Biggest match of the year: will Bundesliga relegation be settled today?

For fans of 1. FSV Mainz 05, the current December feels strangely familiar. A glance at the standings might give supporters a double déjà vu. Twice in the past five years, the Rheinhessen were deeply mired in the relegation swamp at the same time. Twice it looked bleak. And twice, in the end, everything turned out quite differently. The question before the basement duel against FC St. Pauli now is: Will Mainz experience such a miracle for the third time, or will it be relegated to the second league this time?

The bare numbers initially speak clearly against it. After 14 matchdays, Mainz stands with only seven points at the bottom of the table. This is the crystal-clear record of a relegated team. They are four points behind 16th place, six from a non-relegation spot. And now, St. Pauli, a direct competitor, currently finds itself in the relegation zone.

If Mainz wins, they are back in the game. If Mainz loses, the gap threatens to grow to seven points. With further successes from competitors like Wolfsburg, Hamburg, or Augsburg, it could even be nine to a non-relegation spot (CHECK AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND ADJUST THIS PART). Then the burden before the winter break would be enormous.

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Mainz's Second-Half Experts

For Mainz, it's not a new feeling to be knee-deep in the relegation battle just before Christmas. In 2020/21, they had only six points after 14 matchdays. In 2023/24, it was at least nine – but also only one single victory. And yet, both times, a remarkable turnaround followed. The common denominator was a coaching change and a second half of the season that was far above their own season average.

In 2020/21, Bo Svensson took over from the 15th matchday and collected a strong 33 points from 19 games. As twelfth, the 05ers celebrated a confident stay in the league. In 2023/24, Bo Henriksen came in only on the 22nd matchday, collected 23 points in 13 matches, and led Mainz to 13th place. Twice, a "Bo" from Denmark saved the Rheinhessen. Now the hopes rest on an "Urs" from Switzerland.

Back to Success with the "Basics"?

The mentioned Urs Fischer is very new in office, but the first impressions are encouraging. In the surprising 2-2 draw against FC Bayern, Mainz presented itself extremely solid and, above all, passionate. Exactly what Fischer has stood for years. At Union Berlin, he established one of the best defenses in the league over several seasons, even the best alongside Bayern in 2022/23. That he can also stabilize Mainz shocks no one.

Fischer himself recently set the tone. "It's about stability, compactness, and the basics," he made clear. In the 2-0 victory against Samsunspor in the Conference League, it also showed that more than just damage control is possible. "That was our best performance of the season," said Nadiem Amiri, captain Silvan Widmer spoke of a "positive attitude" that must be carried forward. Despite being in 18th place, there is a slight tailwind in the southwest of the republic.

A Six-Point Game from the Textbook

However, Mainz will need that. Because FC St. Pauli also travels to Rheinhessen with confidence. After the cup victory in Gladbach and the draw against Cologne, they secured their first Bundesliga win since the third matchday against Heidenheim last weekend. The Kiezkicker have proven that they can take on and win basement duels even when outnumbered.

In the Mewa Arena, it's all or nothing. Either the starting position in the relegation battle before the winter break is almost reset to zero – or Mainz bids farewell to the holidays with a heavy burden.

To make up a seven-point deficit just to 16th place, it would require almost the same point haul after the new year that Svensson and Henriksen once achieved. Then another miracle would be needed. And since they don't happen that often, a better starting position should definitely be played out against St. Pauli.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇩🇪 here.

📸 KARL-JOSEF HILDENBRAND - AFP or licensors