Why Indiana’s third-down conversion success could lead them to the College Football Playoff semifinals

After an incredible, historic season, it all comes down to the next three weeks for the Indiana Hoosiers in their search for a National Championship in just Curt Cignetti’s second year as head coach.

The Hoosiers went 13-0 and are ranked as the No. 1 team in the country for the first time in program history after upsetting Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. Now, they face the team that has won the most Championships in the College Football Playoff era: the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Indiana is a complete team, which is why they’re a 6.5-point favorite (and it could be even higher) heading into Thursday’s Rose Bowl game.

But, anything can happen in the College Football Playoff between two teams, and the Hoosiers are facing an Alabama team with quite a few big wins this season. Of course, none are bigger than Indiana’s duo of victories over Ohio State and Oregon, but this one could very well be a battle.

However, when it comes to football, success on the money down usually leads to wins. And that is where Indiana has excelled this season.

Offensively, the Hoosiers are the best third-down team in the country, converting at a 54.4 percent clip this season. In some of their bigger games, the efficiency has wavered a bit. They were 5 of 14 (35.7 percent) on third down against Oregon. They were 6 of 13 (46.2 percent) against Ohio State. They were 6 of 15 (40 percent) against Iowa.

In general, Indiana has been consistent on third downs this season, which is why the team had one of the best offenses in the country, scoring at least 50 points six times this season.

Defensively, the story doesn’t change much. They’re fifth in the country, allowing third-down conversions at a ghastly 29.3 percent rate. When things get to fourth downs, the Hoosiers aren’t great though (85th on conversions, 61st at allowing conversions).

Indiana’s success on both sides of the ball on third downs has been a huge reason why the Hoosiers are a favorite heading into the College Football Playoff.

Looking at the matchup, Alabama is a quality third-down defense, ranking 44th in the country as they allow opponents to convert only 36.7 percent of their third downs. Offensively, they’re in a similar range, ranking 53rd in the country (40.7 percent conversion rate). So, there’s a potential advantage there for the Hoosiers, especially given how poor the Crimson Tide have been recently on third downs.

In the 34-24 win over Oklahoma, Alabama was just 2 of 12 on third downs. They were able to get to 34 because of a pick-six and a short-field touchdown drive, but they weren’t great on the money down.

Against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, Alabama was just 3 of 14, scoring only seven points. Then, back in the Iron Bowl, the Crimson Tide were just 4 of 17, barely winning 27-20, thanks to a forced fumble with 33 seconds left in the game.

Alabama can’t afford that type of execution against Indiana, which can control the time of possession well (7th in college football). If the Hoosiers win, third downs will likely play a role in that on both sides of the ball.