Against the 11-4 Bears, another playoff team and the league leader in takeaways, Purdy will face his toughest opponent in three months.
As the Indianapolis Colts prepared to face the San Francisco 49ers last week, there was reason for optimism about the Colts' defensive potential.
Just one week prior, Indianapolis had held Sam Darnold, Jaxson Smith-Njigba and their Seattle Seahawks teammates to 18 points and no touchdowns. Why not beat up on another playoff-bound NFC West team as prime-time football beckoned?
But the Colts failed to stop, or even slow, Brock Purdy and the Niners in a 48-point outing that featured the 49ers’ first five-passing touchdown performance in 30 years. And while Indianapolis was not the first to fall prey to the 49ers’ offensive prowess this season, the Colts’ top weakness could offer a tell as the 49ers host the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football this weekend.
The Colts' defense has ranked right around league average in points allowed (18th) and has defended the run fifth-best among NFL teams. But Indianapolis’ pass defense, and particularly its pass rush, has struggled mightily to disrupt opponents.
In fact, no team has pass-rushed less efficiently this season than the Colts, who rank dead last with a 28% pass-rush win rate, per ESPN’s metric. (For context, the top-ranked Cleveland Browns are thwarting pass blocks at a 47% clip.)
The second-worst pass-rushing defense, at a 29% win rate: the Bears.
It’s a striking weakness for a defense that in several other metrics should worry opponents.
No team ranks better in turnover differential, one of the statistics that most clearly correlates with winning, than the Bears. Their +21 turnover differential is thanks in large part to their league-best 31 takeaways including a league-best 21 interceptions.
“When the ball’s in the air, they’re aggressive, they don’t hesitate,” Purdy said this week. “Obviously their guys have length and just athletic ability across the board. And I just feel like they’re really well-coached when it comes to being aggressive and not trying to second-guess things.
“They pop, that’s for sure, on film.”
But will their opportunism without a pass-rush threat be enough to slow Purdy and Co.?
Will Purdy’s success vs. Bears hinge on how long he has in pocket?
Since returning from a big toe injury that sidelined him six straight weeks and eight total, Purdy has been on a heater.
He’s thrown 13 touchdowns to four interceptions in his return. The 49ers have won all five of those games.
Forget their somewhat-susceptible defense retooling after season-ending injuries to five-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Nick Bosa, four-time All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and first-round rookie defensive lineman Mykel Williams. Forget also that their offense is playing without its top receivers of recent years, following an offseason trade of Deebo Samuel and an injury-related contract dispute with Brandon Aiyuk that has led to Aiyuk missing the entire season.
Behind running back Christian McCaffrey, as well as Purdy and tight end George Kittle when they weren’t each missing at least five weeks, the 49ers have raced to 11 wins and a chance at the NFC’s top seed.
“I think it’s tough,” Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen said. “I think backs and tight ends are really tough matchups on a defense. If you have an outstanding receiver, there's some things that you can really do to try to take those guys away. It becomes more challenging inside of the tight end, running back position. … I don't think they do anything where they say, ‘We're going to throw it to this guy on this particular play.’
“I think [Purdy] does a great job of getting through his progressions, and he throws it to the open guy.”
Rhythm and time in the pocket are key to those progressions.
With 3.31 seconds to throw Monday, Purdy threw five touchdowns to one interception. Three times this season, including twice before his six-week stretch out, Purdy threw multiple interceptions. Those three games correspond with his quickest times to throw, highlighted by a three-interception game vs. the Carolina Panthers when Purdy had just 2.9 seconds to throw, per Next Gen Stats.
Without pass rushers who can win, the Bears may struggle to disrupt the timing of Kyle Shanahan’s well-schemed offense and thus struggle to disrupt the rhythm of Purdy and his targets. The 49ers’ offense is not slow, per se; rather, it efficiently works through several options as Purdy patiently awaits his routes to develop.
“Just watch the speed at which they operate, the speed at which they operate up front in the running game and how they get to their landmarks,” Allen said. “All the offensive linemen are working in unison in terms of how they run their routes. Each player will run a certain route, and no matter who the player is, it looks the same.
“That, to me, is the detail in coaching.”
Bears, 49ers matchup feels like ‘another playoff game’ with high NFC stakes
A defensive assistant who played against the 49ers this year emphasized the power of Shanahan’s scheme in the success of both Purdy and Mac Jones, who helped the 49ers to a 5-3 record in Purdy’s absence while throwing 13 touchdowns to six interceptions.
“Mac Jones played well, too,” the assistant told Yahoo Sports. “Their run game forces defense[s] to play single-high safety coverage, giving the QB easy reads.”
In-breaking routes inside the numbers and quick passes off quick reads follow. Purdy benefits when he has time; but that doesn’t mean he’ll always take it.
“Plays to Purdy’s skill set,” the assistant said, adding that Shanahan “is a complete stud as play caller.”
And yet, if the 49ers were put before the College Football Playoff committee, their winning streak may not merit the credit of all five-game winning streaks. None of the five teams they’ve beaten in that stretch has more than eight wins; three have already been eliminated from postseason contention, while the Colts have less than a 1% chance of advancing, per Next Gen Stats.
Only the Panthers, still battling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC South title, are on track to make the playoffs. The Panthers intercepted Purdy three times.
And in his two September games, against the playoff-bound Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars, Purdy threw two interceptions in each game.
So against the 11-4 Bears, another playoff team and the league leader in takeaways, Purdy will face his toughest opponent in three months.
“I want to score a touchdown every drive,” Purdy said. “So I’m looking at myself like, ‘All right, how did we not convert there?’ The interception at the end of the [Colts] game, like tip ball, it was high. So, just watching the film and being real with myself about how I could still be better with my accuracy on certain plays and being aggressive and not second-guessing on certain plays.
“I’m getting complacent with going through my reads and stuff and making the right decisions. So definitely have learned from that, but there’s always still room for improvement.”
The Bears will aim to disrupt that decision-making as they visit San Francisco as 3-point underdogs in the matchup of 11-win teams.
They’ll prepare for the 49ers’ pre-snap motion and their versatility; their schematic wrinkles that “force the defense to communicate and try to get guys out of position,” cornerback Kevin Byard said.
Pass rush or not, they’ll be coming for Purdy.
“The more you win games, the bigger the next game is,” Byard said. “Obviously, we just got a huge win over Green Bay [last] Saturday night. But this game is even bigger. This is a team that's already clinched the playoffs. This will be another time to be able to measure up to a team like that.
“Another playoff game in my opinion.”
Category: General Sports
