Oklahoma Sooners game-by-game predictions from ESPN after Week 5

Over the Oklahoma Sooners' bye week, John Mateer had surgery, and Michael Hawkins Jr. was named the starter for the Kent State game on Saturday. But other than that, it was a pretty uneventful bye week.

The Sooners sit at 4-0 on the season and are getting a lot of love from the US LBM Coaches Poll and the AP Top 25. But even though they're well within the top 10, they're still a team that has a lot to prove in 2025. They've been fantastic on the defensive side of the football and still, they can tighten things up in pass coverage with games against some more explosive offenses coming down the road.

Offensively, the Sooners' passing game has led the way, fueled by quarterback John Mateer and a diverse group of pass catchers. As good as they've been, it's the running game that's held the Oklahoma Sooners back. Imagine being an OU fan from the Bud Wilkinson, Barry Switzer, or Bob Stoops days and reading about a 4-0 Oklahoma team with no run game.

That doesn't make sense.

But Oklahoma is right where they want to be heading into a Week 6 get-right game against Kent State.

With Week 5 in the books, how does the ESPN matchup predictor see the rest of the Sooners' 2025 schedule playing out? Here's an updated look at the game-by-game predictions.

Oct. 4 vs. Kent State Golden Flashes

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 99% (No Change)

Projected running record: 5-0

Oct. 11 vs. Texas Longhorns

Predicted Winner: Texas

Sooners Win Probability: 33.7% (No Change)

Projected running record: 5-1

Oct. 18 at South Carolina Gamecocks

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 58.7% (Down from 64%)

Projected running record: 6-1

Oct. 25 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Predicted Winner: Ole Miss

Sooners Win Probability: 47% (Up from 42.7%)

Projected running record: 6-2

Nov. 1 at Tennessee Volunteers

Predicted Winner: Tennessee

Sooners Win Probability: 36.3% (Up from 33.7%)

Projected running record: 6-3

Nov. 15 at Alabama Crimson Tide

Predicted Winner: Alabama

Sooners Win Probability: 26.7% (Down from 28.2%)

Projected running record: 6-4

Nov. 22 vs. Missouri Tigers

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 58.2% (Up from 55.2%)

Projected running record: 7-4

Nov. 29 vs. LSU Tigers

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 61.1% (Down from 61.4%)

Projected running record: 8-4

Oklahoma still has a lot to prove

The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a fantastic start to the season but will have to prove it every week with a loaded slate of tough games following this week against Kent State. But if the Sooners are able to take care of business and get to nine wins they'll be in the College Football Playoff discussion. Really want to solidify your spot in the postseason? Go on a historic run.

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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Oklahoma Sooners game-by-game predictions from ESPN after Week 5