A Cubs fan’s guide to the Wild Card Series

The Wild Card round begins tomorrow, with wall-to-wall coverage of Postseason matchups. Every day there are four games is basically baseball’s version of March Madness. This guide started in 2021 as a way to assuage the pain of the Cubs missing the Postseason after trading away the World Series core. It was loaded with snark because sometimes it’s easier to cover pain up with jokes. This year, for the first time since that initial guide, the Cubs are in the Postseason. I promise to try and still bring the snark.

Tigers vs. Guardians: An indie collision no one saw coming

Technically this is a rematch of last year’s American League Divisional Series where Cleveland eked out a win over an upstart Detroit Tigers team three games to two. But this year’s matchup feels fundamentally different than last year’s. For starters, the momentum has shifted. Last year the Tigers charged into the playoffs on the back of a 34-19 record through August and September while the Guardians limped into the playoffs with a 27-27 record during the same timeframe. This year is basically the opposite narrative with the Guardians charging into the playoffs on the back of a 34-20 run since August first and the Tigers limping into the postseason after a 23-29 record down the stretch.

Tarik Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball this season. There are a handful of other pitchers who are in that conversation including a few who will be in the postseason, but Skubal is an order of magnitude different from anyone in this series. He’s thrown 195.1 innings this season with a 2.21 ERA off a 2.45 FIP, he’s struck out 241 batters and walked just 33. He’s leading MLB in fWAR with 6.6, and is first in the AL in bWAR with 6.6. For reference, the next best starting pitcher in this series is the Guardians’ Tanner Bibee at 182.1 innings, a 4.24 ERA off a 4.34 FIP and 1.9 fWAR. Don’t get me wrong, Bibee has been the 38th most valuable pitcher in baseball according to FanGraphs — but he hasn’t been first.

The best position player in this series is José Ramírez who’s slashed .283/.350/.503 with 30 home runs and 44 stolen bases good for 6.3 fWAR this season. By comparison, the highest ranked Tigers player by fWAR is former Cub Zach McKinstry who’s hit .259/.333/.438 with 12 home runs and 19 stolen bases for 3.1 fWAR.

Will the Tigers right the ship and play more like their first half juggernaut selves or has Cleveland gotten hot at the right time to send the Tigers back to Detroit after a short series?

Red Sox vs. Yankees: A blockbuster franchise

The Red Sox and Yankees meeting up in the Wild Card round is sort of like if Marvel and DC comics went head to head for a summer blockbuster. This is one of baseball’s best rivalries, a dramatic event that doesn’t need any embellishment, amplified by the drama of a win or go home series.

The Yankees have been baseball’s premier offense this season. Their players have put up 34.1 fWAR this season led by the titan himself, Aaron Judge. Judge will be in the MVP conversation this season despite Cal Raleigh’s best efforts putting up a historic season for a catcher. And how could he not? Judge has hit .331/.457/.688 with 53 home runs in 679 plate appearances. He leads all hitters with 10.1 fWAR. And Judge isn’t the only bat Boston needs to worry about. Old pal Cody Bellinger has been worth 4.9 fWAR this season and Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been worth 4.4. All three of those hitters have eclipsed Boston’s top batter by fWAR: Jarren Duran who’s hit .256/.332/.442 with 16 home runs and 24 stolen bases for 3.8 fWAR.

It’s a fine season for Duran, but certainly not of the caliber that Judge put up. Boston will hope to make up some of that ground on the pitching side of the equation where Garrett Crochet has been almost as good as Tarik Skubal with 205.1 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.59 off a FIP of 2.89. Crochet had a league-best 255 strikeouts this season.

But the thing about elite rivalries is anything can happen, and in this rivalry in 2025 anything did happen. The Red Sox won the regular-season series this season 9-4. They won the series at Yankee Stadium, they won the series at Fenway Park. Rest assured the Yankees are well aware of this and hoping to set things right at Yankee Stadium this week.

Padres vs. Cubs: A nostalgic remake

For everyone who fell in love with baseball in 1984 have I got a remake for you: Padres vs. Cubs in a best of three games series at historic Wrigley Field. I feel like someone should be making “Stranger Things” gear for this series. I’d buy it.

The home team won every matchup in the 1984 original, with the Cubs winning both day games at Wrigley Field and the Padres following up with a three-game winning streak in San Diego. That’s a bit of history I’m sure the Cubs would love to see repeat itself.

The Cubs bring a sizeable offensive advantage to this matchup even with their bats cooling off later in the season. The Cubs slashed .249/.320/.430 with a wRC+ of 110 this season. That’s almost identical to the .243/.321/.419 with a wRC+ of 109 at home and the .249/.322/.429 with a wRC+ of 110 they put up against right-handed pitching in 2025. That’s particularly useful since the Padres pitching will likely be heavily right-handed. The Padres, meanwhile, slashed .252/.321/.390 with a wRC+ of 102 overall. But they hit .244/.316/.375 with a wRC+ of 96 against left-handed pitching, which likely points to the Cubs leading with Shōta Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. The Padres were also slightly worse away from Petco Park, slashing .256/.315/.395 with a wRC+ of 98 on the road.

On paper the Cubs have a starting pitching advantage heading into this series, but in practice Imanaga will need to correct whatever’s gone wrong from his last start with the Mets. He’s been giving up a ton of home runs lately, here’s hoping Tommy Hottovy and company have a quick fix there. Matthew Boyd has also struggled more as the season has gone on, but looked better in 5.1 innings against the Mets in his last start. The Padres will likely counter with Nick Pivetta and Dylan Cease. While these season-long numbers look comparable, the Padres starting pitching has been more reliable lately.

The real edge for the Padres is in the bullpen where they boast the best bullpen by fWAR in baseball. It will surprise no one reading this column that the Cubs are not in the running for the best bullpen in baseball, and find themselves 19th by fWAR. While the Cubs have done a good job developing less conventional late inning options like Brad Keller, Andrew Kittredge and Daniel Palencia, the Padres traded for elite closer Mason Miller at the deadline and have him throwing the eighth in front of closer Robert Suarez. The Cubs will need to score runs early and hope to avoid the gauntlet of arms at the end of games for the Padres.

The real wild card in this series is Day Baseball and Wrigley Field itself. The Cubs were 50-29 at the Friendly Confines this season and no one in baseball plays more day games. Here’s hoping home field advantage is everything it could be this week.

Reds vs. Dodgers: An indie film vs. a blockbuster

Let’s be honest, even a few days ago this looked like it was going to be a battle of the mega blockbusters. Two of the biggest payrolls in baseball squaring off against each other. But that was before the Mets epic collapse. Besides, no one pushes Terry Francona out of the postseason.

The starting pitching here is closer than you think, with the Reds starters having a 3.85 ERA off a 3.94 FIP and the Dodgers putting up a 3.69 ERA off a 3.84 FIP this season. In fact, in a short series, the Reds can absolutely hang with the Dodgers starting pitching. Hunter Greene has been electric this season with a 2.76 ERA off a 3.28 FIP in 107 2/3 innings. Andrew Abbott has also been stellar with a 2.87 ERA off a 3.66 FIP in 166.1 innings this season. The Dodgers will counter with Blake Snell who has been excellent since returning from injury with a 2.35 ERA and 2.70 FIP in 61.1 innings and Yoshinobu Yamamoto whose 2.49 ERA off a 2.94 FIP in 170.2 innings this season was worth five fWAR in 2025.

The Dodgers have an advantage offensively heading into this series, and how could they not with the likes of Shohei Ohtani hitting 55 home runs and maybe starting Game Three (if it comes to that) for them?

Cincinnati’s fiercest hitter is Elly De La Cruz, who is excellent, but put up about the same fWAR as the Dodgers catcher, Will Smith. The Dodgers have six hitters who have put up at least two fWAR this year, with Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Max Muncy joining Smith and Ohtani. That’s a fearsome top of the lineup. By contrast the Reds have two hitters who have been worth at least two fWAR, with TJ Friedl joining De La Cruz.

But the playoffs are a weird mix of timing, luck, talent and vibes. It isn’t too hard to squint and see the Reds getting the best out of their top two starters and stunning the Dodgers at home.