The Wild are spending money they don’t have yet, and it’s a bad move.
It’s the feel-good story destined to turn into regret. The Wild averted losing its biggest star in free agency next year by re-signing LW Kirill Kaprizov, ensuring he will stay with in Minnesota throughout his prime. The bad part is that it took the largest contract in NHL history to get the job done.
Kaprizov agreed to an 8-year, $136M deal which makes him the highest-paid player in hockey by a significant margin, clocking in at $17M AAV. That’s more than Leon Draisaitl got from the Oilers ($14M AAV), more than the Maple Leafs are paying Auston Matthews ($13.25M AAV), and more than Nathan McKinnon is making with the Avalanche ($12.6M AAV).
While it’s certainly true that the NHL salary cap will rise, and bigger deals will come along — that doesn’t make it a sensible hockey decision to sign Kaprizov to such a huge contract. It makes even less sense when you dive into how the deal is structured.
How good is Kirill Kaprizov?
There is no question that the Wild left wing is talented. There doesn’t even need to be a debate on that point. Kaprizov won the Calder Trophy, he’s a three-time All-Star, and he would have been a big-money free agent in 2026 — comfortably sitting in second place behind Connor McDavid.
While all that can be true there is another reality here: Kaprizov is a wing on a team loaded at wing, but light on center play. While he can certainly create his own offense, the fundamental lack of strong play in the middle lessens his impact — and Kaprizov is often hurt on top of this. Nothing serious, but in five season he’s only managed to play 70+ games twice.
In 2024-25 not only was Kaprizov limited to 41 games due to injury, but disappeared in critical moments in the Wild’s playoff series against the Golden Knights, leading to yet another first round exit for Minnesota.
We’re left with an exceptionally talented scorer who isn’t particularly tough on the forecheck, and is a little too reliant on the power play to generate his chances. That’s not a player you give a contract that large to — especially when he’s not a two-way center who can dictate the pace of the game.
“But the cap is going up!”
The biggest argument for paying Kaprizov is the increasing NHL salary cap, expected to rise by $25 million in three years. That is certainly true, but it’s a terrible justification for overpaying a guy who isn’t a Top 10 player, and might not be Top 20, depending on who you ask.
Just because someone was going to overpay Kaprizov didn’t mean it had to be the Wild. This was a move based on the pressure of wanting to keep a star player the team drafted, rather than the best hockey decision for team itself. Minnesota would have been better off dealing Kaprizov to a contender, amassing draft capital and keeping open money to deepen their roster.
Unfortunately not only did the Wild choose to overpay Kaprizov, but mortgage their future for him.
The Wild need to be winners right now
The pressure now moves to the front office. They may have Kaprizov locked up, but even with him this is a team that hasn’t made it past the first round of the playoffs — and an organization which hasn’t made it to the second round in over a decade.
Even with the cap set to jump to $113.5M in 2027-28 the Wild will sit at $63.2M in cap allocations with only 10 players under contract. Nobody has more future money committed with less of a team than the Wild, and that’s before factoring in other key contracts that will need to be done, like a new deal for goalie Filip Gustavsson.
We’re left with a scenario where the snake is eating its own tail. Unless the Wild are able to make a significant playoff run they won’t attract veteran free agents on the cheap. There is a really solid group of guys set to debut from Minnesota’s prospect pool in the coming years, but they best hope all of these guys hit if they want to be able to put a cohesive team on the ice.
Will the Wild come to regret this deal?
Absolutely. This was not a good move unless Kirill Kaprizov suddenly finds a way to stay healthy, and morphs into the best scorer in the NHL — which is more blind faith than actual possibility.
Desperation forced Minnesota’s hand into doing whatever it took to retain their star player at the expense of organizational health. As it stands the Wild are the first team to start writing checks with their future salary cap money, sight-unseen on whether or not they’re going to be an elite team or not. This is the risk when you overpay a player early and make future commitments.
For better or worse the Wild are now locked into their current trajectory. That doesn’t mean they can’t be a contending team, especially if their prospect pool pans out — but it’s a significant roll of the dice. If this doesn’t work then the team is now locked into paying Kaprizov until 2033-34, without a great out in the deal.
Time will tell whether the front office are geniuses or fools.
Category: General Sports
