Breaking down the biggest question, best- and worst-case scenarios, and win projection for the Bucks in 2025-26.
The 2025-26 NBA season is here! Over the next few weeks, we're examining the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and win projections for all 30 franchises — from the still-rebuilding teams to the true title contenders.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
2024-25 finish
Record: 48-34 (fifth in the East, lost to the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs)
Offensive rating: 115.1 (10th)
Defensive rating: 112.7 (12th)
Offseason moves
Additions: Myles Turner, Gary Harris, Cole Anthony, Amir Coffey, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Mark Sears
Subtractions: Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton
The Big Question: Can Milwaukee craft a new framework for contention around Giannis Antetokounmpo?
It’s not just that the home-run swing didn’t put the ball in the upper deck — that after moving heaven, earth and Jrue Holiday to put Damian Lillard next to Antetokounmpo, the Bucks wound up without a 50-win campaign or a playoff series victory in the Giannis-and-Dame era, and with just three total playoff game wins over two seasons.
It’s that, as someone smart recently reminded me, Lillard’s tragic Achilles rupture in the opening minutes of Game 4 of Milwaukee’s first-round series against the Pacers eliminated one potentially fruitful pathway to a brighter future: the possibility the Bucks could have rerouted Lillard for more raw materials with which to fashion a new, more competitive version of the team.
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Even in the doldrums of a personal and professional downturn, Lillard averaged 24.6 points on .604 true shooting, 7 assists and 4.5 rebounds in 35.7 minutes per game across two seasons in Milwaukee, made consecutive All-Star appearances, and finished 10th in the NBA in points and assists per game and 11th in offensive estimated plus-minus last season. Even with two years and $112.6 million left on the contract of the 35-year-old Lillard, there’s a decent chance that general manager Jon Horst could’ve found a trade partner willing to part with some real stuff that would re-stock a Milwaukee cupboard that’s awfully bare; thanks to the 2020 trade that made Holiday a Buck and the 2023 deal that shipped Holiday to Portland for Lillard, the Bucks have traded away control of their first-round pick in every season from now through 2030.
When the injury closed that path, though, Horst had to find another. So he swallowed hard and used the stretch provision to move on from the remainder of Lillard’s contract — at the cost of a $22.5 million dead-money charge that’ll sit on the Bucks’ books every year from now through 2030 — so that Milwaukee could swing a surprise move for erstwhile Pacers center Myles Turner, an eight years younger stylistic replacement for outgoing stretch rim protector Brook Lopez.
“Maximizing Giannis’ prime, our opportunities to win, I feel like that’s our responsibility always,” Horst told Eric Nehm of The Athletic at Summer League. “So it was really a now versus future decision.”
It’s a bold pivot — one aimed at turning the lemons of the disastrous Lillard injury into the ostensible lemonade of being able to continue flanking Giannis with a floor-spacing center who can also patrol the paint, thus granting the Bucks access to the most optimal version of a player who continues to operate at an MVP level. Just how sweet and refreshing the result is, though, will depend on just how much head coach Doc Rivers can get out of a hodgepodge of complementary pieces who don’t necessarily scream “a team that allows me and gives me a chance to win a championship.”
This time last year, the Bucks had Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, Damian Lillard, and Pat Connaughton.
— Bucks Film Room (@BucksFilmRoom) September 7, 2025
Now they have Myles Turner, Kyle Kuzma, and Kevin Porter Jr.
Life comes at you fast.
Giannis, Turner and the re-signed Bobby Portis make for a dynamite trio up front. Preseason hope springs eternal that Kyle Kuzma, imported at the 2025 trade deadline in exchange for beloved-but-oft-injured franchise favorite Khris Middleton, will be better in his first full season in Milwaukee than he was when we last saw him. (Which, considering he shot 34% from the field and 20% from 3 in Round 1 against Indiana, getting his minutes dramatically slashed, shouldn’t be too difficult.)
Sprinkle in the always-steady, rarely-more-than-that Taurean Prince (43.9% from 3-point land last season) and potential bargain-bin find Amir Coffey (40.9% from deep for the Clippers), and the Bucks could have a fairly formidable frontcourt, all things considered. The questions, though, lie in the backcourt, where losing Lillard leaves the Bucks without a proven, experienced top scoring threat or playmaker.
Rivers recently suggested the re-signed Kevin Porter Jr. will start at one of the guard spots. It’s a significant vote of confidence for the 25-year-old, who flashed explosive talent as a rookie in Cleveland before finding himself traded to the Rockets following a locker-room outburst and who developed into a high-scoring starter on bad Rockets teams before being arrested in a domestic violence incident that resulted in him exiting Houston and the NBA at large. After playing in Greece for the 2023-24 season, Porter Jr. reached a plea deal, signed a free-agent deal with the Clippers and landed in Milwaukee in a three-team deal at February’s trade deadline.
Porter produced well in limited duty off the Bucks’ bench down the stretch — just under 12 points, four rebounds and four assists in 20 minutes per game on 49/31/87 shooting splits — and will get a chance to step into a larger role on a Bucks team that needs someone to lighten the shot-creation workload on Giannis. Who lines up next to him, though, could tell us what Doc sees as this iteration of the Bucks’ best chance of consistently competing.
Does he start the young, defense-first Ryan Rollins, aiming to play big and physical up and down the lineup in an attempt to build a top-10 defense? That might be the Bucks’ most direct path to a successful identity: They allowed 115.7 points per 100 possessions with Lillard on the court last season, which would’ve ranked 19th in the league over the course of the full season, and just 113.6 points-per-100 with him off, which would’ve been just outside the top 10.
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Does he go with a more experienced shooter, like Gary Trent Jr., A.J. Green or the just-signed Gary Harris, in an effort to get as much 3-point shooting as possible on the floor to space things out for Giannis, trusting that he’ll be able to get downhill, spray the ball out and maximize what could be a top-10 offense with good health? Does ex-Magic spark plug Cole Anthony, who just played with a pair of big, bruising ball-handling wings in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, get into the mix? Does he damn the torpedoes, throw two of Kuzma, Prince and Coffey in there next to Turner and Porter in a giganto-ball lineup, and just go full Point Giannis until either somebody stops it or Antetokounmpo’s too exhausted to keep going?
None of those options seems perfect; it feels like you have to squint awfully hard to see those groups propelling the Bucks toward playing for an NBA championship. But perfect was never on the menu — not after the best-laid plans went awry, not after consecutive first-round exits, and certainly not after Dame went down in a heap. The hope is this model of the Bucks, imperfect though it is, will still be pretty damn good — ideally, good enough in a decimated East to still have a puncher’s chance at making enough postseason noise to keep the big fella happy. Which, at the end of the day, is the most important thing for the Bucks each and every year.
Best-case scenario
Turner proves precisely the hand-in-glove fit Horst and Co. hoped for, preparing the path for Point Giannis, who absolutely incinerates everything in front of him. The shooters make shots, the wings guard their yard, Myles cleans up the messes at the rim, and Antetokounmpo takes care of everything else, carrying the Bucks to 50-plus wins — winning his third MVP trophy in the process — and that long-awaited return to the late stages of the playoffs.
Pleased by the state of affairs, Antetokounmpo signs a new max extension next summer. Everybody in Wisconsin exhales.
If everything falls apart
None of the guards and wings look like championship-caliber pieces, and Doc can’t perform triage effectively enough to find workable combinations. Giannis picks up a soft-tissue injury that costs him 15 or so games, and Milwaukee absolutely craters in his absence. The Bucks spend the season skulking around .500 and sputter out early — either in the play-in tournament or in yet another first-round disappointment — and, when it’s offered, Giannis doesn’t sign the extension. Everybody in Wisconsin holds their breath, waiting for the other shoe to drop.
2025-26 schedule
Season opener: Oct. 22 vs. Washington
Over/under win total: 42.5
This team has Giannis Antetokounmpo on it, and plays in the Eastern Conference. As long as he remains mostly ambulatory, the Bucks should be comfortably over .500.
More season previews
East: Atlanta Hawks • Boston Celtics • Brooklyn Nets • Charlotte Hornets • Chicago Bulls • Cleveland Cavaliers • Detroit Pistons • Indiana Pacers • Miami Heat • Milwaukee Bucks • New York Knicks • Orlando Magic • Philadelphia 76ers • Toronto Raptors • Washington Wizards
West: Dallas Mavericks • Denver Nuggets • Golden State Warriors • Houston Rockets • Los Angeles Clippers • Los Angeles Lakers • Memphis Grizzlies • Minnesota Timberwolves • New Orleans Pelicans • Oklahoma City Thunder • Phoenix Suns • Portland Trail Blazers • Sacramento Kings • San Antonio Spurs • Utah Jazz
Category: General Sports
