Arizona Diamondbacks: October confidence poll

September results

Not sure if it was a result of the new poll provider, but responses were sharply down in September. We had barely half the number of responses received for the August poll. If that persists, I might be tempted to switch over to Google Forms. I would not otherwise expect numbers to be that low, given the team finished August on a strong, and very unexpected run. The D-backs went 17-12 in August, which was their best record for any month this season. Anyway, this was still somewhat reflected in the results:

• 11% – 1 (not confident in the slightest)
• 4% – 2
• 4% – 3
• 14% – 4
• 32% – 5
• 25% – 6
• 7% – 7
• 3% – 8
• 0% – 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

For reasons explained last month, we have no results from August, But comparing the September numbers to those in July, we do see a general uptick. The majority here could be found in the 5-6 range, while in July, is was the 3-5 categories which formed the bulk of responses. Still very little better than a seven, and not much in the bottom two categories either. Overall, the average increased by just shy of a point from two months ago, increasing from 3.81 to 4.75. Still well short of what it was at the beginning of the season, though the best since May.

Below, you can see the breakdown for the past 12 polls’ results, followed by the line graph showing the trends over this and previous seasons.

October poll

The first few weeks in September were pretty good, as the D-backs continued to make a surprising push back into the playoff race. Arizona went 12-6, and then had an 84% Win Probability in a game where victory would have put them back into the third wild-card spot. Of course, it didn’t quite work out like that. The Bunt Heard Round the NL backfired, Arizona lost that night, and were then outscored 32-9 the rest of the way, dropping their final five games to fall back below .500. It was undeniably a disappointing end to the season. On the other hand, simply being in competition in the final week is more than almost anyone would have expected at the trade deadline.

How did it all affect your confidence? What about the news that Torey Lovullo will definitely be back at manager next year? That would be what the poll is for. As ever, feel free to explain your choice in the comments, especially if it has changed from the previous one.