Breaking Down Paul Toboni’s Draft Philosophy

A new president of baseball operations means changes to everything in how the Nationals operate, including scouting and the amateur draft. The new man in charge, Paul Toboni, is coming from an organization that has excelled in the draft process the last few seasons, with their current young position player core of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell all being draft selections by the club, with Anthony and Campbell being picked up after the 1st round.

Despite the 66-96 record, the Nationals, like in 2024, cannot pick higher than 10th in the 2026 MLB Draft due to anti-tanking rules put in place. This time around, they’ll be picking 11th, as the Rockies, who are facing the same consequences of being bad repeatedly, will pick 10th. Luckily for the Nats, the 2026 draft class is a deep class, boasting some impressive prep and college talents. Using the Red Sox’s recent draft classes as a reference, let’s take a look at the philosophy Paul Toboni is likely to be bringing to the Nationals organization when it comes to the amateur draft.

Hitter Heavy, But Not To A Fault

Before the 2025 MLB Draft, the Red Sox had selected a position player with their past 6 first-round picks. I was banking on this trend to continue when I put together my mock drafts leading up to draft day, but to my surprise, they broke that trend, selecting right-handed pitcher Kyson Witherspoon from Oklahoma with the 15th overall pick instead. I, along with many analysts, considered Witherspoon a top 10 talent in the class, so I believe the Red Sox got excellent value selecting him.

What this told me, which elevates my opinion on Toboni and the staff he worked with, was that they were willing to be flexible in their plan and adjust on the spot, taking a swing on a prospect they really liked when a hitter they could have been targeting did not fall to them. Entering 2026, I will be keeping my eye on primarily hitters when it comes to the Nationals’ first round pick, but don’t discount Toboni’s willingness to pounce on a pitcher that slides down the board.

Up The Middle Position Players

Like many other analytically minded ball clubs, the Red Sox have targeted almost exclusively position players who play the up-the-middle positions, those being catcher, shortstop, second base, and center field, in the draft. So much so that over the past 3 amateur drafts, they have not selected a player who wasn’t a pitcher or one of those positions. The basic reasoning for this is that teams believe if you are athletic enough to play one of those positions, you are athletic enough to play anywhere on the diamond, letting them get creative with how they develop their prospects.

Take, for example, the young Marcelo Mayer, who they drafted and developed as a shortstop, but have used at third base since his call up to the big leagues, which he has handled admirably. Same with Kristian Campbell, who they brought up as a second baseman but have experimented with at different spots in pro ball, even giving him reps at first base when Tristan Casas suffered a season-ending injury. Selecting great athletes at valuable positions allows clubs to become extremely versatile in how they build out their roster, and Toboni and the Red Sox understood that well.

Big Strikeout Stuff

When the Red Sox are selecting pitchers, they favor arms with big-time strikeout stuff, and it’s worked out well for them in recent classes. Take, for example, Payton Tolle, their 2nd-round pick in the 2024 draft, who rose from High A all the way to the big leagues in 2025, including making a big-time relief appearance for the Sox in Game 2 of the AL Wild Card. Tolle pitched for Wichita State for 2 years before transferring to TCU in his draft year, and his stuff continued to improve, striking out over 13 batters per 9 innings in 2024. He didn’t throw the hardest, and walks were still an issue for him, but the Red Sox took a chance on him in the 2nd-round, and their reward for their faith is one of the best young left-handed pitching prospects in baseball.

Consider also Connerly Early, their 5th-round pick in the 2023 draft, who started game three of the AL Wild Card for them. Early transferred to UVA from Army in his draft year and struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings, and the Red Sox believed there was even more room for improvement. They were correct, as Early struck out over 11 batters per 9 innings over 100 innings in the minors in 2025. Strikeout stuff doesn’t always come from the hardest throwers, but rather sometimes those with the best command or breaking balls, and Toboni and the Red Sox organization understood that well.

2026 Names To Watch

While it is entirely too early to be looking ahead at the 2026 draft, as so much will change from today to mid-July of next year, it’s still fun to look ahead at the potential names that fit the new Nationals president’s draft philosophy. Who knows, maybe one of these players will be the selection and you learned about them before anyone else did.

SS Tyler Bell Kentucky

It’s too early to tell, but Bell checks a lot of boxes that Toboni and his staff will be looking for when the draft rolls around next year. Bell is a switch-hitting shortstop who is a draft-eligible sophomore in the 2026 class, meaning he only just completed his freshman year at Kentucky.

There is room to grow, but Bell performed very admirably in his first year of collegiate ball, posting a 100 wRC+ and playing excellent defense at shortstop in the toughest conference in the sport. If he breaks out with his bat in his sophomore season, then it is unlikely he will even be available 11th overall for the Nats to scoop up, but with such a deep class, anything can happen.

C Vahn Lackey Georgia Tech

Lackey is an extremely polished defender behind the dish, with excellent athleticism to go along with it. The bat is still developing, but has shown promise, posting a 110 wRC+ in his sophomore season at Georgia Tech. The power isn’t quite there yet, but is coming along, as he’s posted solid exit velocities. His speed is excellent even among non-catchers, as he swiped 18 bags in 2025 and has room for more. Lackey is a lock to stick at catcher, and if the bat continues to blossom, he will likely be gone before the Nats pick next year.

OF Drew Burress Georgia Tech

Burress is a bigger stretch than the other 2 because he seems to me unlikely to fall out of the top 10 in next year’s draft, but nothing is ever set in stone in regards to the draft, especially this far out, so I’ll include him anyway. Burress is a beast at the plate, posting a 173 wRC+ his freshman season and a 151 wRC+ his sophomore season at Georgia Tech.

He stands at only 5’9”, but is so efficient at generating power with his body and his swing that it doesn’t really matter. He also has a great hit tool, taking a healthy amount of walks and making lots of contact when he does swing. He plays center field currently and does so well, but could be better suited for a corner outfield spot in pro ball. Wherever he does end up defensively, he is going to hit so well that it will not matter.

RHP Liam Peterson Florida

There are a couple of pitchers at the top of this class that could end up being available at the Nationals pick, but for today, I will highlight the best power conference pitcher in the draft, as that is where most of the Red Sox pitching success stories have come from. The results haven’t quite been there for Peterson yet in his time at Florida, posting a 6.43 and 4.28 ERA in his first 2 seasons in Gainesville, but the signs of a breakout are all there, as his FIP and strikeout numbers are those of a first-round pick.

He sits mid-90s with his fastball, touching 99 a few times as well, and he has a strong slider and changeup to go along with it. His command has continually improved, and if he can bring the walk numbers down again in 2026, he is due for a breakout. Paul Toboni himself has said he wants to target guys who throw hard and strike guys out, and Peterson checks both of those boxes off in a big way.