The road ahead for Illinois after topping USC

When the final seconds ticked off in Bloomington last week and a dejected group of Illini walked off the field, fortunes could not have been bleaker. They had just been totally dominated by their next-door rival and facing a schedule that included USC, Ohio State, and Washington over the next five weeks.

Now, while some were preaching gloom and doom, many realized that Illinois was not as bad as they thought. However, as Bret Bielema hinted, how the Illini responded would define this team. That response came on Saturday, as the Illini, for the most part, had control of the game on both sides of the ball, which was a stark contrast to the Indiana game, where the battle in the trenches was largely under the Hoosiers’ control. Saturday, the Illini looked confident and in control even as USC put up two scores in the fourth quarter to take the lead 32-31. The Illini never appeared to panic and came out on top. The win was much needed on multiple fronts.

First, there had to be a bounce-back from the debacle that was the Indiana game. It is very easy for a team to go into a funk after a game like that.

Second, holding serve at home. It has long been said in many sports that to have success, you need to do well at home or hold serve. This is something the Illini did very well last season, going 6-1 at home, losing only to Minnesota. So far under Bielema, the Illini are 17-7 at home and have won 5 straight home contests and 10 out of the last 11.

Third, if Illinois wants to be in either the race for the Big Ten championship or the College Football Playoff, it has to control its own destiny when it can. With the Indiana loss, beating USC was a must, and they get another opportunity with Ohio State coming to town on Oct. 11. After that, the schedule looks relatively favorable, with home games against Rutgers, Maryland, and Northwestern, and away contests against Washington and Wisconsin.

Fourth, the benefit to recruiting can’t be measured. Beating a team like USC, which is still considered by many to be a competitive program. Yes, the loss to Indiana works in the opposite direction, but with the success last season, wins like this only solidify the perceived direction of the Illini under Bielema.

The road to a Big Ten title and or the CFP

This early in the conference season, the title chase has many possibilities. There are six teams with undefeated teams in the Big Ten, and four of those have undefeated overall records. Indiana and Oregon are 2-0 (5-0 overall), while Ohio State and Maryland are 1-0 in conference and 4-0 overall. Michigan and Minnesota have unblemished conference records (1-0), but have one loss overall. Then there is the next tier of USC 2-1 (4-1), Illinois 1-1 (4-1), Iowa 1-1 (3-2), and Penn State 0-1 (3-1). Who has the easiest path to the Big Ten championship game is really a 1, 1a,1b. Oregon has one challenging game (at home against Indiana) and a medium game (at home against USC). Illinois has a challenging game at home against Ohio State, and they host Maryland. Ohio State is at Illinois, at Penn State, and at Michigan at the end of the season. Penn State, at 0-1, has a rough road ahead with games at Iowa, at Ohio State, and Indiana at home. Indiana also has a tough go with at Oregon, at Penn State, and at Maryland. A lot will be sorted out in Week 7 when Illinois plays Ohio State and Oregon faces Indiana. So one of them will end up with a loss. The Big Ten championship game could be any two of four teams: Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. Penn State could be a dark horse.

Now, when it comes to the College Football Playoff, that picture is just a little murkier. We won’t have an idea until November when the first CFP rankings of the season are announced. Last season, the field included one undefeated team, two one-loss teams, seven two-loss teams, and one three-loss team (automatic qualifier, Clemson). Currently, there are 13 undefeated teams in the AP top 25. Three are from the Big Ten and six from the SEC, and two each from the Big 12 and ACC. This field will be thinned out during conference play. Not many teams will be playing high-profile competition this week. There are only two top-25 matchups this coming weekend: No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama and No. 3 Miami at No. 10 Florida State, so don’t expect much of a shift unless there are some big upsets. So if the Illini beat Purdue, which they should, they should look for them to crack the top 20, maybe. Now if they upset the Buckeyes in two weeks look for their stock to take a significant jump.

Thanks for reading. See ya soon. Go Illini!