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Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert and the grossest quarterbacks of Week 4

Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert and the grossest quarterbacks of Week 4

When it comes to underwhelming, it's been a rough two weeks for Justin Herbert. But that's nothing compared to (glares toward the Cleveland Browns)

Week 4 was a rough one for vaunted NFL quarterbacks.

Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens slid to 1-3 in a game he left in the third quarter due to injury. Baker Mayfield's string of fourth quarter comebacks fell short as the Philadelphia Eagles escaped to 4-0. Justin Herbert lost his *other* franchise cornerstone tackle and spent the bulk of his day running for his life against the New York Giants.

That left a lot of room to process Week 4's grossest performances. Fortunately, we've got a formula to figure out who underwhelmed the most.

To start the season, I've compared every starting quarterback's expected points added (EPA, found here in real time thanks to some exceptional work from The Athletic's Ben Baldwin) to their 2024 per-game average. The players who sunk below their own standard the hardest? They're the ones who get written about. A player like Cam Ward, who is working through his growing pains and had yet another bad day for an undermanned 0-4 team? He's not disappointing enough to make it.

Before we dig into the passing schadenfreude, let's talk about the quarterbacks who exceeded expectations in Week 4.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

  • 2024 EPA/game: -2.2
  • Week 4 EPA: 10.1
  • Difference: 12.3 points better

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

  • 2024 EPA/game: -2.5
  • Week 4 EPA: 11.6
  • Difference: 14.1 points better

Michael Penix Jr., Las Vegas Raiders

  • 2024 EPA/game: 2.6
  • Week 4 EPA: 20.2
  • Difference: 17.6 points better

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

  • 2024 EPA/game: -2.3
  • Week 4 EPA: 19
  • Difference: 21.3 points better

Let's move on to the guys who were Week 4's biggest disappointments.

6. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sep 28, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) reacts during the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

  • 2024 EPA/game: 5.1
  • Week 4 EPA: -1.2
  • Difference: 6.3 points worse

Mayfield was on the doorstep of four fourth quarter comebacks in a 4-0 Tampa Bay start. He fell short, because a five-man Philadelphia Eagles pass rush was too much for seven Buccaneers blockers to fend off.

Mayfield threw for nearly 300 yards but needed 42 dropbacks to get there. He created magic when he was forced from the pocket and extended plays. On six passes where he had more than four seconds to throw he threw for 167 yards, two touchdowns and the interception you see above. But when he was playing on time and sorting through his reads with typical time to throw he was a mess: 122 yards on 34 attempts and a garbage 3.6 yards per pass.

Mayfield, as is his wont, thrived through static. He also actively took points off the board by trying to gunsling his way through it midway through the fourth quarter in an eight-point game.

That's Mayfield's double edged sword -- an ability to harness chaos and bend it to his favor. Mayfield is a combustion engine. While he's largely able to keep those internal and drive his team forward, they occasionally become external and you get a first-down endzone interception or a scramble out of traffic to throw nine yards short of the sticks on fourth down with the game on the line.

You take the good with the bad because while Mayfield completed only three of his nine passes to travel at least 15 yards downfield, two of those passes went for 149 yards and a pair of touchdowns. And when you need someone to emerge from the ether, head down and looking to run someone over for a first down, well, he's your guy there, too.

5. Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders

  • 2024 EPA/game: -0.9
  • Week 4 EPA: -9.5
  • Difference: 8.6 points worse

The days of Smith's hyper-efficient, pinpoint downfield passing may

be

over.

The cracks began to show a bit in 2024. Smith's final season as a Seattle Seahawk saw his interception rate rise over two percent for the first time as a part of the NFC West. After Sunday's three-interception performance he's currently sitting at 5.3 percent -- higher than Jameis Winston in his 30-interception 2019 campaign. Smith only threw three passes that traveled more than eight yards downfield Sunday. Three were caught, all by Chicago Bears.

4. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

  • 2024 EPA/game: 8.5
  • Week 4 EPA: -1.6
  • Difference: 10.1 points worse

There is a silver lining for the Cleveland Browns. Their defense is absolutely wrecking HAVOC on North opponents.

Granted, that's the NFC North and not the one Cleveland actually plays in, but still. After leaving Jordan Love for dead in a 13-10 upset, the Browns turned around and shut down Goff seven days after he threw for 334 yards and five touchdowns. It didn't matter because their own quarterback is smack-dab at the top of this week's [expletive] list, but it's at least some cold comfort in the face of another lost season.

Goff wasn't rendered useless, but did struggle in comparison to his normal self. Take Amon-Ra St. Brown out of this game and he completed only nine of 20 passes for 98 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception. That's a 39.2 passer rating!

Fortunately, Goff is not an idiot and targeted St. Brown enough to comfortably win. Unlike Love in Week 3, he had the protection to air the ball out downfield. That didn't translate to success -- he threw five passes that traveled more than 20 yards downfield and completed zero (but two more that traveled *exactly* 20 yards downfield that were caught). The veteran was able to mitigate disaster. He was pressured on 12 of his 27 dropbacks but didn't take a single sack. He wasn't great with the pocket collapsing on him (four completions, 65 yards and the interception above), but he avoided negative plays that could have helped Cleveland battle its way back into the game.

Ultimately, that's all the Lions needed. Goff kept his head, got rid of the ball and rode his WR1 through rough patches. That's all it took to earn a 24-point win over one of the league's most dynamic pass rushes, because, well, we'll get to Joe Flacco soon enough.

3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

  • 2024 EPA/game: 9.5
  • Week 4 EPA: -3.1
  • Difference: 12.6 points worse

Jackson left in the third quarter due to a hamstring injury, leaving Cooper Rush to mop-up an eventual 17-point loss. The 2024 first-team All-Pro quarterback (but not MVP) had yet to turn the ball over this season before an interception and fumble gave way to a pair of Harrison Butker field goal attempts (he made one and continues to be, uh, iffy this fall. That's five missed kicks in four games!).

Those two turnovers (including one where he ran into his own blocker and dropped the ball) were the second and third-most impactful plays of the game in terms of EPA gained or lost behind only Justice Hill's 71-yard touchdown run. Jackson completed 70 percent of his passes, but his average throw went just six yards downfield against a Chiefs defense that let Justin Herbert sling it all over the field in a Week 1 win (10.1 air yards per throw). Jackson was averaging 9.6 yards per throw before Sunday.

Is this a bad game from a quarterback entitled to one? The effect of a hamstring injury that hindered him before he left the game (even though he added 48 rushing yards on six carries before leaving)? The chickens of a depleted receiving corps finally coming home to roost (Baltimore's 3.4 yards of separation per target ranked 25th in the NFL before Week 4)?

It's unclear, but now Baltimore is 1-3 and facing a steep climb to get back to playoff contention. The sudden weakness of the AFC North flattens that curve a bit, but 2025 could be another squandered opportunity if Jackson can't return to the lineup or plays like he did for about 37 minutes in Week 4.

2. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

  • 2024 EPA/game: 3.2
  • Week 4 EPA: -12.3
  • Difference: 15.5 points worse

Herbert ended up on this list last week, then rebounded in time to lead Los Angeles to a comeback win over the Denver Broncos. He returns to the list after failing to outduel, uh, Jaxson Dart in his first NFL start.

The New York Giants' pass defense ranked 24th when it came to EPA allowed per opponent dropback, but Herbert still managed to gain just 210 net yards on 44 dropbacks in a game the Chargers trailed for nearly 50 minutes (this was a bummer, as Omarion Hampton heated up as the game wore on and managed 128 rushing yards on only 12 carries). Ladd McConkey's concerning sophomore backslide continued as he had just a single catch on six targets. His 11 receiving yards were by far a personal worst in the NFL.

The biggest culprit behind this was New York's pass rush beginning to realize its potential. Rookie Abdul Carter had eight pressures. His 43 percent pass rush win rate exploited a Chargers' offensive line without Rashawn Slater or Joe Alt. Per NFL Pro, Herbert completed only five of 19 passes while pressured and was sacked twice. So while he averaged 11.6 yards per attempt on his deep balls and added a touchdown that way, he only got to make five such tosses because he was constantly under fire.

That fire led to back-foot throws. And back-foot throws led to baffling interceptions.

Shrinking pockets led to easily swatted balls that nearly became Piesman Trophy fodder.

And, eventually, that pressure amplified the footsteps bearing down on Herbert, leaving him to ditch compromised pockets only to find little purchase elsewhere.

With Alt injured enough to require a cart back to the locker room and Slater done for the season with a patellar tear, the Chargers' best-laid plans are crashing at their feet. This team that started 3-0 has been ravaged by injuries that threaten to prevent Herbert from making the leap from "underappreciated until you watch his tape" to "bonafide NFL star." Los Angeles remains in great shape for a postseason run, but a dark cloud lingers over its house. On Sunday, that manifested in a loss to the previously winless Giants and a growing concern over how long this depleted line can keep its franchise quarterback upright.

1. Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns

  • 2024 EPA/game: -1.5
  • Week 4 EPA: -20.6
  • Difference: 19.1 points worse

Flacco was 2023's comeback player of the year because he was willing to deal downfield and take advantage of an offense wringing the last prolific moments from Amari Cooper's career. That winter, his average pass went 9.3 yards downfield -- tied for second-highest among starting quarterbacks. His 12.3 percent deep ball rate was a top 10 number.

Against the Lions, he threw 18 passes that went more than five yards downfield. He completed five -- well, seven if you count interceptions, including whatever the hell this was.

Flacco completed 46 percent of his deep throws in that resurgent 2023 -- roughly on par with Jared Goff that season. He's at 22 percent this season even after connecting on a pair of deep throws at Ford Field. Jerry Jeudy set career highs with 90 catches and 1,229 yards in his first season as a Brown. He's on pace for 55 catches and 731 yards this fall while averaging a career worst 1.09 yards per route run.

At some point, Kevin Stefanski will get the green light to throw whichever rookie quarterback of his choosing into the fire, if only because things cannot get much worse.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert and the grossest quarterbacks of Week 4

Category: Football

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