On Sunday night, the Baltimore Ravens will get the chance to right their wrongs. Only five times in NFL history has a team that started 1-5, made the playoffs and somehow, someway, the 2025 Ravens will get the opportunity to be the sixth. The Ravens season started in disastrous fashion, and despite their 7-3 record […]
On Sunday night, the Baltimore Ravens will get the chance to right their wrongs. Only five times in NFL history has a team that started 1-5, made the playoffs and somehow, someway, the 2025 Ravens will get the opportunity to be the sixth. The Ravens season started in disastrous fashion, and despite their 7-3 record over the second half of the schedule, still have left a lot to be desired on the field. Fortunately, they are coming off their best performance of the season in Lambeau Field this past Saturday night.
On the shoulders of Derrick Henry, Baltimore bludgeoned the Green Bay Packers’ defensive front, rushing for over 300 yards and four touchdowns. It was a game that was as frustrating as it was satisfying. With an injured quarterback and porous defense, it was the blueprint the Ravens should have been following for the past three months. Fortunately for the Ravens, the football gods have given them a chance to make up for their mistakes. With the Ravens victory and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ loss in Cleveland in Week 17, the AFC North title will come down to one game next Sunday night. Weeks ago, this seemed like the most likely scenario. Both the Ravens and Steelers are flawed teams and the way the schedule lined up made it seem like the battle for the AFC North would come down to this Week 18 matchup.
On paper, the Ravens have the better team. Pittsburgh will be without D.K. Metcalf, Darnell Washington, and potentially T.J. Watt. Whether Lamar Jackson plays or not is honestly irrelevant. The Ravens found the blueprint last week. Run the ball, control the clock, and keep your defense off the field. The Ravens have shredded the Steelers on the ground the last two years. Even in their Week 14 matchup, when the Ravens’ offense was in a serious rut, they were still able to put up over 200 yards rushing. Unfortunately, the usual suspects – turnovers, bad calls, and poor late game management — cost the Ravens in the end.
It’s clear the Ravens run a different, more conservative offense with Tyler Huntley in the game and hilariously, it’s one that is built for the postseason. With Jackson under center, Todd Monken wants to open up the playbook, and that makes sense. However, the downside is a higher propensity for sacks, penalties, and turnovers. With Huntley under center, the Ravens shifted to a much more conservative offense, utilizing the short-passing game at a higher rate. It’s a formula that has taken teams like Kansas City, Buffalo, and Philadelphia deep into the post-season.
After their 2020 loss in the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs traded away their star deep threat Tyreek Hill. While people scoffed at the decision, it was clear that Kansas City was ahead of the curve. They knew that to win in the postseason, you need to play a style of football that limits risk. The result? Three straight Super Bowl appearances. Amongst last year’s playoff teams, the Eagles and Chiefs ranked 12th and 13th out of the 14 playoff teams in ADoT (average depth of target). Coincidence those two teams made it to the Super Bowl? Only Washington was lower, and they still surpassed all playoff expectations and made it to the NFC Championship.
The Ravens can win next week if they play the exact style of football we saw in Green Bay. Even with a banged-up defense, Green Bay still has a sound system that ranks Top 10 in many categories. They looked helpless. By running the football and utilizing the short-passing game, good defenses become frustrated and overcompensate. That’s when you look for the big play offensively. The Chiefs used a similar strategy in the 2023 AFC Championship, throwing countless short passes and screens until the final third down of the game, when Patrick Mahomes threw it over the top of the Ravens’ defense for the kill shot.
As great as Jackson is at pushing the ball down the field, they need to use a more conservative offensive approach, especially with an injured quarterback, below-average offensive line, and vulnerable defense. If Jackson is under center, the playbook needs to shrink, and the Ravens need to make a more concerted effort to get rid of the ball quickly and give Henry 30+ attempts. In the same vein, Jackson needs to know that he can’t force the issue. If it’s not there, don’t throw it and live to see another down. The upside with a healthy Jackson is limitless, but they need to be smart.
The Ravens undoing against Pittsburgh has typically been turnovers, which stem from a player trying to do too much. The Ravens have always been adept at beating themselves which typically comes from them forcing the issue and not just making the simple play. The formula for success is there. Will Harbaugh and Monken revert back to their old ways, or take the low hanging fruit? We will find out this Sunday night.
Category: General Sports
