BYU hoops is winding down a long holiday break after a successful 12-1 non-conference campaign before Big 12 play begins Saturday at Kansas State. Saturday’s game in Manhattan kicks off an 18-game Big 12 slate where BYU is looking to get a top seed in the NCAA Tournament and AJ Dybantsa guns for the Wooden […]
BYU hoops is winding down a long holiday break after a successful 12-1 non-conference campaign before Big 12 play begins Saturday at Kansas State. Saturday’s game in Manhattan kicks off an 18-game Big 12 slate where BYU is looking to get a top seed in the NCAA Tournament and AJ Dybantsa guns for the Wooden Award as the best player in college basketball. BYU is in a much better position than last year going into Big 12 play, but BYU also has loftier goals.
Resume Highlights
BYU Record: 12-1
NET: 9
KenPom: 10
NET SOS: 50
Quad 1: 3-1
Quad 2: 2-0
Quad 3: 2-0
Quad 4: 5-0
BYU’s non-conference strength of schedule was good, but it wasn’t the murderers’ row some were trying to make it out to be. Even with that, it was light years ahead of last season. According to KenPom, BYU’s non-conference SOS right now is 93rd nationally; last year it was 347th. BYU got three Quad 1 wins in non-conference play. Last year, BYU didn’t get its first Quad 1 win until January 28 and got its third Quad 1 win February 11. BYU got its third Quad 1 win this year December 9 versus Clemson.
BYU has positioned themselves much better than season going into Big 12 play, but the bar is also much higher. BYU is shooting for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. The one thing I’ll poke at in BYU’s non-conference schedule is that they didn’t schedule one more Quad 1A type game; i.e., a game versus a top 10 or 15 type opponent. UConn was obviously that, but I would’ve liked to see one more. Wisconsin has underperformed, but BYU could have scheduled one more top game like Arizona, Alabama, UConn, or other top teams did. That would have given BYU a chance to have a marquee win in the non-conference slate and increase BYU’s chances to get a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Even without that, BYU will have plenty of chances in Big 12 play to pick up Quad 1 and 1A wins to beef the resume. I expect BYU to schedule even tougher in next year’s non-conference schedule, especially with the college basketball schedule moving from 31 to 32 regular season games.
Big 12 Lookahead
The top of the Big 12 is the best of any league in the country and the Big 12 did the best of any league in non-conference play. 4 teams are in the KenPom top 11 and 6 teams in the top 21. Utah is the worst team in the league going into conference play, and even they beat a SEC team in Ole Miss. BYU has started 2-4 in Big 12 play each of the last two seasons, but this year should be different.
Below are the NET rankings of the 16 Big 12 teams heading into conference play.
On paper, BYU’s easiest stretch of Big 12 play is the first four games. BYU has at least a 78% KenPom win probability in each game. Kansas State on the road this Saturday is the toughest of the four, should be a high-scoring affair, and is a Quad 1 game. KenPom favors BYU by 8 points. The three games after that BYU should be double-digit favorites. BYU could take a 4-0 record into a top 20 road matchup at Texas Tech on January 17. The softer start will also allow BYU to work big man Abdullah Ahmed into the lineup a little easier since BYU should have more margin of error to work with.
The toughest stretch is the five games between January 26-February 9. All five of those are Quad 1 games and three are on the road — Arizona (H), Kansas (A), Oklahoma State (A), Houston (H), and Baylor (A). It doesn’t get easier after that, either. BYU has a breather at home versus Colorado before two top 5 games at Arizona and home versus Iowa State. That, my friends, is what we call a gauntlet. Seven Quad 1 games in eight chances means BYU will have a chance to put its resume among the elite in the sport, hold serve if they go around .500, or potentially crash if they snowball losses.
Last year, Houston got a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament despite 3 non-conference losses and a KenPom SOS that ranked 100, below where BYU is now. However, the Cougs went 19-1 in Big 12 play and then went 3-0 in the Big 12 tournament. Arizona and Iowa State both have paths to 1 seeds after big non-conference wins. BYU could get a 1 seed if they win the Big 12, but realistically a 2 or 3 seed seems more likely than a 1 seed.
Each Big 12 team plays three other teams twice and every other team once. The three teams BYU draws twice are Arizona, Texas Tech, and Utah. Arizona is #1 in the AP Poll, Utah is the worst team in the league, and Texas Tech is a top 20 team with a win over Duke and will give BYU two Quad 1 games.
Final Thoughts
I am incredibly excited for Big 12 play, as I’m sure you are since you are reading this. BYU picked up nice wins in the non-conference slate, AJ Dybantsa is a super star, Richie Saunders will go down as all-time great in BYU history, and each game in Big 12 game will be on network television, literally. BYU has zero games on ESPN+ and the one game on Peacock (Arizona State) will also be on NBC Sports Network. BYU’s Big 12 opener Saturday is the first college basketball game in 2026 on CBS and will feature two of the nation’s three leading scorers in AJ Dybantsa and PJ Haggerty. The end result is what we ultimately base success on, but I also don’t want to lose sight on the journey for what will be full of memorable plays and moments.
Category: General Sports
