Italy’s victory over Estonia has kept a small World Cup hope alive: Gattuso’s Azzurri are now 6 points behind Norway, but with one game less and 9 points still up for grabs.Watch the entire Serie ...
Italy’s victory over Estonia has kept a small World Cup hope alive: Gattuso’s Azzurri are now 6 points behind Norway, but with one game less and 9 points still up for grabs.
The dream of qualifying directly — avoiding the dreaded playoffs — hasn’t vanished yet, even if it will take a true sporting miracle.
⚽ The tight race: Italy versus Haaland & co.
On Saturday, October 11, both Italy and Norway secured victories: the Scandinavians crushed Israel 5-0, while Gattuso’s men beat Estonia 3-1 in Tallinn.
The standings show Norway in first place with a 6-point lead, but with one more match played. Basically, the Azzurri must win all their remaining games (Israel, Moldova, and Norway) to keep the miracle alive.
📊 Level on points? The risk of goal difference
If Italy and Norway finish the group stage level on points, the first tiebreaker will be goal difference, which currently heavily favors the Scandinavians:
- Norway: +26
- Italy: +6
This means that even if they win the head-to-head clash at San Siro, the Azzurri would need big wins to close the gap. Otherwise, it’s straight to the playoffs, the most likely scenario.
🙏 A miracle called Estonia
The only way to secure direct qualification? Hope that Norway slips up against Estonia.
If the Estonians manage to snatch even a draw in Oslo, Italy — by beating Israel and Moldova — would go into the head-to-head match on November 16 with a chance to overtake Haaland and company. A remote possibility, but not impossible: football history is full of surprises.
💥 The final battle at San Siro
If the right combinations fall into place, Italy-Norway on November 16 would become a real early final. At stake is not only first place in the group, but a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup.
San Siro is set to become a cauldron, with Donnarumma, Barella, and Chiesa called upon to write a new page in history.
🧩 Plan B: the dreaded playoffs
In the more realistic scenario, Italy will have to face the playoffs in March 2026, along with the group runners-up and the best excluded Nations League teams. Thanks to their FIFA ranking, the Azzurri would play the semifinal at home, but the final would be decided by a draw.
Among the possible opponents are: 🇬🇧 Scotland, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇧🇦 Bosnia, 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇮🇪 Northern Ireland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇽🇰 Kosovo
This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.
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Category: General Sports
