What does being in relegation zone at Christmas mean for survival?

Wolves, Burnley and West Ham are hanging precariously on the bottom branches at Christmas. As we approach the halfway point of the season, what do the ghosts of Christmas past tell us about the relegation battle? Only four times in 33 Premier League seasons has the side bottom on Christmas Day survived, with the most recent being Wolves in 2022-23.

This table from the BBC highlights the four Premier League teams that were at the bottom of the league table on Christmas Day but ultimately avoided relegation. 
- All four teams had 10 points at Christmas.
- West Bromwich Albion survived by a margin of 5 points in the 2004-05 season.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers achieved the highest finish position (13th) after being bottom at Christmas in the 2022-23 season.
- Sunderland and Leicester City both finished 14th in their respective survival seasons.
[BBC]

Wolves, Burnley and West Ham are hanging precariously on the bottom branches at Christmas.

As we approach the halfway point of the season, what do the ghosts of Christmas past tell us about the relegation battle?

Only four times in 33 Premier League seasons has the side bottom on Christmas Day survived, with the most recent being Wolves in 2022-23.

But with just two points won and a record 16 points from safety, it would take not just a Christmas miracle but a New Year's, Valentine's and Easter one too for bottom side Wolves to survive once again.

Second-bottom Burnley have a fighting chance because almost half the teams in their position at Christmas have stayed up, although the only time that's happened in the past eight seasons was when Eddie Howe led Newcastle to 11th in 2021-22.

West Ham fans have the most reason to be optimistic as the team in 18th has survived in two out of three seasons on average, most recently Nottingham Forest in 2022-23 and Wolves last time out.

The image displays statistics on how often teams in the bottom three of the Premier League table at Christmas manage to avoid relegation by the end of the season. 
- Teams in the third-bottom position at Christmas have the highest survival rate at 64% (21 out of 33 teams). 
- Teams in the second-bottom position survive 45% of the time (15 out of 33 teams). 
- Only four teams that were bottom of the table at Christmas have survived relegation, resulting in a 12% survival rate.
[BBC]

The most likely outcome is that one of West Ham, Burnley and Wolves will stay up as that's happened just over half the time, with two teams surviving in 12 of the previous 33 seasons.

The three teams bottom at Christmas have never all survived, while only four times in Premier League history have all three been relegated, although two of those occurred recently, in 2020-21 and 2023-24.

Read more from Chris on what the bottom three's league position at Christmas means for the relegation battle

The provided image is a BBC graphic summarizing the historical survival rates of teams in the Premier League's bottom three positions at Christmas across 33 seasons. 
- Across all seasons, no instances have occurred where all three teams in the bottom three at Christmas avoided relegation (0%). 
- In the majority of cases (52%), only one of the bottom three teams survived the drop. 
- Four teams in total have been bottom of the table at Christmas and managed to avoid relegation since the Premier League began. 
- The last season where no teams from the bottom three at Christmas survived was 2023-24.
[BBC]

Category: General Sports