Mariners lose Jorge Polanco to Mets on two-year deal

After signing Josh Naylor to a five-year deal to open the off-season with a splash, the Mariners made it clear their next priority was bringing back Jorge Polanco. However, the New York Mets foiled those plans today, inking Polanco to a two-year deal worth $40M.

It’s a big pay raise for Polanco, who made about half that over the entirety of his two years in Seattle. Both ESPN’s experts and FanGraphs’ crowd-sourced numbers projected Polanco at a two-year deal just under $30M. But the Mets, who just lost their longtime first baseman Pete Alonso to Baltimore, opted to be aggressive, beating out Seattle’s best final offer, according to those with knowledge of the negotiations. Polanco will play first base for the first time in his career (unfun fact: his lone professional appearance at first base was in the game last season in San Francisco where Victor Robles was injured; he stood there for one pitch as Wilmer Flores hit a walk-off single).

With a run-it-back reunion with Polanco now off the table, the Mariners will have to shift their strategy to address holes on their roster. They retain in-house options at second base in Cole Young and Ryan Bliss, who is tracking towards a spring training return. Behind them are prospects Colt Emerson and Michael Arroyo. At third base is Ben Williamson, where Emerson could also play.

Beyond Polanco, the free-agent infield market is thin (unless you’re particularly high on Willi Castro), heightening the chance the Mariners would address this need via trade: Brendan Donovan, Ketel Marte, and Brandon Lowe have all emerged as names for consideration, although each comes with a caveat. Donovan, a cost-controlled infielder, will require a hefty prospect price; Marte carries a large contract obligation as well as otherbaggage; Lowe doesn’t replace Polanco’s solid plate discipline on a team that has a tendency to strike out.

If the Mariners do want to remain engaged in the free agent market, they could look at a different reunion with a former Mariner, bringing back Eugenio Suárez, who could also play a hybrid infielder/DH role like Polanco did. Suárez doesn’t solve the Mariners’ on-base issues, but he does replace Polanco’s 25+ homers. Another power option is Munetaka Murakami, the best power threat to come out of Japan since Shohei Ohtani, but he also comes with questions about how well he will adjust to MLB pitching after striking out a fair amount in NPB, and will demand a significant contract in both dollar amount and years to lure him from his native Japan. Of note: a team has to make an offer to Murakami by December 22nd, before his posting window closes, or he returns to NPB.

Forced to pivot, the Mariners could also get creative in upgrading their roster. Since Polanco served a dual role as both an infielder and the DH, the Mariners could focus on replacing the DH part of Polanco’s contributions. With the amount of internal options on the infield who at least provide a baseline value of defense (especially in the case of Williamson, who was tracking towards Gold Glove numbers in his big-league stint), the Mariners could shift their attention off the infield and towards more plentiful free agent outfield options, moving Dominic Canzone and his adventurous defense out of right field and into a DH role.

As names start to come off the board, the off-season is a progression of narrowing pathways that accelerates rapidly in the new year. The Mariners got a jump on the off-season by locking down Josh Naylor, their stated number one priority, but now face a closed-off path to their second most-desired target. They now must pivot, and do so quickly, before even more pathways close down.