We Still Have To Talk About Caedin… And Also Royce

You may remember this post on this here internet website from back on November 20th. Ah, yes, the golden days when Marquette was merely 3-3 instead of 5-6. In any case, the point of that article was that Caedin Hamilton was not paying dividends as a starter on the Marquette men’s basketball team and perhaps clearly it was time for head coach Shaka Smart and his staff to change things up to alter the trajectory of the season.

They did not do that.

Hamilton has continued to start for Marquette, and I want to outline exactly what’s happening here.

This is what his stat line looked like when I said “mmmm, I dunno if that’s working out there, boss”:

18.2 minutes per game, 52% shooting, 70% at the free throw line, 6.0 points, 4.0 rebounds

And here’s his stat line since:

21.4 minutes per game, 35% shooting, 50% at the free throw line, 3.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.0 assist.

So… other than 0.8 rebounds and 0.3 assists, perhaps thanks to an extra three minutes per game, things are, seemingly, worse. I will, of course, point out that the first chunk of the season included games against Albany, Southern, and Little Rock… but the second chunk includes Central Michigan and Valparaiso…. two games that Marquette absolutely struggled in.

Let’s dig deeper.

Since the November 20th post, Marquette has played five games. Caedin Hamilton posted, per KenPom.com, an offensive rating over 100 or better one time. That was the Central Michigan game, which means it’s been four straight games under 100, which is a shorthand for “totally average.” The Purdue game was Hamilton’s best offensive rating of the four…. and he ended up at a 91.

In Marquette’s five games that KenPom.com marks as “against top 100 opponents, adjusted for location,” Hamilton has an offensive rating of 72.5.

In Marquette’s three games that KP marks as “top 50 opponents, adjusted for location,” Hamilton has an offensive rating of 82.3.

At a glance: Marquette has eight Big East opponents in the top 100. Georgetown is on the road, so I imagine the game there will count as top 100. That’s 17 games of the 20 game league schedule against opponents that Hamilton appears to project to be a negative factor on the offensive end of the floor, based on what he’s done so far this season.

I’m willing to give him credit, and it seems like he deserves some credit. The Hoop Explorer on/off tool tells us that Hamilton is apparently a positive factor on the defensive end of the floor against top 150 opponents. (I went top 150 here because that definitely encompasses every Big East team). The Golden Eagles give up 106.2 points per 100 possessions with Hamilton on the floor this season. 1.06 per trip does not seem like a very good number…. but it’s better than the 1.12 (112.2 per 100 possessions) that they’re giving up when Hamilton’s on the bench outside of garbage time.

So here’s where you get into a problem. If the defense is 6 points per 100 possessions better with him…… but the offense is 8.2 points per 100 possessions worse — 102.1 with, 110.3 without — then that certainly sounds like Marquette is a net of 2.2 points in the hole with Hamilton on the floor. Either way, you’re giving up more points than you’re scoring, so there are clearly bigger problems than Hamilton, but that’s a big ol’ yikes no matter what. With him, Marquette is 4.1 points per 100 possessions underwater, without him, they’re at 1.9 underwater.

There appears to really be only one solution to limiting Caedin Hamilton’s playing time: More playing time for Royce Parham. If giving playing time to Josh Clark was clearly a thing that the coaching staff thought was going to work, they’d be doing that. They’re not, so we’re going to presume that they’re right and move on.

So: What does Marquette look like with and without Royce Parham on the floor?

Yeah. See.

There’s a 6.5 points per 100 possessions difference on offense that’s in Parham’s favor. That’s good news, obviously. But in order to get that 6.5 points, you have to give up *GULP* 12.4 points per 100 possessions more on the other end. When Royce Parham is playing, Marquette is getting beat by a little bit more than five points per 100 possessions. But when he’s on the bench? 102.7 for, 102.2 against per 100 trips.

That’s almost to the point of arguing that there’s no point in playing Parham being things are about even with him on the bench.

So, yeah. Marquette’s getting a bump on one side of the floor or the other from both Caedin Hamilton and Royce Parham. Given that we’ve seen Shaka Smart do some late game offense/defense switching, it stands to reason he’s aware of some of the math here, too.

If neither one is the solution over the other guy…. then I suppose we have to start looking at the rest of the roster for solutions, right? If everyone else picks it up a little bit, then that would make Hamilton and Parham look better? Maybe?

Shoot, now I feel worse about all of this.

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