Scoring metrics revealing between Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots

Before I get going with my thing, please make a detour to Buffalo Rumblings reader garsimeon’s post on The Feed for a very in depth breakdown on opponent adjusted metrics. Consider my article here the 101 level on the topic with gar’s the PhD version.

The New England Patriots have been on a roll, currently sitting two games ahead of the Buffalo Bills. What’s been the secret to the Patriots’ success this season? Most metrics have New England rated very highly. Critics suggest a weak schedule. Let’s take the most important metric there is (the score) and see how the Patriots have done adjusted for their opponent averages.

New England Patriots adjusted by opponent

As you might have expected, here’s a table of data.

These are pretty straightforward so I’ll explain a little and then pick out some fun facts. The first three columns compare what the Patriots scored against each of their opponents, followed by the average score that opponent allows and then the difference. You want to be on the positive side of this metric — for example the 19.2 points above what the Carolina Panthers typically allow is much nicer than the -12.5 against the Las Vegas Raiders.

The next three columns are the same deal, but in the other direction. Here, though, negative is good for the difference, as it’s the amount the Patriots’ defense held that opponent under their usual. Now let’s dissect a bit.

New England’s opponents allow 25.3 points per game, which is 2.2 more than the league average of 23.1 points per game allowed. This means that on average the defenses the Patriots have faced have been weaker than the mean. Despite that, the Patriots still are outperforming expectations by putting up 1.7 points more than what their opponents collectively allow.

It’s a similar story on defense. The same average of 23.1 points scored would apply for the league measure of offenses. The Patriots’ opponents are weak in this regard too, averaging 2.7 points less per game than the league average. But also like we saw on the other side of things, the Pats are nearly two points better than even this expectation.

In summary, both sides of the argument are correct. The Patriots have 100% faced a relatively weak field, but they’ve also played well even with that context. You know we’re not quite done yet.

The Buffalo Bills

Here’s the same table, but now it’s the Bills and their opponents.

The Bills’ opponents have allowed 23.3 points per game — just 0.2 points per game worse than league average, or pretty much exactly average. In a full season, when you run these kinds of analytics, most teams’ opponent averages wind up around league average, so this is no surprise.

What is also not too terribly shocking for Josh Allen fans is that the Bills are scoring 5.6 points more than what would be expected based on their opponents’ adjust defenses. That’s a huge jump.

The other side is a mixed bag. Buffalo’s opponents score 22.0 points on average, or 1.1 points less than league average. That’s quite a bit closer to league average than the Patriots’ opponents, but still a bit on the weaker side of things. The Bills’ defense is allowing half a point more than what would be expected based on their opponents. That’s not a terrible defense by any stretch of the imagination, but the most optimistic argument is the Bills have an average defense.

The Final Straw

This is a very simplified version of adjusted metrics but, if you’re buying what they’re selling, it points to a Patriots team winning against a weak field. The Bills on the other hand are in general tearing apart average defenses and having a “meh” experience against a slightly weak slew of opposing offenses. While that paints a favorable picture of Buffalo, there’s one thing still hanging over our heads.

That two-game lead the Patriots have. There’s a phrase used a lot in football about “beating the teams you’re supposed to.” The Patriots are essentially doing that week in and week out. The Bills have stumbled a few times in that regard, and that’s the big difference.

Or as Elvis would put it, it’s all about TCB. The Bills have a shot to Take Care of Business this weekend and put on display what the metrics suggest. They need to avoid some volatility that’s sunk them, including against New England earlier in the year.