Should Pfaadt’s sophomore slump temper our expectations?
- Rating: 5.80
- 2025 Stats: 176 ⅔IP, 13-9 W/L, 5.25 ERA, 82 ERA+, 123 ERA- 0.6 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR
- Date of Birth: October 15th, 1998
- 2025 Earnings: $799,400
- 2026 Status: Signed through 2030, 5 yrs/$45M (26-30) & 31-32 team/mutual option
Overview
Drafted in the 5th round of the 2020 draft, Brandon Pfaadt dominated the hitter friendly environments that make up the majority of the Arizona farm system. I won’t go into his full minor league history, but holding PCL batters to a 2.61 ERA and 3.71 ERA in two seasons is beyond impressive. Having rightfully earned a promotion by 2023, Pfaadt would become integral component of the D’Backs playoff run that culiminated in a World Series appearance in spite of having less than stellar results (5.72 ERA) during the regular season.
Pfaadt’s first full season in 2024 while not great, showed signs of promise. In 181.2 innings, Pfaadt put up 4.71 ERA, 89 ERA+, .4 bWAR, 3.1 fWAR but his significantly better 3.61 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) exemplified Pfaadt’s potential. Pfaadt’s 2024 season was good enough that it apparently inspired enough confidence for the team to sign him to a five year, $45 million deal that includes a $21 million club option for 2031, a $25 million mutual option for 2032, and a no-trade clause for 2030-32.
2025 Season
Pfaadt’s season didn’t go nearly as well as was hoped
Across 33 starts and 176 ⅔ IP, Pfaadt would put up a 5.25 ERA with a 5.36 xERA, 4.22 FIP, and 4.01 xFIP, with every single one of those statistics being worse than previous season. If you dig further into his stats you’ll see he declined in other areas as well. His strikeout percentage fell from 24.3% down to 19.2%, while his hardhit% jumped from 39.3% to 45.7%, and his barrel% jumped up from 8.1% to 10.9%. In addition, his average exit velocity on batted balls jumped from 89.4 MPH to 90.8 MPH. In other words, while Pfaadt was striking out batters less frequently, they were also squaring up and making harder, better contact more frequently. The flyballs he gave up left the ballpark at higher rate as well, with it increasing from 11.8% to 13.3%. Oddly though, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) increased by only .001, from exactly .316 in both of his first two season.
According to fWAR, Pfaadt’s 2025 season was almost half as valuable as his 2024 season, seeing it decline from 3.1 fWAR to 1.7 fWAR. It is worth noting that there is some major disagreement in the two different WAR stats. According to bWAR, Pfaadt’s 2025 season was actually more valuable than his 2024 season, since his bWAR increased from 0.4 to 0.6, and that’s in spite of him throwing five less innings and having an ERA .54 higher.
That said, you can find some positives in his 2025 season, and Pfaadt was actually able to improve in some aspects of his game. He decreased his walk percentage from 5.5% to 4.8%, and his 1.9 walks per nine innings actually lead the National League among qualified pitchers. He also stranded runners on base more frequently, with his left on base percentage (LOB%) increasing from 64.5% to 66.5%. He also did not see that significant of a spike in his homeruns per nine innings (HR/9), with that statistic only increasing from 1.19 to 1.32.
Based on my own observations, Pfaadt generally wasn’t that bad in 2025, but when he was actually struggling, it came with the worst possible timing. Miscues by the defense behind him (not his fault) also often happened at the worst possible time, compounding those situations. Going forward into 2026, I think it’s perhaps better we lower expectations of the young starter to that of a #4 or #5 starter. ZiPS projects Pfaadt to improve to 2.1 fWAR, so at least there’s that.
Category: General Sports
