Can Nevada turn things around as it starts MW play?
Nevada’s 1-3 start to the season isn’t what anyone on the supporting side wanted, but with the bye week over and conference play on the horizon, there’s still time to turn things around.
Nevada will travel to face a longtime rival in Fresno State. It also marks the last time these two schools will play in the near future (Fresno State will move to the Pac-12 next season and these two programs are currently not scheduled to face each other.)
Nevada (1-3)(0-0) @ Fresno State (4-1)(1-0)
Location: Valley Children’s Stadium
Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 4 at 7:30 p.m. PST
Broadcast: CBSSN
Betting line: Fresno State is favored by 13.5 points. The over/under is 45.5.
History: Fresno State leads 33-22-1. The last matchup resulted in Fresno State beating Nevada, 24-21, on Oct. 18, 2024 in Reno.
Keys to the game
- Break the losing streak vs. conference opponents
Nevada has not had great luck against its own conference as of late. The Pack currently has an 11-game losing streak against the Mountain West has gone 2-21 in the conference since the start of the 2022 season. Nevada’s last conference win was a 34-24 victory over New Mexico at Mackay Stadium on Oct. 28, 2023.
Head coach Jeff Choate is also looking for his first conference win as a member of the Pack, currently sitting at 0-7. Choate also has a history against Fresno State head coach Matt Entz, who is in his first season with the Bulldogs. Entz was the head coach of North Dakota State from 2019-2023, going 60-11 and defeating Choate’s Montana State Bobcats 42-14 in the FCS semifinals in 2019.
- Two struggling offenses: Who can come out on top?
Fresno State’s offense is averaging 33 points a game and 374 yards a game, so why am I saying its offense is also struggling? Well, those numbers don’t tell the whole story of this Bulldogs offense.
For starters, QB E.J. Warner (son of HOF Kurt Warner) is 93-of-127 for 946 yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions. He has thrown the ball 20 or more yards down the field on only 6.3 percent of his attempts. The 33 points a game is also a bit inflated, as that number is at 27 points per game against FBS opponents.
Fresno State also has two defensive scores and a special teams score in those games. Take all of that out, and you’re down to 22.5 points per game. The Bulldogs’ rush attack has also been a work in progress.
Nevada isn’t any better. The Pack’s offense is averaging 15 points per game and 339 yards. Quarterback Chubba Purdy is 40-of-73 for 494 yards and one touchdown and six interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing with 276 yards and two touchdowns on 56 carries.
It’s unknown what the QB situation will look like for this game, but Purdy played the entire game against Western Kentucky outside of a few snaps. There’s no question that his ability to use his legs opens up the offense, but it just hasn’t been enough to make a big impact.
- Be ready for a defensive line bloodbath
A strength for both of these programs this year has been their defense, specifically their defensive line. For Nevada, edge rushers Dylan LaBarbera and Jonathan Maldonado have been one of the best duos in all of college football. According to PFSN College, LaBarbera ranks the highest graded G5 player this season at 99.8.
Fresno State’s defense has also been playing well. Six different players have at least one interception, and the edge players of Merhauti Xepera, Finn Claypool, Korey Foreman and Jahzon Jacks have combined for 11 of the defense’s 23 tackles for loss.
The defensive line, in general, has played well, combining for 14 tackles for loss and eight sacks. The Bulldogs rotate several players on the line and have clearly been effective.
The wins so far for both sides are largely credited from the defensive standpoint, especially for Nevada’s lone win. It’s all about whether one offense can finally pick up the pace and play at a higher, more consistent level.
Prediction
As much as I believe in Nevada’s defense, the offense has proven enough for me to envision a victory for the Pack in this game. I don’t think it’ll be a total blowout, but I do see Fresno State pulling away.
I’ll go with 27-14 Fresno State.
Category: General Sports
