Breaking down the biggest question, best- and worst-case scenarios, and win projection for the Heat in 2025-26.
The 2025-26 NBA season is here! We're rolling out our previews — examining the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and win projections for all 30 franchises — from the still-rebuilding teams to the true title contenders.
MIAMI HEAT
2024-25 finish
Record: 37-45 (10th in East, lost to the Cavaliers in the first round)
Offensive rating: 112.4 (21st)
Defensive rating: 112 (9th)
Offseason moves
Additions: Norman Powell, Kasparas Jakučionis
Subtractions: Duncan Robinson, Kyle Anderson, Kevin Love
The Big Question: Is the Heat roster worthy of a superstar?
Following two trips to the NBA Finals this decade, the Heat parted ways with Jimmy Butler, their latest star in Miami. He soured on the situation, which was a devolving roster that could no longer compete for a championship. They were largely in the mix because of Butler, and his departure marks a new era.
Three-time All-Star center Bam Adebayo remains, as does one-time All-Star guard Tyler Herro, though he could miss the first several months of the season after undergoing offseason ankle surgery. The Heat acquired Andrew Wiggins in the Butler trade, and they added Norman Powell in a steal of a deal over the summer. There are still Terry Rozier, Nikola Jović, Jaime Jaquez, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware and others.
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This team has talent to compete, especially in the watered-down Eastern Conference. Erik Spoelstra, arguably the best coach in the game, is on its bench, and he will ensure the Heat maximize that talent.
But to what end? This is not a team that can challenge for the title. Miami made the play-in tournament last season for a third straight year, requiring a pair of victories to emerge from it. Powell nearly made the All-Star roster last season, but he is far from the type of player who can make a mediocre team great.
However, Powell should add considerable scoring punch to a team that ranked below-average on offense last season, and Adebayo has been the backbone of a top-10 defense for five years running. Combine the two, and the Heat should be back in the middle of the pack, getting as much from a roster as they can.
The questions are, then: Are they a superstar away? Who is that player? And how do they get him?
Few teams have the luxury of building from the middle, but Miami does, because it can bank on the fact that another superstar will want to play in South Beach. When, exactly, we do not know. Superstars — or at least the kind that can significantly sway a team's title odds — are not on the move as often as they were last decade, other than Luka Dončić, whose availability was not known to the entirety of the league.
Who, then? Giannis Antetokounmpo? The Heat did not even have enough to pry Damian Lillard away from the Portland Trail Blazers in 2023, and they have not developed many assets since. Herro and draft picks were not going to get the Lillard deal done, nor will it be enough to get Antetokounmpo or his ilk.
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It feels like the Heat are more than a superstar away. It feels like they need more for this team to prove itself as one worthy of a superstar. It required superhuman efforts from Butler to reach the Finals with a similar roster, and they have done nothing but regress since. That regression needs to shift to progress.
Miami must get something beyond promise from recent first-round picks Kasparas Jakučionis, Ware, Jaquez and Jović. Not only would that help the current roster in the short term, but it will restock the asset chest for whenever the Heat go big-game hunting again. And they will go big-game hunting.
Best-case scenario
Adebayo, Herro and Powell form the foundation of a competitive team. Maybe not one that can contend. But competitiveness is key, and they always seem to have it in Miami. That competitiveness is contagious, and the Heat enjoy the fruits in the form of progression from more than one of Jakučionis, Ware, Jaquez and Jović. They are more than just prospects. They are pieces that can both help the Heat win games in the near-term and sweeten any pot for whenever the next superstar becomes available.
If everything falls apart
The defense craters in the long-term absence of Butler. The offense is no better, even in the presence of Powell, and the Heat are just meh. That meh extends to the younger generation, and there is little more than mediocrity from Jakučionis, Ware, Jaquez and Jović. Maybe they make another play-in tournament. Maybe they get a lottery pick out of the deal. But it's not a group that inspires a superstar to say, "Hey, I've been wanting to play in Miami, and now's the time. I could win a championship with that roster."
2025-26 schedule
Season opener: Oct. 22 at Orlando
Over/under win total: 37.5
The addition of Powell is an interesting wrinkle to a team that should stay competitive on a night-to-night basis in this Eastern Conference, and Spoelstra's teams are always better than we think. Take the over.
More season previews
East: Atlanta Hawks • Boston Celtics • Brooklyn Nets • Charlotte Hornets • Chicago Bulls • Cleveland Cavaliers • Detroit Pistons • Indiana Pacers • Miami Heat • Milwaukee Bucks • New York Knicks • Orlando Magic • Philadelphia 76ers • Toronto Raptors • Washington Wizards
West: Dallas Mavericks • Denver Nuggets • Golden State Warriors • Houston Rockets • Los Angeles Clippers • Los Angeles Lakers • Memphis Grizzlies • Minnesota Timberwolves • New Orleans Pelicans • Oklahoma City Thunder • Phoenix Suns • Portland Trail Blazers • Sacramento Kings • San Antonio Spurs • Utah Jazz
Category: General Sports
