Are the Rockets true contenders? Why their recent struggles are cause for concern

Following Houston’s 125-124 puzzling overtime loss to Sacramento on Sunday, head coach Ime Udoka didn’t mince words in describing his team’s recent mentality. 

“Our approach wasn’t right,” Udoka told reporters. “We didn’t deserve to win. When you play around with a team, it usually comes back to bite you.”

Despite the Rockets’ impressive 17-9 record — sixth in the West — their recent struggles are a cause for concern. Houston has lost four out of its last six games, with three of them coming against the Mavericks, Pelicans and Kings — the 11th, 13th and 15th-place teams in the conference, respectively. The team is now 4-5 since Dec. 1 and, more alarmingly, struggling to close games. Eight out of Rockets’ nine losses this season have come in the clutch, which is defined by the NBA as “the final five minutes of regulation or overtime, with the game within a five-point margin.” 

The new year is about a week away, so we’re officially at the point in the season where it’s too late to say it’s early, but too early to say it’s definitive. So how do you contextualize a 6-8 record in close games having crossed the 25-game marker? 

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / REUTERS

The Rockets are currently third in both offensive and defensive rating, according to Cleaning the Glass, which is still a strong indicator of a legitimate contender. But in tight games, everything seems to fall apart. Houston is scoring a woeful 108.9 points per 100 possessions in clutch games, which would rank lower than the Indiana Pacers, who are dead last in the NBA. Its defense also regresses to 17th during crunch time. (The Rockets’ defensive intensity as a whole has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks, now a sliver above a bottom-five unit since Dec. 8.)

From both a schematic and structural standpoint, Houston’s late-game offensive execution leaves a lot to be desired. The eye test portrays a stagnant system predicated on individualism, and the numbers back that up. The Rockets rank just outside the lower third of the league in assist ratio (19th) and assist percentage (18th) in crunch time. They’re also in the bottom third in pace, turnover rate, effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Too slow, too predictable. 

Is there a fix?

Some of their issues could be sorted out by having a full, healthy roster. Reserve forward Tari Eason recently returned after missing 14 games and Dorian Finney-Smith (left ankle surgery) could be back sometime in January. Both are hard-nosed, versatile defenders who can also space the floor at a high level and serve as release valves when teams load up on Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün, and Amen Thompson to a lesser degree. Eason and Finney-Smith  should help stabilize a team allowing 131.3 points and 135.7 points per 100 possessions in their two most-used overtime lineups, per NBA.com tracking data. 

Another, simpler fix is just to smoothen out their shot distribution. Per Second Spectrum, Şengün has taken 21 more shots in crunch time than any other teammate, but his effective field goal percentage is just 40.8 and his true shooting percentage is 44.8. For context, Şengün’s shooting splits would slot in 452nd and 453rd among 454 players averaging at least 20 minutes per game. Could it be that Şengün is still adjusting to an uptick in playing time, the effects of which typically manifest itself late in games? That’s a possible explanation for such a drastic drop in efficiency over the span of clutch time. 

This is less of an indictment of Şengün, who is playing at an All-Star and All-NBA level, averaging 23-9-7 all while filling a playmaking void in the wake of Fred VanVleet’s absence. It’s more of a call for Udoka and his staff to update their software. 

There’s an argument to be made that Durant, one of the game’s best closers who’s never looked to be overly ball-dominant, is aiding Şengün’s development by placing the bulk of offensive responsibility on his broad shoulders through regular-season reps. But looking at Houston’s usage distribution, the gap between Şengün (30.7) and Durant (18.4) is way too substantial given the gravity, three-level scoring and efficiency that the future Hall of Famer brings with him. 

Durant, at age 37, may not be the A1 ball-handler he once was, but he’s scoring 0.939 points per chance in clutch situations, which is still better than nearly two-thirds of the league, according to Synergy tracking data. That alone should warrant a switch in tactics, putting the ball more in his hands — with Şengün as a screener — to facilitate better looks. It would certainly make things a bit more natural; Houston ranks dead last in 3-point attempts overall, but jumps all the way to fifth in the clutch while converting an abysmal 28% of such shots. That sort of uncanny jump speaks to a number of things, but the overarching theme is discomfort. More on and off-ball actions, freeing up the likes of Sheppard, Smith and Eason, should be the goal. 

Udoka sought simplicity in his first two seasons because of his roster’s composite age and experience. After a competitive playoff series and the addition of Durant, he should feel like this group is ready to add layers to its attack. 

The Rockets are as deep as any team in the NBA and have the ability to go toe-to-toe with the very best. But until they get their crunch-time issues under control, their breakthrough to true contention could be delayed.