Bowl Projections: Tennessee stays alive for College Football Playoff bid, but work remains

A major wildcard of a football game is now behind Tennessee, and the Volunteers had to hold on for dear life to come out with the victory. A white out game in Starkville against a much-improved Mississippi State team felt like natural spot for Josh Heupel’s seemingly annual road loss, and it just about was. Thankfully for Heupel, Joey Aguilar delivered a brilliant drive late to keep Tennessee breathing, and the Volunteers got the job done in overtime.

The win can’t be understated. Without it, Tennessee would be on the ropes with the College Football Playoff committee with trips to Alabama and Florida left, along with home games against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Tennessee now has just a little bit of wiggle room which will more than likely be needed at some point in the coming weeks.

The Volunteers remain ranked 15th in the polls, which would obviously be just outside the cut line for an at-large bid. That will all work itself out though, with Tennessee having plenty of opportunities down the stretch. For now, Tennessee is projected out of the bracket by most.

Tennessee football bowl projections

ESPN (Schlabach): Gator Bowl vs. Florida State

ESPN (Bonagura): Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs. Georgia Tech

CBS Sports: Reliaquest Bowl vs. Michigan

Yahoo Sports: Gator Bowl vs. Louisville

Athlon Sports: Citrus Bowl vs. Michigan

Each one of these projections assume two more losses for Tennessee, which is plenty fair considering that the Volunteers haven’t won in Tuscaloosa or Gainesville since 2003. Oklahoma, assuming John Mateer can return healthy, will be another showdown and Vanderbilt certainly appears to be legitimate at this point. Going 3-1 through those four games would seemingly guarantee Tennessee a spot in the CFP, just as we all assumed at the start of the season. Go 2-2 there? Then Tennessee will more than likely be selected by one of the above games.

Tennessee last appeared in the Citrus Bowl following the 2023 season. They appeared in the Orange Bowl in 2022, while landing in the Music City Bowl back in 2021.

We’ll continue to get some clarity this weekend with Alabama hosting Vanderbilt and Florida State hosting Miami. For Tennessee, it’s a chance to finally get healthy after a rough start to the year on the injury front. The Volunteers will be back in action on October 11th, set to host Arkansas.