NFL Power Rankings entering Week 6: Are the Buccaneers good, or just lucky?

AFC East:Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets

AFC North:Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South: Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans

AFC West: Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Commanders

NFC North: Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints | Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles Rams | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be in good position by the end of the season. Their fans might not be, when it comes to their heart health. 

Through five games the Buccaneers are 4-1 and seem like they might be one of those teams that is remembered for a ridiculous amount of close wins, like the 1980 Browns, 1991 Falcons, 2011 Broncos or 2024 Chiefs. 

Here is the time remaining for the game-winning score in the Bucs' four victories:

- 59 seconds (then the Falcons missed a field goal with two seconds left)

- 6 seconds

- 0 seconds left

- 0 seconds left

They're the first team in NFL history to win four games by three or fewer points in the first five games of a season, via NFL researcher Dante Koplowitz-Fleming. They're giving the fan base a collective cardiac arrest every seven days. 

A 4-1 start is great, especially in a weak NFC South, and they have collected some good wins, including three on the road already. Does that mean the Buccaneers are good, or lucky? 

On the positive side, the Buccaneers are winning without key players. They've seen missed time from tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans and running back Bucky Irving. Those are all fantastic players, and at some point Tampa Bay should have them all in the lineup together. And they will do so with a lot of banked wins and presumably a lead in the division. 

But no team can live off three-point wins with no time left over a full season. The Bucs' point differential of +3, or their DVOA ranking of 18th, or middling EPA per play metrics (eighth on offense but 21st on defense) says they'll need to play better to maintain anywhere near their current pace. Tampa Bay is a good team, and the clutch gene is important, but it isn't a 4-1 level team at this point. But it could be when health cooperates. 

The Bucs have been thrilling so far, like few teams in NFL history have been. The next question is if they can improve so they're not relying on last-minute miracles. Their fans might appreciate that. 

Here are the NFL Power Rankings after five weeks of the NFL season: 

32 (previous ranking 30): New York Jets (0-5)

There’s only one winless (or undefeated) team left. The Jets had no touchdowns through three quarters Sunday against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. It’s getting worse, not better.

31 (32): Tennessee Titans (1-4)

The Titans have to be thrilled with the win, but it was about as fluky as it gets. That’s OK, a win is a win for an 0-4 team that should have been trailing 28-6 in the fourth quarter in Week 5. The Titans will have to play better, but one win takes a lot of the pressure off them.

30 (29): Miami Dolphins (1-4)

The Dolphins have allowed 871 rushing yards. That’s 137 more than any other team. It’s almost three times as many as the Packers, who have allowed 310 (they have played one fewer game). And it’s not like there’s some easy fix to a run defense in October.

29 (27): New York Giants (1-4)

When you start a rookie quarterback, there will be games like Sunday. Jaxson Dart accounted for three of the team’s five turnovers. Still, he’s adding some much-needed playmaking to the offense. That’s important for the future. It’s not like the Giants were going to the playoffs anyway.

28 (24): Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)

The weird Week 1 result this season might be the Raiders winning 20-13 at New England. The Raiders looked absolutely awful Sunday as they lost 40-6 at Indianapolis. Geno Smith leads the NFL with nine interceptions already. This is a team that wanted to make progress right away, and that’s not happening.

27 (31): New Orleans Saints (1-4)

Before Sunday, Spencer Rattler had started 10 games and the Saints lost all 10. It had to feel good for him, and the team, to experience a win. It was the first win by a Saints quarterback drafted by the team since 1998, which is one of the wilder stats of the season.

26 (26): Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)

Jake Browning was pretty good two seasons ago when he got a chance. That has not carried over to this season. It was surprising that Zac Taylor never benched Browning on Sunday as he threw three interceptions. Taylor has to consider a switch at quarterback this week.

25 (28): Carolina Panthers (2-3)

The Panthers were in for a lot of grief this week when they fell behind 17-0 at home to the Dolphins. They pulled out a win, thanks in large part to Rico Dowdle’s 206 rushing yards. Maybe the offense can keep it going with a home matchup against the Cowboys next week.

24 (25): Cleveland Browns (1-4)

Dillon Gabriel couldn’t lead the Browns to a win, but he played very well considering some very tough circumstances. Given the multiple rookies that are making key contributions, the Browns should feel optimistic despite a 1-4 record.

23 (18): Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

Dropping a touchdown before crossing the goal line and fumbling an interception that turned into a Titans touchdown were the big plays in a shocking loss. But a Titans offense that had 120 yards through three quarters had drives of 80, 61 and 71 yards in the fourth quarter. That’s a defensive collapse.

22 (23): Dallas Cowboys (2-2-1)

Dak Prescott is playing very well. Prescott is also not winning MVP, as you might hear, unless the Cowboys at least make the playoffs. The only MVPs from non-playoff teams are Johnny Unitas in 1967 (the Colts went 11-1-2 and didn’t make it) and O.J. Simpson in 1973. Prescott won’t be the third.

21 (20): Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

Four of the Falcons’ next five games are against winning teams, with three against 4-1 teams (Bills, 49ers, Colts). If the Falcons are above .500 after that stretch, they could end up giving the Buccaneers a tough run in the NFC South.

20 (19): Chicago Bears (2-2)

D.J. Moore is third on the Bears in targets, behind Rome Odunze and Olamide Zaccheaus. That is why there is trade speculation surrounding Moore. But would a .500 Bears team want to trade one of its most talented veteran receivers?

19 (14): Baltimore Ravens (1-4)

It’s hard to rank the Ravens. They’ve been bad. The hole they’re digging might be too big to get out of. But many of their key players will be back, and when they are this is still a team with more than enough talent to be top 10 in the league.

18 (22): Houston Texans (2-3)

The Texans had two fortunate matchups, against a bad Titans team and a severely injured Ravens team. Two wins doesn’t mean they’re back, but it’s a start. The offense has looked much better. The next three games (at Seahawks, vs. 49ers, vs. Broncos) will tell the story.

17 (17): Minnesota Vikings (3-2)

Carson Wentz took some huge hits and handled adversity very well. He threw for 236 yards and a touchdown, with a passer rating of 102.1 against a good Browns defense in a last-minute win. It seems J.J. McCarthy will start when healthy, but Wentz will be on standby if McCarthy struggles again.

16 (21): New England Patriots (3-2)

Drake Maye had been playing quite well, and after Sunday’s performance in the upset over the Bills, everyone will start talking about him. That was his breakout game. The question is whether that win was a sign the Patriots might give a real scare to the Bills in the AFC East.

15 (15): Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

The Steelers’ next two games are against a Browns team that didn’t take its bye after traveling to London, and against a Bengals team that looks terrible without Joe Burrow. A 5-1 start, with the Ravens going to 1-5 if they lose to the Rams this week, seems likely.

14 (8): Seattle Seahawks (3-2) 

The Seahawks have blown two winnable games at home this season, in the opener against the 49ers and then Sunday against the Buccaneers. Sam Darnold continues to play quite well, but Seattle can’t keep dropping games it should win if it wants to win the NFC West.

13 (5): Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)

Omarion Hampton has an ankle injury that landed him on injured reserve. That’s a massive blow for a Chargers offense that already was shorthanded due to injuries. The season started with such promise, and it feels like it might slip away fast.

12 (16): Washington Commanders (3-2)

Rookie Bill Croskey-Merritt’s metrics had looked very good, but the team seemed hesitant to make him their featured back. After his outburst Sunday, with 150 total yards and two touchdowns, it seems like he’s ready to take on a bulk of the work at running back. That could be great for Washington’s offense.

11 (4): Los Angeles Rams (3-2)

There’s no way around it: That was a terrible loss for the Rams last week. It could end up being the difference in winning a division title. The good news is Matthew Stafford, who threw for 389 yards, is looking as good as ever.

10 (7): Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)

Remember when the Chiefs won every close game? They're 0-3 in one-score games this season. Regression is real. Losing to the Jaguars on the road isn't a bad outcome, but all of a sudden the Chiefs are under .500 after five weeks despite Patrick Mahomes playing some great ball.

9 (13): San Francisco 49ers (4-1)

The idea that Mac Jones is a threat to Brock Purdy is ridiculous. Jones played well. The 49ers just gave Purdy a five-year, $265 million contract; they aren’t benching him because Jones had a couple of good games. But you’ll hear more about it if Purdy struggles.

8 (12): Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)

The Jaguars trailed 14-0 early and 28-24 with 1:45 to go against the reigning AFC champion Chiefs. It's not a game that franchise is used to winning. It's not a situation Trevor Lawrence has thrived in that often either. Maybe the Jaguars and Lawrence slayed some demons with the win.

7 (6): Green Bay Packers (2-1-1)

The Packers didn’t look great but check out the upcoming schedule: vs. Bengals, at Cardinals, at Steelers, vs. Panthers, vs. Eagles, at Giants. Other than the Eagles and maybe the Steelers, those should all be wins. If it’s not at least a 4-2 stretch, then worry about the Packers.

6 (11): Denver Broncos (3-2)

Imagine the conversation about the Broncos if they won one or both road games against the Colts or Chargers, both of which they lost with no time on the clock. Their profile will grow after they became just the second team to beat the Eagles since September of 2024.

5 (10): Indianapolis Colts (4-1)

The Colts are a few mental mistakes against the Rams from being the NFL’s only 5-0 team. Maybe they should be ranked higher. Nothing in their profile indicates this great start has been a fluke. Perhaps the relatively low ranking is skepticism on Daniel Jones maintaining this level all season.

4 (9): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1)

Baker Mayfield has 1,281 yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception, with four game-winning drives already for a team that is tied for the best record in the NFL. Is everyone ready for a “Mayfield for MVP” conversation? Because it’s coming.

3 (2): Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)

And still, we wait for the 2025 Eagles to play a complete game. It looked good vs. Denver before they fell apart in the fourth quarter. A surprisingly pass-heavy offensive approach that ignored Saquon Barkley didn’t work, and the defense let up in the fourth quarter too. Now there’s real strife.

2 (1): Buffalo Bills (4-1)

The Bills have played at less than their best for long stretches of four games. They came back against the Ravens and held off the Dolphins and Saints, but finally lost to the Patriots. They’re a good team. But they need to find more consistency.

1 (3): Detroit Lions (4-1)

Every team has a loss now. And while the Lions’ loss in Week 1 wasn’t good, the last four weeks have been excellent. They’ve scored 52, 38, 34 and 37 points in the four wins. Given the Lions’ recent track record and how they’ve rebounded since Week 1, they deserve their turn at No. 1 this season.