Young and Stroud are a fascinating case study in the dynamics of contract extensions for quarterbacks.
A contract serves the same purpose for a quarterback that an election does for a politician: You’ve got maybe a year or two to appreciate it before it’s time to pretty yourself up for the next one. So, strange as it seems, it’s already time to talk about fifth-year options and extensions for the NFL Draft Class of 2023 — specifically, quarterbacks Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.
Young and Stroud, drafted #1 and #2, respectively, in 2023 are a fascinating case study in the dynamics of contract extensions for quarterbacks. (The other two quarterbacks taken in the first round, Anthony Richardson of Indianapolis and Will Levis of Tennessee, have seen their situations resolved by newer arrivals at their position.)
Every rookie signs a four-year deal with a one-year team option for a fifth. That’s where the massive paydays can hit, in the form of contract extensions, or where a onetime high draft pick suddenly hits the free agent market. Determining whether to extend a quarterback in some cases is an easy yes (see: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes) or an easy no (names withheld to protect the unskilled).
The murky middle between those two choices — easy yes or easy no — is where the art and science of contracts blend together. Front offices need to consider a range of factors far beyond simply what the player does on the field. Is there a progression toward improvement? Is there a better option waiting out there in free agency? Is the team in position to draft an upgrade? Is it worth plunging into an unknown future because of dissatisfaction with the present? Stay the course, or chart new territory?
Cleveland, after four years of Baker Mayfield, opted to go another way and, well ... they are now onto Dillon Gabriel after having given up a boat's ransom to Deshaun Watson. On the flip side, Jacksonville has stuck with Trevor Lawrence, guaranteed him $200 million and still aren't sure if he's their quarterback of the future.
The NFL’s calendar can offer some significant clues as to what Carolina and Houston will do next. Teams must pick up the option for a fifth year on May 1 before the player’s fourth year — so, for Young and Stroud, that date is May 1, 2026.
By that date, the Texans and Panthers will obviously know how they finished in 2025, but more importantly, they’ll have already completed their draft — currently scheduled for April 23-25, 2026, in Pittsburgh. So will they be ready to recommit to their current quarterbacks, or move on? Let’s break down the details.
Bryce Young: How much more time does he have?
Young’s size and demeanor have meant that he’s been underestimated pretty much his entire football life. He was able to overcome his nontraditional-for-a-QB size at Alabama, winning a Heisman along the way, but the NFL isn’t quite so forgiving. Young struggled throughout his first year, averaging 180 passing yards per game and throwing 11 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He led the league in exactly one category: yardage lost on sacks, 477 yards on 62 sacks, and looked overwhelmed and overmatched most of Carolina’s two-win season.
Young began the first two games of 2024 by throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns, a performance that got him benched for Andy Dalton. When Dalton was injured, Young stepped back in and posted better numbers than his rookie season … though not much. Young held onto the job for 2025, though he hasn’t necessarily distinguished himself through the opening four weeks of the year. He has five touchdowns against three interceptions, while the Panthers have only won a single game.
Young will need to step up his performance substantially in the coming months to ensure an extension; Carolina’s struggles across the board mean the Panthers will have a whole lot of options — perhaps even every option — in the 2026 NFL Draft.
CJ Stroud’s dual identity
Stroud is a much trickier case. His rookie year was a revelation. He ranked eighth overall in passing yards, won the Offensive Rookie of the Year, was named to the Pro Bowl, and finished eighth in MVP voting. He threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns, leading the league in both passing yards per game and interception percentage. Houston, it appeared, had found their quarterback for the next decade-plus.
Then came 2024. Despite playing a full 17 games, two more than 2023, Stroud backslid in virtually every major category — yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, and so on. Some of that can be pinned on his offensive line; he was sacked 14 more times in 2024 than in his rookie year. Suddenly the foundation in Houston wasn’t so stable after all.
So far this year, he’s averaging just over 200 yards a game, with four touchdowns and three interceptions through the first four games. The question vexing Houston, then, is: Who’s the real CJ Stroud? Are his struggles a failure to level up, or symptomatic of a larger, franchise-wide breakdown?
The best comparison here, for Stroud in particular, might be someone like Kyler Murray, who performed decently but not spectacularly for Arizona prior to signing his extension. Murray won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019, and led Arizona to 11 wins and a playoff berth in 2021. Arizona nonetheless waited until April 27, 2022, to pick up Murray’s fifth-year option; two months later, the Cardinals offered him a five-year, $230 million ($160 million guaranteed) contract extension.
The question when deciding whether to stand or fold on a quarterback is what else might be out there as a replacement. It’s not enough to cut loose a quarterback to avoid a massive contract; you need to have a reasonable succession plan in place. The 2026 NFL Draft will have a surplus of quarterbacks — LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Oregon’s Dante Moore, Miami’s Carson Beck, Oklahoma’s John Mateer, Penn State’s Drew Allar, possibly even Texas’ Arch Manning. Several of those players will have good, perhaps even exceptional NFL careers … would Houston or Carolina be willing to roll the dice with any of them?
The best outcome for Stroud and Young is that they spend the rest of this season removing all doubt from the decision to pick up the option. A whole lot rides on these next 13 games, for both quarterbacks and both franchises.
Category: General Sports
