My pre-season predictions: How did I do?

Jeonbuk Hyundai are K League 1 champions. Incheon triumphed in K League 2. Daegu FC and Suwon FC were relegated to the second tier, and Suwon Bluewings have failed to go up. How many of these results did I predict back in February?

We all love making predictions, but I think more pleasure is garnered from reading other people staking their reputations on results we won't know for another nine months. This is especially true when you don't like a journalist – a sort ofgotcha feeling when you read their pitiful guesses months later.

My predictions on the left, and the actual league positions on the right.

Let's start with the positives, shall we?

1. Correctly picking the bottom three (albeit in the wrong order) was a good start.

2. Predicting Suwon FC and Daegu FC would be relegated.

3. FC Anyang to avoid relegation.

4. Gwangju FC were the only team to finish where I expected them to.

5. Getting 10 of 12 slots right for Final A and Final B.

What went wrong?

1. The only place to start is Ulsan HD winning the title. Instead of a four-in-a-row, Ulsan missed out on the Promotion–Relegation playoffs by two points.

2. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors won the league by 14 points.

3. Even though only Ulsan and Gangwon finished in the wrong half, theHorangi settling for ninth is grim.

4. I massively overestimated FC Seoul, who finished sixth.

The Story of the Season:

Jeonbuk had K League 1 sewn up before the league split in late October. But from the outset, it wasn't looking like that would be the case. Gus Poyet told the press after Jeonbuk lost 2–0 at home to Sydney FC: "We are not as good as you think we are." That was followed in March by an ultra-defensive formation away to new boys FC Anyang. "I have no choice," the manager elaborated. His team started that weekend in ninth. Poyet's team finally went top after 16 weeks, and they never budged.

The other big story of the season was Ulsan HD, bouncing into the new year on a run of three straight titles. Despite losing their opening game, Ulsan were near the top when Jeonbuk were battling to a win in Anyang. The problem was their schedule; Ulsan were forced to play more matches because of the upcoming FIFA Club World Cup in the US. By the time they returned in June, the title race was over, and they slipped closer and closer to relegation. A final-day loss to Jeju could have sparked disaster had Suwon FC beaten Gwangju.

At the other end, most pundits predicted the bottom three would be made up of Suwon, Daegu, and Jeju. What surprised everyone was how bad Daegu were. Despite going unbeaten since September 20 (eight matches), they still finished bottom. The damage was done over the summer. Jeju, meanwhile, won their final three matches (including both against Suwon Bluewings) to stay up, despite collecting only one league win since July before that run. Sport – and football – is all about momentum. Suwon FC were surprisingly overpowered by Bucheon FC to reignite the Suwon derby in K League 2 next year.

Same as above, my predictions on the left.

This really didn't go to plan.

1. Incheon United won the title in third gear.

2. Gimpo FC finished seventh, missing out on the playoffs by nine points.

3. Bucheon FC not only made the playoffs, but are now a K League 1 club.

4. In their first season at this level, Hwaseong FC were nowhere near 14th.

5. I correctly called three clubs (Seoul E-Land, Jeonnam Dragons, and Cheonan FC).

The Story of the Season:

My Suwon prediction was based on good recruitment – or so I thought. The club was undone by a poor attack in 2023 and 2024. To rectify that, they brought in Stanislav Iljutcenko, Matheus Serafim, and Bruno Silva. And so it worked, as the Bluewings averaged two goals a game over the season. Unfortunately, the defence was shockingly inept, conceding 50 goals in 39 matches. Incheon, the title winners, leaked just 30. You can't win a title when the goalkeeper is picking the ball out of his own net that often.

Incheon United didn't go on a spending spree. They kept most of their relegation squad, which meant striker Stefan Mugoša was around for another season. The Montenegrin scored 20 goals. Gerso Fernandes helped himself to the MVP award, Yoon Jong-hwan won Manager of the Year, Park Seung-ho Young Player of the Year, and six of the Best XI came from Sungui. Incheon's domination of the K League 2 championship was complete.

The other major failed call was Bucheon FC. Lee Young-min led his team to eighth in 2024. There didn't appear to be any sign of a major turnaround in fortune, but in a really competitive playoff run, Bucheon saw off Seoul E-Land, Seongnam, and Jeonnam to finish third. They even made the semi-finals of the Korea Cup. It remains one of K League's great mysteries that Lee didn't collect the Manager of the Year award. He won't care, I'm sure. The former defender took Bucheon to K League 1 for the first time ever.