Nine concerns the Dodgers should have about facing the Phillies in the NLDS

All due respect to the Cincinnati Reds.

But the Dodgers' first real test of their World Series title defense is about to begin this weekend.

After advancing past the plucky Reds and their 83-win roster in a best-of-three wild card series this week, the Dodgers will now face a true powerhouse in the best-of-five National League Division Series, matched up against a Philadelphia Phillies team facing unfinished business in the postseason.

For years, the Phillies have been building toward contention. In each of the last four years, they’ve reached the playoffs while increasing their regular-season win total.

Read more:Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Dodgers defeat Reds in Game 2 to advance to NLDS

However, the club’s recent October history has been filled with one disappointment after another: A loss to the Houston Astros in the World Series in 2022. An upset defeat at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2023 NL Championship Series. A four-game elimination to the rival New York Mets in last year’s NLDS.

The hope this year, coming off a 96-win regular season that gave the Phillies a first-round bye and home-field advantage in this NLDS, is that they finally have the path and the pieces to get over the hump. That, almost two decades removed from the franchise’s last World Series, they can climb to baseball’s mountaintop once again.

That was evident during the bye week, when the Phillies sold more than 25,000 tickets for fans to come watch a practice. It will be obvious Saturday night, when the series begins at what will be a raucous Citizens Bank Park.

Ahead of Game 1, here are nine things to know about the Phillies, and the concerns they present to the Dodgers in this NLDS:

A rotation of southpaws

The Phillies are not entering the postseason at full strength. Their staff ace, three-time All-Star right-hander Zack Wheeler, was lost for the season in late August because of a blood clot in his arm.

Their rotation, however, remains daunting nonetheless. And against the Dodgers, it might match up particularly well.

The Phillies' projected rotation for the NLDS includes three left-handed pitchers: Cy Young candidate Cristopher Sánchez (13-5, 2.50 ERA), former All-Star Ranger Suárez (12-8, 3.20 ERA) and talented 27-year-old Jesús Luzardo (15-7, 3.92 ERA).

The Dodgers’ record against left-handed pitchers this year: 24-23 (compared to a 69-46 mark against righties).

Granted, most teams have a harder time with lefties (the Phillies themselves are only 23-25). The Dodgers still ranked third in the majors in OPS and seventh in batting average against them. But for a team that could use as many runs as possible given the problems in the bullpen, getting three left-handed starters could make life tough.

Cristopher Sánchez in Game 1

Sánchez is lined up to pitch Saturday’s opener for the Phillies, which means he could be in play for a potential Game 4 start as well.

And while he might not replicate the dominance of Wheeler, who has a 2.18 ERA in his postseason career, the fifth-year southpaw could certainly come close.

In 32 starts this year, the 6-foot-6 sinker-ball specialist had 212 strikeouts in 202 innings, led all major league pitchers in Baseball Reference’s version of wins-above-replacement and finished the regular season allowing just total seven runs in his last six starts.

His postseason track record is limited, with a 3.68 ERA in two previous starts over the last two Octobers. But his arsenal profiles as premium, playoff-caliber stuff, featuring his mid-90s mph two-seamer (which helped him rack up one of the best ground-ball rates in the majors), a changeup to neutralize right-handed hitters (it had a .170 batting average against and 45% whiff rate) and a slider that, when on, adds another layer of unpredictability.

If it weren’t for Paul Skenes, Sánchez likely would have been the NL’s Cy Young frontrunner.

A potent offense

Few MLB lineups can rival the Dodgers’ combination of talent and production.

The Phillies might be the most potent exception.

This season, the team ranked eighth in scoring (the Dodgers were third), second in batting average (the Dodgers were sixth), fourth in slugging percentage (the Dodgers were second) and fourth in OPS (the Dodgers were second).

Read more:Shaikin: Why the Dodgers don't need to worry about rested starting pitchers for NLDS

They have the NL batting champion in former Dodgers shortstop Trea Turner. They have the league’s home run king in Kyle Schwarber, whose 56 long balls edged out Shohei Ohtani by one. And they have one of the game’s biggest stars in two-time MVP Bryce Harper.

The offense is also coming into the playoffs hot. In September, the Phillies posted their best team batting average and OPS of any month this season. That included a 15-run outburst in two games at Dodger Stadium that effectively ensured the Phillies would get a top-two seed in the NL playoff bracket.

The batting champion

Dodgers fans will need no introduction to Turner, who played with the club in 2021 and 2022 before signing an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Phillies (after the Dodgers failed to even make him a contract offer).

Turner’s Philadelphia tenure didn’t get off to the smoothest start. He missed the All-Star Game in 2023, and slumped so mightily at one point Phillies fans organized a stadium-wide ovation. His numbers were better last season, but he missed a month with a hamstring strain and then went just three-for-15 in the playoffs.

This season, on the other hand, has been a revival, as Turner won his second career batting title with a .304 average, stole his most bases (36) since 2018, and ranked fourth among MLB shortstop in outs above average.

And while he did miss three weeks in September with a hamstring strain, he returned in time for the club’s regular-season finale last Sunday.

The home run king

For the first time since 2022, Ohtani did not lead his league in home runs in this year.

Despite setting a personal high and breaking his previous franchise record, Ohtani’s 55 long balls still trailed Schwarber.

A longtime slugging threat now in his 11th MLB campaign, Schwarber had arguably his best career season this year, coupling his 56 homers with an MLB-most 132 RBIs, a .928 OPS that tied his career high, and a third consecutive 100-walk season.

He still strikes out a lot (197 this year). He still doesn’t hit for the best average (.240 this year, .231 in his career). But no one in the sport hits the ball so hard, so consistently. No one presents such a unique threat.

The two-time MVP

By Harper’s likely Hall of Fame standards, 2025 has been a bit of a disappointment.

The 32-year-old battled a wrist issue early in the year, was not selected for the All-Star at the halfway point, and finished the campaign with his lowest batting (.261) since 2019 and worst OPS (.844) since 2016.

But it’s still Bryce Harper.

He hit 27 home runs and 32 doubles. His slugging percentage jumped nearly 70 points in the second half. And over the last three years, no one has a higher postseason OPS (minimum 50 plate appearances) than Harper’s 1.153 mark. Only Schwarber has matched his 12 playoff home runs in this time.

The deadline acquisitions

Unlike the Dodgers, the Phillies were aggressive at the trade deadline. And because of it, they added what are now two key pieces.

In the outfield, Harrison Bader (who was also a Dodgers target this year) has been a revelation with a .305 batting average and .824 OPS in 50 games with the Phillies.

Even more important, however, has been the addition of hard-throwing closer (and another player linked to the Dodgers at the deadline) Jhoan Duran in a new-look bullpen.

Read more:Hernández: Can the Dodgers win a World Series with such an unreliable bullpen?

Early this season, the Phillies’ original closer, José Alvarado, received an 80-game PED that also made him ineligible for this year’s postseason. Thus, the Phillies acquired Duran from the Minnesota Twins, and have since watched him flourish.

Duran had a 2.18 ERA with the Phillies while converting 16 of his 19 save opportunities. He has devastating stuff, headlined by a 100-mph fastball and a whopping 98-mph splitter.

The only good news for the Dodgers: They’ve had success against him. In Duran’s three outings against the team this year, he yielded three runs (more than any other team scored off him) and gave up two homers (he only gave up one other all year).

Bullpen depth

Beyond Duran, the Phillies have a relatively set bullpen hierarchy.

David Robertson (the 40-year-old veteran who signed with the club midseason) and Matt Strahm (a lockdown lefty) are the primary set-up men. Tanner Banks (another lefty) and Orion Kerkering provide further middle relief depth.

With that unit in place, the Phillies’ bullpen excelled down the stretch. After the deadline, the group led the majors in saves (20), was charged with the fewest losses (four) and ranked 11th in ERA.

Walker Buehler’s new gig

One other pitcher that could be in the Phillies’ NLDS bullpen: Walker Buehler, the former Dodgers star and 2024 World Series hero who finished this season in Philadelphia.

After signing with the Boston Red Sox in the offseason, then being released with a 5.45 ERA in August, Buehler found some late-season success with the Phillies, giving up just one run in 13 ⅔ innings over three outings (two starts and a long relief appearance) at the end of the year.

Buehler is unlikely to play a pivotal role this postseason. But he is in contention to be on the club’s postseason roster, likely as an option against right-handed hitters.

It means, a year after closing out the Dodgers' World Series championship, he will be part of the club trying to end their title defense. As if the team didn’t have enough else to worry about.

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.