It's deja vu for Bell and another NASCAR final four dogfight

The math could not be any simpler for the six drivers still racing for the three remaining spots in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.

Chase Briscoe Adv.
Denny Hamlin Adv
Christopher Bell +37
Kyle Larson +38
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William Byron -36
Joey Logano -38
Ryan Blaney -47
Chase Elliott -62

William Byron, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott will each go to Martinsville Speedway next weekend needing nothing short of a victory to reach Phoenix still championship eligible.

At face value, it looks like Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson are safe but they are going to be racing each other at the Virginia half mile to avoid the worst-case scenario. That scenario would be one of the four must-win drivers doing just that, winning, and moving above the cutline.

That would leave whichever of Bell or Larson that scores the fewest points on the outside looking in.

“It’s déjà vu, buddy,” Bell told Motorsport.com with a nervous laugh after the race at Talladega.

You see, this is potential re-run for Bell, who was denied a spot in the final four last year due to a controversial tiebreaker with Byron -- so he knows he needs to outscore Larson just in case one of the bottom four win.

“You have to go in there assuming one of them are going to win the race,” Bell said. “They’re all very good there and have really good teams. Kyle or myself could win it. That is the most likely list of drivers who are going to get it done there.

“I expect a playoff driver to win the race and I expect Larson and myself to race for that final spot.”

Joe Gibbs Racing competition director Chris Gabehart has been on every side of this dynamic during his decade as a crew chief. He has needed to win and come short. He has needed to defend his spot and come short. He has held on and advanced. 

It is a emotionally taxing experience. 

“Well, it’s a lot of stress for sure,” Gabehart told Motorsport.com. “But our company ran really strong at Martinsville in the spring and I feel like we should be able to bring even better cars here in the fall.

“I like our chances on speed and if one of those guys below the cut do win, and it’s Larson and Bell fighting it out like they have in so many cars, and so many times before, and I respect Larson and the Hendrick 5 team, but this is Christopher Bell we are talking about and I’ll take my chances.”

Kyle Larson, crew chief explain running out of fuel in battle for Talladega win

Meanwhile, Kyle Larson could have found himself 20 more points clear of Bell but ran out of gas on the final lap and fell from a potential top five while racing for the win to 26th. Given the math, that could prove to be the difference racing for the championship.

Now, despite the way it was looking with a quarter of the race remaining, they are virtually tied and Larson is going to have to outpoint Bell unless one of the bottom four are kept out of Victory Lane.

His crew chief, Cliff Daniels, like everyone else is expecting a playoff driver to win, meaning he needs to find a way to outscore Bell and crew chief Adam Stevens.

“It’s mathematically not a must-win but we are certainly going to go in with that belief,” Daniels said. “You’d much rather go in there feeling like you need to control your destiny by winning than having the math play out however it shakes up.”

As a reminder, both race stages pay up to 10 points throughout the top 10 before the final results add even more points.

“It’s unfortunate,” Larson said. “I’d rather have a bigger points cushion heading into next weekend but we’ll regroup and focus on Martinsville.”

Absolute must-wins 

Watch: Byron: 'Just the way it goes' after tri-oval spin on final lap

The math is simplest for Byron, Logano, Blaney and Elliott.

Byron had a chance to win at Talladega but was spun out on the final lap by Carson Hocevar, not that he was entirely in position to win once Larson ran out of gas and stalled their line.

But still, both Hendrick cars were that close to making this a moot point for their respective cars but now face a nerve-racking weekend in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

"We got linked together really good in 1 and 2 and the bottom, I got clear for a minute and just couldn't get linked for whatever reason off (Turn) 4," Byron said. "Those guys were just pushing really hard on the outside lane and just pushed past us.

"I don't know. The pushes weren't timed up perfectly and we lost control of the bottom lane. The outside lane had more energy and then (Larson) ran out of gas, and that didn't help us any."

Now, Martinsville.

"Looks like we have to win," he said. "Looks like all the guys below the cut have to win so we just need to go there and do that. We've had two strong weeks but no results."

He is the regular season champion but crashed out last week at Las Vegas when Ty Dillon slowed suddenly in front of him and then got spun coming to the finish line on Sunday at Talladega.

Team Penske’s Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, the past three champions, controlled the race for much of the day knowing that they each needed win but now there’s only room for one of them next weekend at Martinsville.

“It’s pretty apparent the second we lost control of the race,” Logano said. “I’m only driving one car, so I couldn’t really control the race. The car behind me was saving gas, that didn’t help us and killed the whole bottom lane. Cars were pulling in front of us and we were just getting demoted from the first two cars in line to the back of the line.”

Next week?

“Martinsville’s not a bad track for us,” Logano said. “We just have a simple point of view at this point, it’s all or nothing. Stage points aren’t going to matter. Nothing else is going to matter but winning.”

His teammate echoed the same sentiment.

“Not the finish we wanted,” Blaney said. “We didn’t do what we needed to do and we didn’t get help when we needed it. Now we have to go win next week.”

And Chase Elliott is in the same boat after crashing before the end of the first stage.

“All eyes on Martinsville and we’ve been good there before.”

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