Matt Russell runs through NFL survivor contest Week 6 strategy and a few games to target.
There are certain words that are only used in one, singular football context.
You can “stave” off elimination, but nothing else. Defenses are the only thing that can be “vaunted,” and almost exclusively sarcastically. When an offensive tackle is injured, a starting guard “kicks out” to tackle to replace him, but a centerfielder’s never kicked out to right as part of a late-game defensive change.
The only time “carnage” is used in sports is when a bunch of upsets strike in the NFL in one week, and Survivor contest entries go by the wayside at an alarming rate.
In Circa’s NFL Survivor contest, 7,432 were knocked out by a trio of losers alone. Of our top-five recommendations listed last week, the Rams (No. 5) and Bills (No. 2) went down in earnest fashion, finding themselves in a tough game right from the opening kickoff, as good teams in the role of underdogs were underestimated.
Then there was Arizona — our top choice. As predicted, the Cardinals were the much-better team, scoring touchdowns on their first two possessions, eventually taking a 21-6 lead against the woeful and seemingly-disinterested Titans.
There was so little feeling of impending doom, that when Kyler Murray took a surprise red-zone snap (that should have been whistled dead as a false start with the right guard not in any way set) directly to the face, we all kind of chuckled, knowing the Titans would not only do nothing with the gift turnover (they didn’t), but they’d likely still do an assortment of things that bad teams do, like:
Give up a long play for a touchdown
Miss a kick
Commit a back-breaking turnover
Sure enough, in the fourth quarter, they did do all of those things.
However, Emari Demercado turned a 72-yard touchdown run into a touchback when he did the super-tired move of letting the ball go at the goal line (which never seemed definitive in the way we would hope an overturned call would be).
After the ensuing rare Titans’ touchdown drive, Joey Slye missed the extra point.
Then, down nine, Cam Ward threw what should have been essentially a game-clinching interception, only to see Arizona’s Dadrion Taylor-Demerson fumble without being contacted, and a conclave of Cardinals clunked about the ball, sending it into the end zone, only to see the smallest (and oldest) player on the field, Tyler Lockett, to fall on it for an impossible Titans touchdown.
What happened next was the most predictable part. The Cardinals ran it three times into the line, punted and the Titans — full of belief for the first time all season — drove down the field for the winning field goal.
Carnage, indeed.
Who remains?
For the first five weeks, options were abundant, and there were infinite potential paths. Contest sizes can vary, from the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the variety of entrants you compete against in a Yahoo Football Survival League, but no matter the size, the percentage of original entrants remaining is likely the same.
Week 5’s carnage simplifies things a little bit going forward, as those who survived likely have done so because they used either the Colts or Lions in Week 5.
Going forward, we’ll put together a plan for both “Colts people” and “Lions people” in an effort to go the distance. While that’s pretty straight forward, it’s difficult to know what teams have been used prior to Week 5, so we’ll provide a trio of options for each path.
Week 6 money lines
How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the money line, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).
*We’ve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold
Market power ratings
It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use it again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. It’s an unnerving thought.
Here’s a list of the betting market’s current top-18 teams and an estimation of their value to the point spread:
Chiefs: 18.8
Packers: 18.6
Lions: 18.6
Bills: 18.4
Rams:18.1
Eagles: 17.8
Colts: 16.9
Chargers: 16.5
Buccaneers: 16.4
Broncos: 16.1
Commanders: 16.1
Seahawks: 15.3
49ers: 15.3
Jaguars 14.9
Texans: 14.7
Patriots: 13.9
Vikings: 13.7
Steelers: 13.2
Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in Week 6 is a lot different than doing so at some point in December.
Week 6’s top choices
The “Colts people” path
1. Packers (89.3%) over Bengals
For many, the infuriating part of getting knocked out in Week 5 was how obvious Week 6’s pick was going to be. With the Packers favored by a full touchdown more than anyone else, and almost 12% more likely to win than anyone else, Green Bay is as tempting an “obvious” pick as there’s been all season long.
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
Week 9 vs. Panthers (GB -14)
Week 14 vs. Bears (GB -7.5)
Those who haven’t taken the Lions yet could at least think about using Detroit in Week 14 — at home on a Thursday night against the Cowboys — which means there’s percentage points more value in “settling” with the Packers this week.
2. Broncos (77.2%) over Jets
Unlike the Rams and Eagles, the Broncos are the “road” team in name only, as they will be taking on the winless Jets in England on Sunday morning. The tricky part is that roughly 55% of all entrants have used the Broncos, either in Week 1 against the Titans, or Week 4 against the spayed Bengals. So, they may not be an option.
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
Week 7 vs. Giants (DEN -8.5)
Week 10 vs. Raiders (DEN -7.5)
With 55% having already used the Broncos, for every week that you don’t use Denver and others do, they become more valuable later on, to differentiate your path.
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3. Steelers (69.0%) over Browns
It wouldn’t be my preference with the Packers sitting there as something of a walkover option, but with Baltimore falling out of the top 18, the Steelers at least qualify as a usable team. This might the biggest favorite they’ll be all year — hosting a rookie quarterback, on a team that’s opted out of the post-London bye week.
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
Week 11 vs. Bengals (PIT -7.5)
Week 15 vs. Dolphins (PIT -5.5)
We’ll see where the Bengals are at come Week 11 now that they’ve acquired Joe Flacco in an attempt to save the season, but between having these options later, while waiting for the Ravens to get healthy and potentially bumping Pittsburgh out of the top-18 teams needed to advance, the Steelers are only worth using this week if you really want to get spicy.
“Lions people”
1. Packers (89.3%) over Bengals
Both those who survived with the Colts and Lions last week should take the Packers this week, and by Circa’s “availability matrix” ahead of Week 5, just 0.6% of entrants had already used Green Bay.
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
Week 9 vs. Panthers (GB -14)
Week 14 vs. Bears (GB -7.5)
There’s nothing wrong with saving the Packers for Week 9, but the Rams are sitting there with a matchup against the Saints.
2. Colts (73.2%) over Cardinals
Having used the Lions, we know you haven’t used the Colts — the next most-likely home team to win this week. Of course, that also means you’d be joining the stream of entries that you’ve already differentiated yourself from, which is sub-optimal so soon after that fork in the river.
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
Week 8 vs. Titans (IND -11.5)
For those of us who might have been knocked out with the Cardinals, the Colts were never in real consideration last week because of how attractive they are in Week 8.
The Ravens have the Bears in Week 8, but who knows what the status of Baltimore’s MASH unit will be then. The Eagles could be the play against the Giants, as could be the Bills on the road at Carolina.
3. Broncos (77.2%) over Jets
Neutral site games are inherently weird, but so are Thursday nighters, which is why we’ll steer clear of the Eagles' visit to the Giants this week. Meanwhile, it’s tough to wrap our heads around the idea of the Rams being this big of a favorite at Baltimore, just one week after losing at home to another team beset by injuries.
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
Week 7 vs. Giants (DEN -8.5)
Week 10 vs. Raiders (DEN -7.5)
The Broncos’ Week 10 game with the Raiders is a Thursday night game, but that’s a particularly tricky week since the Saints play the Panthers, and the Browns play the Jets. Four teams that Survivor players pick on all playing each other is just another reason why the Packers are the play this week.
If they fall apart in the fourth quarter and get stunned by an inferior team, we’ll throw our hands in the air and give up. Convenient, since we’ll be really out of the contest anyway.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
Category: General Sports
