On the heels of a new champ being crowned, Brandon Royval and Manel Kape can make a statement in the UFC flyweight division to end the year.
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 73's main event between Brandon Royval and Manel Kape.
Brandon Royval UFC on ESPN 73 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 17-8 MMA, 7-4 UFC
- Height: 5'9" Age: 33 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68"
- Last fight:Decision loss to Joshua Van (June 28, 2025)
- Camp: High Altitude Martial Arts (Denver, Co.)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- LFA flyweight title
- Amateur MMA accolades
- Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- 4 KO victories
- 9 submission wins
- 10 first-round finishes
- KO power
- Aggressive pace and pressure
- Active feints and footwork
- Diverse shot selection
- ^ Coming forward or off the counter
- Dangerous knees and elbows
- Active and urgent scrambler
- ^ Good granby rolls
- Excellent transitional grappler
- ^ Opportunistic submission threat
- +/- 4-2 inside the UFC Apex
Manel Kape UFC on ESPN 73 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 21-7 MMA, 6-3 UFC
- Height: 5'5" Age: 32 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68"
- Last fight:TKO win over Asu Almabayev (March 1, 2025)
- Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- RIZIN bantamweight title
- Regional MMA titles
- Jiu-jitsu black belt
- 13 KO victories
- 5 submission wins
- 9 first-round finishes
- KO power
- Solid feints and footwork
- Dynamic striker
- ^ Works well off the counter
- Dangerous knees
- Good bodywork
- Serviceable wrestling
- ^ Defensively and offensively
- Solid scrambler
- +/- 3-2 in the UFC Apex
- +/- 1-1 against UFC-level southpaws
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape point of interest: Flyweight fisticuffs
The main event of the final card of the ESPN era is a flyweight contender's bout at the Apex between Brandon Royval and Manel Kape.
Royval, who is more of a free-flowing stylist, is at his best when seizing the striking initiative through his dynamic southpaw offerings.
A former Factory-X Muay Thai fighter with his own flair, Royval utilizes sporadic feints and footwork that help set up and pull out offense. And once Royval gets a beat to his liking, he quickly responds with solid combinations that are often punctuated by dangerous kicks and knees.
When Royval’s feeling in stride, he will incorporate slick spinning assaults, either coming forward or off the counter. That said, the former title challenger is not beyond being countered for his aggression.
Enter Kape.
Despite being a dynamic showman with a solid arsenal, Manel Kape prefers to do most of his damage off the counter.
Fluent in both stances, Kape keeps a smoothness to his shifts and lateral movements that open up potent offensive opportunities. From counter crosses to counter hooks, Kape keeps a series of short shots that he's ready to unload on a hair-trigger.
When Kape is feeling in stride, he shows little issue with digging to the body or mixing in the occasional knee up the center to intercept level changes. Kape’s proprioception and speed allow him to make accurate reads in the pocket, but the former RIZIN champ can also find himself on the wrong side of offense due to his sometimes lackadaisical nature.
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering the chaos that’s being forecast on the feet, no one should be shocked if this fight hits the floor.
Neither fighter is a particularly huge wrestling threat on paper, but Royval is more known for his submissions.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Royval is an opportunistic submission threat who isn’t afraid to play in the proverbial dirt.
Whether he’s operating off his back or seeking out fight-ending submissions in scrambles, Royval is constantly looking to capitalize in the chaos. That said, Royval does have the propensity to allow for back exposure in said scrambles given his love for tactics like granby rolls.
Royval did show improved awareness for back exposure in his title attempt against the criminally disrespected Alexandre Pantoja, but the American still surrendered a ton of control time to both Pantoja and Tatsuro Taira in his last five-round affairs.
Thankfully for Kape, he's no stranger to the wrestling and scrambling dynamics of a fight.
Even when Kape was coming up in the rings of RIZIN, he was having to both defend and finish takedowns in sub-optimal positions on the regular. Kape has always had an impressive reactive sprawl in open space, but the Angola native has traditionally run into trouble when going for submissions rather than defending the position.
Kape has solid and smooth transitions when operating from topside, but he can get lackadaisical or complacent at times when working from his back (which can be maddening for his supporters considering how hard Kape is capable of scrambling).
Although Kape has come a long way since the submission losses earlier in his career, the jiu-jitsu black belt will need to respect the skills of Royval in all positions.
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the slightly younger fighter, listing Kape -310 and Royval +230 via FanDuel.
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape prediction, pick
Despite not disagreeing with who if favored, this line is getting too wide for my liking.
As we were reminded in multiple ways at UFC 323 last weekend, wide spreads in lighter-weight fights that feature high-level fighters are a dangerous game to play.
Whether we’re talking about freak injuries and suspect fighter health or bad stylistic matchups altogether, inflated money lines should give us all some pause in these spots.
Should Royval’s durability hold up over the course of this fight, then no one should be shocked if the American underdog is able to pour on his patented high-volume attack down the stretch in order to squeeze out a victory.
The potential problem, however, is that high-volume offense is a potent two-way street when we’re talking about a counterpuncher like Kape. Say what you will about the starring contests Kape has been prone to in the past, but Royval’s aggression could arguably bring out the best in “Starboy” this Saturday.
In addition, I also noticed that Royval’s volume, particularly in his last fight, has been much more rote and lacking in the more useful tools of kicks and knees (that could come in handy against someone with the stature of Kape). If Royval and his new team have not appropriately addressed this, then the 33-year-old flyweight could be inadvertently feeding Kape some very digestible information.
I believe that the smaller octagon favors a fighter like Royval on paper, but said advantages could all be null and void if Kape comes in with a good gameplan that focuses on getting his counterpart on his backfoot via solid pressure and cage-cutting. And considering that Kape is with the perfect coach (Eric Nicksick) for that sort of prep, then I’ll back the former RIZIN champ to continue his current positive run since switching camps to Xtreme Couture MMA in Las Vegas.
Admitted bias for Kape’s camp and corner aside, I also have a hard time backing Royval given my canary in a coal mine theory regarding long and lanky fighters being more prone to freak injuries in the lighter weight classes (e.g. Royval opposite Brandon Moreno or Sean O’Malley in some of his early fights). Moreover, massive weight cuts from fighters in these categories can also lead to other things like gas tank or durability and chin issues, as I suspect that the latter has been quietly creeping in on Royval for some time now.
It’s a much riskier pick than the odds are giving credit for, but I’ll officially bank on Kape’s skill and speed to score him a knockout along the fenceline by the end of Round 3.
Prediction: Kape inside the distance
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape start time, how to watch
As the main event, Royval and Kape are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The fight airs on ESPN2 and streams on ESPN+.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape prediction, expert pick: UFC on ESPN 73
Category: General Sports
