Texas A&M vs Arkansas Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today — College Football Week 8

These programs may be on divergent paths, but there's no shortage of intrigue in this matchup.

The Aggies are focused on boosting their College Football Playoff resume while adding credibility to the steady rise of the Mike Elko era.

Across the field, interim head coach Bobby Petrino is out to make a statement — for both his team and his candidacy for the full-time job in Fayetteville.

Here’s how I see it playing out in my Texas A&M vs. Arkansas predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 18.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas prediction

Texas A&M vs Arkansas best bet: Marcel Reed anytime touchdown (-160 at FanDuel)

While I don’t recommend making a habit of betting a -160 in college football, the value here is too strong to pass up. My fair projection was closer to -205, which makes this my best bet of the week and my first two-unit play of the season.

Arkansas’ defense has been a glaring weakness all year, especially against the run. The Razorbacks rank 120th nationally in EPA allowed per rush, and the deeper metrics only confirm what the film shows: this is a group that gets bullied at the line of scrimmage and struggles to create disruption.

Their havoc rate sits in the bottom third of the country, signaling a lack of playmaking and penetration up front.

Meanwhile, Marcel Reed’s designed run usage has climbed steadily over the past few weeks, particularly in redzone situations. The combination of his rushing volume, Arkansas’ inability to contain the ground game, and their overall lack of physicality gives this play a clear edge.

When you combine those elements, it’s difficult to justify this number being as short as it is, and that’s why I’m comfortable laying the price. He will find paydirt.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas same-game parlay

We’re getting a strong non-correlated parlay boost here as I looked to account for the pregame scheme edge that I believe Arkansas will have. The Hogs gave Tennessee a real scare last week, and as mentioned earlier, I think they can find some early offensive success in this matchup.

That led me to take a shot on the first quarter moneyline. I paired it with the Over since the reasons for liking points are clear and supported by both matchup data and my projections. 

Texas A&M vs Arkansas SGP

• Marcel Reed anytime touchdown
• Over 61.5
  
• Arkansas 1Q ML

Our deep-ball SGP: Aggies Seize Command

While I think Arkansas gets off to a strong start, after that, I expect Texas A&M to take control which means that the Hogs will be chasing points. Naturally that points to throwing more and I suspect this number for Taylen Green is very achievable because of that. 

I’ll also use this opportunity to fade the Arkansas defense once again and take Mario Craver to go over his receiving total. He’s surpassed this number in half of his games this season with most of those teams having better defensive numbers. 

Texas A&M vs Arkansas SGP

• Marcel Reed anytime touchdown
• Over 61.5
  
• Arkansas 1Q 
  
• Taylen Green Over 240.5 passing yards
  
• Mario Craver Over 84.5 receiving yards

Texas A&M vs Arkansas game predictions

Texas A&M vs Arkansas moneyline prediction

Texas A&M. I have enough belief in Petrino’s offensive scheme that this came can produce some uncomfortable moments for the Aggies. However, the Hogs won’t be able to get any stops and that’s the difference.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas spread prediction

Texas A&M. I’m almost identical with the market on the number so no result would surprise me but again, this Arkansas defense has really struggled this season.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas Over/Under prediction

Over. I like points with one defense that has struggled all season going up against an offense that has limited film on what a full Petrino offense looks like.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas odds

• Spread: Texas A&M -7.5 (-115) | Arkansas +7.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Texas A&M -310 | Arkansas +250
• Over/Under: Over 61.5 (-105) | Under 61.5 (-115)

Texas A&M vs Arkansas trend to know

Texas A&M has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs Arkansas.

How to watch Texas A&M vs Arkansas

Texas A&M vs Arkansas latest injuries

Texas A&M vs Arkansas weather

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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here