We Need This One
Recapping the Recap
First, a note on my last article. Born out of necessity due to being swamped early in the week, I decided to try something different and offer some quick “snap judgments.” It seemed to be a mixed bag.
The benefits of this approach are simple: you catch the raw, the visceral – the sentiments that define being a fan. Of course, as a follower of the Minnesota Vikings, this often is accompanied by feelings of perpetual dread, worst-case scenarios unfolding, and the predictable sense of, “Here we go again.”
It puts a spotlight on the emotional rollercoaster. From crashing down from the high of J.J. McCarthy’s brilliant fourth-quarter comeback in Week 1 to the prospect of being 2-2 during the “easiest” stretch of the schedule, with uncertainty over the status of our center and right tackle moving forward, to suddenly having more question marks than the décor at the Riddler’s house, we run the gamut.
(NOTE: In typical Vikings’ fashion, we get good news on O’Neill’s injury (no IR) but then hit with the Van Ginkel neck injury news. My wife and I joke that many of the funny, awkward, and uncomfortable situations in everyday life can be traced to an episode of Seinfeld. So too can bad football news and Vikings precedent. I surely wasn’t alone in being instantly transported back to 2020, Zimmer’s infamous, dismissive “tweak” comment about Danielle Hunter’s neck issue, and the subsequent zero snaps Hunter ended up taking that season.)
The downside of this “snap judgment” approach? You draw conclusions from incomplete data, which is always a perilous proposition. Upon reviewing more detailed game clips, content here at the DN, and posts from other Vikings-related social media accounts, the picture becomes clearer. Or, should I say, “balanced” — as in there’s plenty of blame to go around.
Whatever narrative one wishes to embrace as to our struggles, there’s video evidence to support it. Is Carson Wentz holding the ball too long, too frequently? Yes. After review, were there indeed quick, shorter routes open? Yes. Were some rendered ineffective as primary read(s) were longer developing? Sure. Has KOC been criticized too harshly? Perhaps. Has the offensive line played poorly? Yes. Are they still struggling to block stunts? Absolutely. Have there been inexcusable breakdowns in basic protections? Yes. Have injuries exacerbated all of these factors? Duh.
Just the Facts
These are the statistical realities:
- Not counting defensive touchdowns, for which the offense has no input, the Vikings are averaging 17.7 points and 284.5 total yards per contest over the past six games that mattered (dating to Week 18 last season against the Lions).
- So far this season, the Vikings are 30th in the NFL in third-down conversion rate (30.61%).
- They’re 27th in offensive EPA/play (-0.09)
- Per Alec Lewis of The Athletic, the Vikings’ 13.1% sack rate through four games is the fourth highest of any team since the Next Gen Stats began tracking it in 2018.
- The Vikings are second in the NFL in penalties (37), seventh in penalty yards (287), and first in pre-snap penalties.
You’re not going to find a bigger KOC supporter than me. I love the guy and am thrilled he’s our head coach. That being said, you have to be honest when the evidence is there: He’s officially in a slump.
The 17.7 points and paltry 284.5 yards-per-game over the last six came with three QBs playing two games apiece. Darnold collapsed after nearly a full season at the helm, while McCarthy was in-house all of last year and took all the starter reps since the spring. Wentz is the new guy thrust into the starting role after being with the team for under a month.
By comparison, during the Vikings’ awful 1-4 start in 2023 (with Kirk Cousins), the team averaged 22 points and 362 yards per game. Josh Dobbs came in without knowing the playbook or teammates’ names and put up 17.8 points and 306 yards per game in his starts. When Nick Mullens came in during the final month, the numbers were 19.5 points and 368 yards, respectively.
Make of that what you will.
The good news? I have the utmost confidence that KOC will get this fixed. We have one of the earliest byes in the NFL. Usually, teams frown upon that, given the arduous mental and physical grind of a long season. For us, it’s a blessing. An added week to reassess schematics and get healthy.
However, there’s still one hurdle…
Cleveland May Rock, but They’re Not Rolling
Browns fans surely roll their eyes at the historic plight of Vikings fans and their tales of woe and heartbreak.
Nonsense.
As I explained in an earlier article, the nature of the Vikings’ torture is worse:
It’s the hope that distinguishes us from other tortured fan bases (Browns, Lions, etc.) and makes the psychological damage cut deeper. Historically, we rarely bottom out. We have the fourth-highest winning percentage in the Super Bowl era. Of course, every other team in the Top 10 has at least two Super Bowl victories. That’s the problem. It’s about being just good enough to believe, to rationalize a path to a Super Bowl without setting up camp outside the boundaries of reality.
I’ll defend this position until I’m blue in the face, but that’s an argument for another time and place.
Not that the plight of Browns’ fans isn’t excruciating. I have the utmost sympathy, I assure you. After a 3-14 season last year, they enter Week 5 with a 1-3 record. That one win, of course, was a humbling of the idiot Packers in Week 3. Let us all take a moment to thank them for that. They lost a killer season opener in Week 1 to the Bengals, 17-16, and got throttled by a combined score of 75-27 in losses to the Ravens and stupid Lions. Needless to say, things are not going well for our old pal, Kevin Stefanski.
After Joe Flacco couldn’t revitalize an offense that scored over 20 points just three times in 2024, it’s now officially the Dillon Gabriel Show. The southpaw takes over an offense that is struggling by any objective measure, ranking 27th in total yards, 25th in first-downs (tied), and 31st in points. To make matters worse, one of their starting wide receivers, Cedric Tillman, has already been declared out for Sunday’s contest.
Logic would dictate that Stefanski will lean on Quinshon Judkins and the running game (where we’ve struggled on defense) and put Gabriel in as many risk-adverse situations as possible. It makes sense; we’re sitting at 24th in rush defense so far (130 yards per game). I’d also expect yet another week of being attacked with the short, quick passing game to manufacture as much rhythm and confidence as possible for the young signal caller. Brian Flores is 4-0 as the Vikings’ defensive coordinator against rookie QBs, so there’s that, too.
On defense, the stats tell a weird story for the Browns. They’re first in yards allowed per-game (890/222.5 per-game), first in yards allowed per-play, tied for seventh in sacks, but only 24th in points allowed per-game (102). I’m sure the latter is a result of the Browns’ offense frequently putting the defense in some of the least advantageous situations imaginable (i.e., turnovers in their own territory, short fields, poor special teams, etc.).
Prediction
In forecasting the 2025 season back in May, I had this to say regarding Week 5:
Week 5: @Cleveland Browns (London): I see Costco is now selling the enormous Plinko board from The Price is Right. This will come in handy for Kevin Stefanski to decide which of his 12 QBs will start each week. Regardless of where the giant chip lands, we win this one.
Minnesota Vikings: 28
Cleveland Browns: 10
LOL. As soon as this article is submitted, I’m going to put on some clown makeup, my jabroni cap, and sit in the corner for an hour to contemplate the foolishness of my actions.
I harbor no illusions here. We’re going to have our hands full. Myles Garrett is banged up but will certainly be a go for Sunday. With backup center Michael Jurgens’s status very much up in the air, Wes Phillips and Chris Kuper may be dispatched to the streets of London, complete with business cards for anyone they see over six feet tall and 275 pounds. No Donovan Jackson. No Brian O’Neill. Possibly Blake Brandel at center. I’m nauseous…hold on.
Okay, I’m back. Even with my super-duper purple-colored glasses of extraordinary bias on, it’s not easy reaching 10 wins (and the playoffs) if we drop this one. I’m doubtful that 9-8 will get it done this year. Just being honest.
I knew we weren’t going to go 14-3 again, but to equal the number of regular-season losses from last year by Week 5 would be incredibly deflating. This can’t happen. This won’t happen. No. No. No. Dammit, no.
Going into the bye at 2-3 with the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Ravens on the upcoming slate would, unfortunately, be fitting for the Halloween season. Scary, horrifying, and indeed no treat. We need this one.
Vikings: 17
Browns: 14
Category: General Sports
