NFL QB ranks Week 5: Advanced stats' top-3 quarterbacks aren't who you think

Through roughly one quarter of the 2025 NFL season, your top three quarterbacks are Jordan Love, Sam Darnold and Drake Maye.

So, huh, looks like we've got something to talk about this week.

The numbers love a quarterback who is 0-1-1 in his last two games despite being heavily favored, a 28-year-old on his fifth NFL team and a second-year gunslinger whose offense has scored 14 points or fewer in half his games this fall. That's not what anyone expected, but it's what advanced stats have to say.

We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through four games. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.

Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a graph of 35 quarterbacks (minimum 64 plays) that looks like this:

Break that into tiers using RBSDM.com's outstanding and helpful plotting software, and it looks like this:

Michael Penix Jr. escaped the danger zone with a solid Week 4 performance. J.J. McCarthy dropped off the map without enough snaps to qualify. That leaves a lonely bottom tier for Cam Ward and Joe Flacco. We'll get to them, but let's start at the top:

Tier I: Three guys you expected, three you probably didn't

1. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.226 EPA+CPOE composite

2. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks: 0.214

3. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.202

4. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.201

5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.2

6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.198

OK. Phew. Let's unpack.

Love is in the midst of his most efficient season as a pro. He's usually a fixture toward the top of these rankings for his ability to create plays downfield. But in Week 4 he was 28 of 28 when it came to throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. That incredible efficiency and relative lack of negative plays this season (eight sacks, one interception, one fumble lost) makes him the league's top advanced stats QB despite Green Bay's recent stall.

Darnold has taken an undermanned receiving corps and managed to average 9.1 yards per attempt. He's also only been sacked six times in four games despite concerns about the interior of the Seattle line. He's also been an occasional, but devastating scrambler (two scrambles, 29 yards) which has helped buoy his time in the pocket.

Maye is dealing with even worse wideouts and blocking than Darnold, but a competent defense has left him playing catch-up less often and allowed him to make safer throws rather than forcing deep shots. While his average target distance is down, his yards per attempt are up from 6.7 to 8.0 and his interception rate has dipped from three percent to 1.6. Factor in 15 scrambles at nearly six yards per and you've got the makings of a franchise quarterback.

Jackson is the best 1-3 quarterback in the NFL. That's... something.

Tier II: Small sample size magic, or the sign of something more?

7. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts 0.188 EPA+CPOE composite

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.163

9. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.162

10. Marcus Mariota, Washington Commanders: 0.158

Purdy and Mariota were efficient in ways that didn't matter in Week 4. Jones went three games without a turnover to start the season, then threw a pair of interceptions and fumbled once (though the Colts recovered). He was still probably good enough to win had Adonai Mitchell not had the worst 96-yard performance in NFL history, so Indianapolis can take solace. Prescott continues to be worth whatever stupidly expensive contract Jerry Jones keeps sliding to him after years of futilely playing chicken with his homegrown talent.

Tier III: Super Bowl winners and Tyrod Taylor (?)

11. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.122 EPA+CPOE composite

12. Carson Wentz, Minnesota Vikings: 0.119

13. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.115

14. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.114

15. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.108

16. Tyrod Taylor, New York Jets: 0.107

Wentz struggled for 49 minutes in Dublin, then racked up 11.5 EPA in the fourth quarter to at least make things interesting in a 24-21 loss. Stafford put together the kind of head-turning performance that reminds you he can win a Super Bowl any given year with a little help, throwing for 375 yards and three touchdowns in a comeback win over the Colts in Week 4. Mahomes had a similar kind of day, crushing the Ravens like a pneumatic press and providing some hope Xavier Worthy can be the WR1 for whom he's been searching since Tyreek Hill left (eight targets, five catches, 83 yards).

Tier IV: Slightly underperforming (not you, Baker Mayfield or Justin Herbert)

17. Justin Fields, New York Jets: 0.089 EPA+CPOE composite

18. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.088

19. Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ers: 0.079

20. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: 0.071

21. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.067

22. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.067

23. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.067

24. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.065

25. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.06

26. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: 0.06

Fields has buoyed his 2025 with chain-moving runs and generally avoided disaster (zero interceptions and two fumbles lost) which is why he cracks the top-20 despite New York's 0-4 start. Stroud has been left gasping for air behind a rebuilt offensive line and depleted receiving corps that has forced him into more quick passes than ever before. Penix remains an enigma, but he can protect the hell out of a lead, which is nice.

Sean Payton is trying to figure out what's up with Bo Nix, which is why he threw the ball 42 times in a game effectively decided by halftime in Week 4. Murray has been let down by a lack of playmakers around him and his own penchant to run blindly into danger. Rattler is... kinda nice in a "let's hope we don't have to rely on him" way? At the very least, he's made the Saints offense more fun than it has any right to be.

Tier V: We've seen better from all of you

27. Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.046 EPA+CPOE composite

28. Russell Wilson, New York Giants: 0.045

29. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.036

30. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.029

31. Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.025

Lawrence and Williams are both trending upward — even if the Chicago defense did its damnedest to try and erase the latter's game-winning drive in Las Vegas. Smith, however, has created legitimate concern with his slow start. His interception rate is at a career high and the downfield accuracy that defined him as Seattle's unlikely franchise QB has not translated to Nevada.

Tier VI: It won't stay this bad (probably)

32. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.013 EPA+CPOE composite

33. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.011

Daniels' return will be a boost, even if his offense is scoring more points with Mariota at the helm than he did. Young has turned things around in-season before. The eventual return of Jalen Coker could help him do it again, though there's little good to pull from Week 4's 42-13 stomping in New England.

Tier VII: It might stay this bad, at least for 2025.

34. Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns: 0.003 EPA+CPOE composite

35. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: -0.024

Cam Ward, how are you feeling about your offense after an 0-4 start?

#Titans QB Cam Ward is clearly frustrated with the lack of production on offense starting with himself. "If we keep it a buck right now, we ass." pic.twitter.com/ApQzABZBG2

— TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) September 28, 2025

Yeah, sounds about right.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL QB ranks Week 5: Drake Maye, top-3 quarterback??