The Jays signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33 million contract, before the 2025 season, after deciding not to sign Jordan Romano. Romano ended up with the Phillies, Hoffman’s former team, and had 8 saves and an 8.23 ERA in 49 games. It turned out the Jays were right not to sign him. Hoffman had […]
The Jays signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33 million contract, before the 2025 season, after deciding not to sign Jordan Romano. Romano ended up with the Phillies, Hoffman’s former team, and had 8 saves and an 8.23 ERA in 49 games. It turned out the Jays were right not to sign him.
Hoffman had a very good 2024 season, putting up a 2.17 ERA, with 10 saves, in 68 games, working mostly as the setup man for the Phillies.
| WAR | W | L | ERA | G | GS | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | ERA+ | FIP | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 9 | 7 | 4.37 | 71 | 0 | 59 | 33 | 68.0 | 54 | 34 | 33 | 15 | 27 | 1 | 84 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 287 | 98 | 4.90 | 3.11 |
Baseball Reference had him at a 0.5 WAR. FanGraphs -0.4, giving him a value of -3.0 million dollars to the Jays.
He had a 4.90 FIP and a 3.73 xFIP which explains why his fWAR was so much worse.
Jeff had a .248 BABIP (.278 last year). 79.7% of his baserunners were stranded (80.2% last year).
His strikeout rate was 29.3% (down from 33.6 last year), and his walk rate was 9.4% (up from 6.0).
Hoffman’s line drive rate was 16.5% (down from 21.7). Ground ball rate 39.4% (up from an amazing 37.6). Fly ball 44.1% (up from 40.8). 20.0% of his fly balls left the park (up from 9.4).
His soft contact was 18.0% (up from 17.3). Hard contact 37.2% (up from 30.6).
Hoffman had more trouble vs LHB (.222/.313/.492) than RHB (.205/.284/.402).
He was much worse at home (4.82 ERA, .234/.308/.505) than on the road (3.82 ERA, .188/.287/.375).
Jeff was better in the second half (3.45 ERA, .202/.325/.433, in 28.2) than the first half (5.03, .221/.278/.456 in 24 innings)
Hoffman by month:
- April: 3-0, 1.17 ERA in 13 games, with 6 saves. In 15.1 innings, batters hit .154/.167/.269 with 1 home runs, 6 walks and 22 strikeouts.
- May: 1-2, 13.50 ERA, in 12 games, with 7 saves. In 10 innings, batters hit .318/.400/.727 with 5 home runs, 6 walks and 14 strikeouts.
- June: 2-0, 1.80 ERA, in 12 games with 6 saves. In 10 innings, batters hit .167/.250/.361 with 2 home runs, 1 walk and 13 strikeouts.
- July: 0-2, 4.50 ERA, in 10 games, with 6 saves. In 10 innings, batters hit .237/.275/.474 with 2 home runs, 1 walk and 13 strikeouts.
- August: 2-2, 6.00 ERA, in 13 games, with 4 saves. In 12 innings, batters hit .261/.393/.587 with 4 home runs, 9 walks and 14 strikeouts.
- September: 1-1, 0.84 ERA, 11 games with 4 saves. In 10.2 innings, batters hit .135/.289/.243 with 1 home runs, 7 walks and 8 strikeouts.
The Jays were 54-17 in games that he appeared.
By Catcher:
- Tyler Heineman: 4.22 ERA. Batters hit .250/.315/.452 in 92 PA.
- Alejandro Kirk: 4.43 ERA. Batters hit .200/.298/.445 in 180 PA.
- Ali Sanchez: 4.50 ERA. Batters hit .143/.200/.429 in 15 PA.
In high leverage spots, batters hit .214/.305/.464 against him. Low leverage .226/.323/.512. Of course a closer sees a lot more high leverage than more pitchers.
Jeff pitched 2 innings in 3 games, but never more than an inning other than those three games.
Days of Rest:
- 0 days: 3.98 ERA, batters hit .256/.301/.487 in 84 PA.
- 1 day: 0.98 ERA, batters hit .109/.174/.203 in 69 PA.
- 2 days: 13.06 ERA, batters hit .333/.415/.844 in 45 PA.
- 3 days: 2.89 ERA, batters hit .156/.270/.375 in 37 PA.
- 4 days: 5.40 ERA, batters hit .211/.386/.368 in 21 PA.
- 6+ days: 1.93 ERA, batters hit .200/.455/.333 in 23 PA.
| Series | W | L | ERA | G | GS | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | WP | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALDS | 0 | 0 | 3.86 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 |
| ALCS | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.23 |
| WS | 0 | 0 | 1.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 |
Other than that home run……..
He had 7 blown saves on the season.
He averaged 96.4 mph on his fastball, down slightly from 96.7 last year. Beyond that, he threw a slider (29.9% of the time), split finger (23.8%) and sinker 8.9%). The four seamer was the one that caused him the most trouble, batters slugged .643 against it.
Baseball Savant had his fastball run value at the 17th percentile, while his breaking ball run value was 75th percentile.
His chase rate was 97th percentile and whiff was 90th percentile. On the flip side, his barrel percentage was 1st percentile.
It wasn’t the season we expected from him.
The team was looking to sign a ‘proven closer’ but that hasn’t happened yet this winter. I think that odds are he’ll be better if he is closer next year, but then I’d rather not bet on it.
The Braves and Orioles passed on signing him before of something they saw when they had him do a physical, but we didn’t see any issue.
Category: General Sports
