ESPN Matchup Predictor updates chances of Ohio State winning remaining games after Week 5

Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire, and in fact, we get into it ourselves as well when the time comes and will throughout the 2025 Ohio State and college football season.

But if you've followed us at all, you know we like to check in on what the ESPN "Matchup Predictor" says about the probability of Ohio State winning each game on its schedule every week. The ESPN computers always adjust things after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time.

The Buckeyes got a huge win at Washington last Saturday and now prepare to host Minnesota for a nighttime affair this weekend. Other teams on OSU's remaining schedule were also in action, and it all resulted in ESPN updating the chances of Ohio State winning each of its remaining regular-season games. Which way did things move with Michigan, Penn State, and Oregon? What about the rest of the schedule, like Wisconsin and UCLA?

Here's what ESPN's "Matchup Predictor" says. We include games already played and the results, which in this case include a 4-0 start for the Scarlet and Gray.

First up ... Games Completed

Aug. 30 vs. Texas Longhorns

Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted winner | Texas (53.3%)

Actual result | Ohio State won 14-7

All-time series | Ohio State leads 3-2

Actual Record | 1-0

Sept. 6 vs. Grambling State

Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)

Buckeyes win probability | 99.0% (no change)

Actual result | Ohio State won 77-0

All-time series | Ohio State now leads 1-0

Actual running record | 2-0

Next ... Games still to be played

Sept. 13 vs. Ohio

Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted winner | Ohio State

Buckeyes win probability | 95.4%

Actual result | Ohio State won 37-9

All-time series | Ohio State leads 8-0

Actual running record | 3-0

Sept. 27 at Washington

Location | Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)

Predicted winner | Ohio State

Buckeyes win probability | 68.8%

Actual result | Ohio State won 24-6

All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-3

Actual running record | 4-0

Oct. 4 vs. Minnesota

Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted winner | Ohio State

Buckeyes win probability | 94.7% (up from 94.2%)

All-time series | Ohio State leads 48-7

Projected running record | 5-0

Nov. 11 at Illinois

Location | Memorial Stadium (Champaign, Illinois)

Predicted winner | Ohio State

Buckeyes win probability | 81.0% (down from 82.3%)

All-time series | Ohio State leads 69-30-4

Projected running record | 6-0

Oct. 18 at Wisconsin

Location | Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)

Predicted winner | Ohio State

Buckeyes win probability | 90.2% (up from 89.2%)

All-time series | Ohio State leads 63-18-5

Projected running record | 7-0

Nov. 1 vs. Penn State

Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted winner | Ohio State

Buckeyes win probability | 71.2% (up from 67.8%)

All-time series | Ohio State leads 26-14

Projected running record | 8-0

Nov. 8 at Purdue

Location | Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Indiana)

Predicted winner | Ohio State

Buckeyes win probability | 94.9% (up from 94.4%)

All-time series | Ohio State leads 43-15-2

Projected running record | 9-0

Nov. 15 vs. UCLA

Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted winner | Ohio State

Buckeyes win probability | 98.6% (no change)

All-time series | Series tied 4-4-1

Projected running record | 10-0

Nov. 22 vs. Rutgers

Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted winner | Ohio State

Buckeyes win probability | 91.8% (up from 91.1%)

All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-0

Projected running record | 11-0

Nov. 29 at Michigan

Location | Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Predicted winner | Ohio State

Buckeyes win probability | 60.1% (up from 57.7%)

All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6

Projected running record | 12-0

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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: ESPN updates Ohio State chances of winning remaining games on schedule