside of the pocket with good interior rush from DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Neville Gallimore, and Adetomiwa Adebawore. However even when defenses get pressure on Stafford, its not a guarantee for sacks, as the veteran QB is masterful at avoiding pass rush with his pocket movement and pressure sense. When you play 17 years in the NFL, you pick up on a thing or two.

Stafford buys time to throw downfield, throwing at the 12th farthest average depth of throw (8.5) in the NFL, and is the top graded passer on throws +20 yards at a perfect 99.9 (8/13 but has 2 drops, 242 yards, 2 TDs). Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are his primary targets, and thus far he hasn’t been afraid to go to them a lot. He has good reason to trust them, as Nacua has developed into one of the best WRs in the NFL this early in his NFL career, and Adams has been one best Wide Receivers in the NFL since 2017 (6 straight Pro Bowls from 2017-2022, 3x 1st Team All Pro in that span).

The Rams do have some injury questions among their key offensive contributors with Right Tackle Rob Havenstein, Davante Adams, and top 2 Tight Ends Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson all questionable for Week 4. The Rams have already used their depth Tight ends before with Higbee and Parkinson missing time earlier in the season, giving blocking Tight End Davis Allen and 2nd Round rookie Terrance Ferguson some playing time. However missing Havenstein and Adams would be devastating, with the wide receivers behind Adams (Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington) being more inconsistent; and the backup Tackles David Quessenberry and Warren McClendon Jr. being less reliable in pass protection.

Puka Nacua will still be the Colts top focus. He is a tough matchup irregardless of the coverage, ranking well vs man and elite vs zone. He also moves around the alignment a lot, so far 50% of his snaps have come in the slot (but if Adams is out or on a more limited snap count he could be more outside with Tutu Atwell being a slot exclusive player getting more run in the Offense). Charvarius Ward, Mekhi Blackmon, Xavier Howard, and Mike Hilton likely will all be tested against him. Still, this is a tough matchup for the Colts first game without star Nickel Kenny Moore II, but hopefully new vet addition Mike Hilton can be the next man up. McVay also loves to put Nacua in motion on inside crosser routes which means the Colts Linebackers will also be tested by him as well. Cam Bynum providing help over the top to prevent the big play will be crucial as well, as Stafford’s arm talent over the top of defenses in undeniable.

Rushing Offense

• Rushing Yards Per Game: 127 (Tied 9th) | 153.3 (3rd)
• Rushing Yards Per Carry: 4.7 (10th) | 4.6 (Tied 11th)
• Yards Before Contact Per Carry: 0.51 (29th) | 0.93 (21st)
• Yards After Contact Per Carry: 4.29 (2nd) | 3.7 (6th)
• Stuffed Rate: 12.3% (7th) | 13% (8th)
• Success Rate: 49.4% (3rd) | 47% (4th)
• Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Carry: 1.3 (2nd) | 0.6 (Tied 10th)
• EPA/Run: 0.04 (Tied 7th) | 0.10 (4th)

Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are a pair of hard-nosed SOB runners. Both of them rank in the top half of runners after contact, and with both of them paired together the Rams always have a fresh set of legs ready. Neither are the fastest in terms of top speed, but make up for it with shiftiness, good vision, and explosive acceleration paired with low pad level and power.

The Rams Offensive line does a good job at preventing them from getting stuffed for little to no gain, but has struggled at getting to second level defenders to open up yards before contact. The Colts need to negate the run threat or lessen it, as the Rams Play Action offense relies upon that threat to make their passing game truly hum.

The Rams favor running plays under center, as Kyren Williams has ran for a higher percentage of his plays under center than any other back in the NFL per Next Gen Stats. The Rams also have a preference to run to the right side, doing so on 44 of their 75 rushing plays and getting 4.55 Yards per Carry on runs to the right (4.24 Yards Per Carry to the left excluding Puka Nacua’s 45 yard jet sweep to the left versus the Titans). Schematically the Rams run a mixed blocking scheme. They favor gap blocking over zone slightly (37 gap to 34 zone designed run plays).

Defense

• Points Allowed Per Game: 20.3 (14th) | 18.7 (Tied 9th)
• Yards Per Game Allowed: 268.3 (5th) | 272.3 (7th)
• Yards Per Play Allowed: 4.4 (Tied 4th) | 5 (Tied 13th)
• Takeaways Per Game: 1.3 (Tied 10th) | 1.7 (Tied 5th)
• EPA/Play Allowed: -0.012 (Tied 5th) | -0.11 (10th)

The Rams Defense is one of the best in the NFL, and a big test for the Colts Offense. They lead in NFL in sacks 12 (tied with Broncos and Seahawks), with a mighty group of pass rushers with Jared Verse, Byron Young, Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, and rookie Josiah Stewart. They run the 13th highest Zone coverage and their blitz percentage of 25% is 19th (just ahead of the 20th most blitz heavy Colts 24.8%), so they aren’t afraid to bring in pressure from a variety of sources.

Passing Defense

• Passing Yards Per Game Allowed: 165.3 (6th) | 178.3 (8th)
• Passing Yards Per Dropback Allowed: 4.8 (Tied 4th) | 5 (Tied 7th)
• Pressure Rate: 43.8% (4th) | 28.3% (27th)
• Blitz Rate: 25% (19th) | 24.8% (20th)
• Time To Throw Allowed: 2.83 (21st) | 2.75 (Tied 12th)
• Yards After Catch Allowed: 233 (4th) | 332 (Tied 16th)
• EPA/Pass Allowed: -0.2 (Tied 7th) | -0.23 (4th)

The Rams Defense has gotten a consistent pass rush out of their line, with Jared Verse in particular being their brightest star. Bernhard Raimann, Quenton Nelson, Tanor Bortolini, and Braden Smith will have their toughest trench battle since the Broncos in Week 2, and will be crucial to keep the vaunted Rams rush away from Daniel Jones. The Colts will be without RG Matt Goncalves, and will need to rely on Dalton Tucker/Josh Sills to step up in his absence.

The Rams have several talented playmakers in the back 7 as well, with Linebacker Nate Landman and Nickel/Safety Quentin Lake each grading out in the mid to high 80s in coverage and Corners Cobie Durant and Ahkello Witherspoon at 76.8 and 71.2 grades. Witherspoon is now on IR with a broken Clavicle, and in his place Emmanuel Forbes has struggles with his slender frame making it a challenge for him to fight in press and at the catch point. The Rams Safeties have struggled in 2025 despite their pedigree in coverage, with former Washington Commander Kamren Curl and former 3rd round pick Kamren Kitchens having an uncharacteristically bad seasons. They have allowed 23 catches on 27 targets so far this season, as well as 241 yards and a TD.

Linebacker Omar Speights has also been an exploitable matchup in the middle of the field. With the Colts talented set of playmakers, Jones will have options of prime matchups to take advantage of at multiple depths, but will need to have time to read the field. The Rams don’t have a true shutdown Corner, so expect plenty of passes to the outside receivers to avoid Lake while also opting to use Warren to attack Speights whenever he can.

Rushing Defense

• Rushing Yards Per Game Allowed: 103 (13th) | 94 (7th)
• Rushing Yards Per Carry Allowed: 3.9 (10th) | 4.8 (24th)
• Stacked Boxes Rate: 13.8% (26th) | 15% (23rd)
• Yards Before Contact Per Carry Allowed: 1.17 (Tied 15th) | 1.25 (Tied 17th)
• Yards After Contact Per Carry Allowed: 2.7 (Tied 7th) | 3.53 (23rd)
• Stuffed Rate: 10% (4th) | 16.9% (15th)
• Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Carry Allowed: 0.03 (14th) | 0.22 (19th)
• EPA/Run Allowed: -0.02 (17th) | 0.1 (29th)

The Rams Run Defense has been a solid unit despite them not stacking the box often. In the first two games they struggles a bit with Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard, allowing 152 yards on 33 rushes from the Texans and Titans lead backs. However in Week 3 they had a dominant showing against the vaunted Eagles rush attack of Saquon Barkley and QB Jalen Hurts, holding them to just 3.2 Yards Per Carry.

Linebacker Nate Landman and Nose Tackle Poona Ford were signed by the Rams specifically to help shore up their run Defense, and both have been crucial alongside 2nd year DT Braden Fiske in stopping the run.

The Rams doing so with the 2nd highest light box% at 61.3% (6 or less defenders in the box), is remarkable and speaks to how good those 3 have been in shoring up the Rams run defense. In light boxes specifically they are allowing 4.6 Yards per Carry, 8th best in the NFL. However this success does come with a risk, as they have allowed explosive runs (10+ yards) on 6 of their 49 light box looks this season, tied for 6th highest in the NFL.

The key for the Colts will be running outside of the Tackles, as the Rams Yards per Carry allowed goes from a stifling 3.4 (Tied 6th best) to a more manageable 4.6 (Tied 16th) inside to outside. The Colts do have some powerful run blockers in the interior with Quenton Nelson and Tanor Bortolini, and backup Guard Dalton Tucker has some power to his game as well. When the Colts do run inside it will be a battle of goliaths, but when they run outside Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Tyler Warren, Mo Alie Cox, Andrew Ogletree, and the Colts Wide Receivers should have the advantage to help spring Jonathan Taylor lose.

Can the Colts Pass this Test?

Statistically this Week 4 matchup seems to be a close battle. The Colts have the advantage in 18 of the 38 performance (not tendency) stats listed above, and the Rams have the advantage in 20. The Rams last beat the Colts in 2023 in an Overtime coin toss victory after an Anthony Richardson-led 23 point comeback. Colts haven’t beaten the Rams in 4 straight matchups, with the last Colts victory occuring in 2009. However this has been a year of firsts since 2009/2013, with this being the Colts first 3-0 start since 2009 and the first time they were able to win Week 1 since 2013. The betting line favors the Rams by 3.5 points at home, so even when factoring the home team getting 3 extra points on the spread, it appears Vegas believes in the Colts to keep the game down to the wire.

The Rams have won 9 of their last 13 games played, with their only losses in that span being the 2024 Super Bowl winning Philadelphia Eagles (a 17 point loss in the 2024 regular season, a 6 point loss in the playoffs last year, and a 1 TD loss last week) and the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18 last season. The Rams are let the Eagles come back and win after blowing a 26-7 lead in the 3rd Quarter by allowing 26 consecutive points; and are likely heading into this game angry and with a chip on their shoulder with how that ended (blocked potential Game Winning Kick returned for a TD by Eagles Nose Tackle Jordan Davis as time expired).

If the Colts win in Week 4, their 4-0 start with wins against two 2024 playoff teams and two blowout victories against bottom tier NFL squads will seem fairly legitimized. They are already leading the AFC South (and will be by 1-2 games depending on the Jaguars game vs the 49ers; with the Texans and Titans currently at 0-3 heading into their Week 4 matchup longshots to win the division) and the expectation will be that the Colts not only win their division for the first time since 2014, but also get their first playoff victory since 2020. Perhaps aspirations for the top seed in the AFC aren’t unrealistic as well, with just the Bills and Chargers also potentially undefeated after this week.

Still the Rams present quite a challenge, and it will by no means be an easy victory if the Colts do pull it off. Especially with key starters Alec Pierce, Matt Goncalves, and Kenny Moore II all out with injury. AD Mitchell, Dalton Tucker, and Mekhi Blackmon/Mike Hilton stepping into bigger roles will be crucial for the Colts victory. Expect a high powered showdown of Stafford vs Jones and Taylor vs Williams against talented defenses on both sides, as this game is sure to be a must-watch for Colts fans and curious national fans and analysts.

Are the Colts legit? This matchup of the two NFL franchises the Irsay family has owned could go a long way to finding the answer.