Kansas State Football: Baylor Preview – Offense

Baylor Offense by the Numbers

Pass Attempts / Game: 43.2

Receiving Yards / Game: 349.4

Rush Attempts / Game: 34.6

Rushing Yards / Game: 154.8

Total Offense / Game: 504.2

Turnovers / Game: 1.6

Baylor Roster

Key Players – Offense

Quarterback: Sawyer Robertson – 6’4”, 220 – Sr.

Passing: 133/211 Attempts – 63% Comp% – 1715 Yards – 17 Touchdowns – 3 Interceptions

Rushing: 20 Attempts – 9 Yards – 1 Touchdowns

PFF Grades: Off : 69 – Pass: 67.9 – Run: 59.8

Running Back: Bryson Washington – 6’0”, 216 – Jr.

Rushing: 93 Attempts – 492 Yards – 5 Touchdowns

Receiving: 9 Receptions – 41 Yards

PFF Grades: Off: 73.5 – Run: 77.2

Receiver: – Josh Cameron – 6’1”, 224 – Sr.

Receiving: 40 Targets – 27 Receptions – 407 Yards – 3 Touchdowns

PFF Grades: Off: 68.1 – Rec: 67.5 – Drop: 79.5 – Fumble: 29.2

Offensive Line: Right Guard – Omar Aigbedion – 6’3” – 310 – Sr.

Stats: 332 Snaps – 2 QB Hits Allowed – 2 QB Hurries – 4 QB Pressures – 2 Penalties

PFF Grades: Off: 80 – Run Block: 85 – Pass Block: 70.1

Key Points for the Kanas State Defense

Defend the center of the field!

Sawyer Robertson’s passing chart is wild. He has attempted 127 passes in the four center quadrants of the field (behind the line, short center (0-10 yards), intermediate center (0-20 yards), and deep center (20+)) combined. He’s attempted 77 passes to all other areas of the field.

The Baylor offense is especially reliant upon Roberson completing passes in the short center, where he is 38/54 on the season for 401 yards and a touchdown. The Bears have picked up 19 first downs utilizing passes in the short center quadrant and 14 in the intermediate center. When they need a first down, those are the first places they look, and generally speaking, they want to find their 6’4”, 240-pound tight end Michael Trigg. Trigg has 14 first-down receptions, and nine of them are from catches in the short or intermediate center.

Like last week, I want to see the defensive tackles get their hands into the passing lane and Austin Romaine and VJ Payne to make the center of the field an unpleasant experience for any Baylor receiver or tight end bold enough to challenge the ‘Cats straight up the gut. Baylor likes to flex Trigg into the slot on third down and ideally get him matched up against a smaller safety or defensive back. The Wildcats need to ensure Trigg sees a healthy dose of Des Purnell when he flexes out, preventing him from posting up and picking up easy first downs in the middle of the field.

Also, defend the center of the field!

Not only does Baylor like to throw the ball in the center of the field, but they also like to run the ball in the center of the field with Bryson Washington.

Washington has 65 rushing attempts between the tackles. He can run outside, but he’s at his best when he can get downhill and punish in the A gaps. When Baylor gets their inside run game working, they’re a handful for any defense to stop, much less a defense like Kansas State, who tends to struggle against teams that want to line up and run straight up the gut. This defense was built for speed to the edges but lacks depth in the interior.

This is where the game will be won or lost for the K-State defense tomorrow. Baylor’s passing game is solid, but it needs the consistency the inside run game brings to the table. When they need a first down, they’re looking to crease the defense with an A gap run between the center and left guard or an inside zone run to the B gap between the right guard and right tackle. If the ‘Cats can hold up in that area, I like their chances. If they don’t, Baylor is going to do what several teams have done this season and physically dominate the defense while the offense stands around on the sideline and watches the game.

Show me how Kansas State performed against the inside rush after the game, and I’m pretty sure I can predict the outcome without any additional information.

The Pass Rush Needs to Get Right, Literally

If you’re looking for the weak spot on the Baylor offense line, he’s not hard to find. Kaden Sieracki is a massive human being at 6’9”, 317, but he has been leaky in pass protection this season. According to PFF, while he hasn’t given up a sack, he has allowed a team-high 12 quarterback pressures, including giving up an abysmal six pressures against Oklahoma State last week.

I’m looking for the K-State defense to match their bull rushers, such as Chiddi Obiazor and Ryan Davis, with Sieracki and try to get into Sieracki’s body to push him into the lap of the quarterback. At 6’9”, it’s tough for the speed rush to get the corner in time to make a play, but if you get inside Sieracki’s pads, you can take him with you to the quarterback.

Like most quarterbacks, Robertson isn’t nearly as good under pressure as he is in a clean pocket. He has completed 20/40 attempts under pressure and has taken seven sacks. He wants to hang in the pocket and deliver the ball. He’s not a hard quarterback to find; he’s generally 5-7 yards behind the center, and he’s not particularly fleet of foot. The defense line needs to make him uncomfortable all game long, because if you let him deal from a clean pocket, he will pick the secondary apart.

Overall

Arizona State and Auburn held Baylor under 30 points. The Bears are 0-2 in those games.

SMU, Samford, and Oklahoma State gave up 40+ against Baylor. The Bears are 3-0 in those games.

Meanwhile…

Iowa State, Army, and Arizona all held the Wildcats to 21 points or less. Kansas State is 0-3 in those games.

Kansas State does not want to turn this into a referendum on who can score the most points because Baylor is at their best in high-scoring games, and Kansas State’s offense has been consistently inconsistent all season.

I like Kansas State in a game played in the 20’s.

I like Baylor in a game played in the 30’s or above.

Sometimes, football is a simple game. Kansas State’s defense needs to step up if the ‘Cats want to win consecutive games for the first time this season. Color me skeptical.