The Patriots will host the AFC West team at Gillette Stadium next week.
The New England Patriots entered their regular season finale against the Miami Dolphins with a slim chance of ending up as the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC. Despite a 38-10 victory, that did not materialize: the Patriots will enter the tournament as the second-seeded team in their conference.
This, in turn, sets them up for a meeting against the lowest-rated among the other wild card participants. The 11-6 Los Angeles Chargers, who finished as the seventh seed, will visit Gillette Stadium on Sunday, Jan. 11, at 8 p.m. ET.
We will have in-depth analysis into L.A. throughout the week. For now, however, here are some quick-hit thoughts on the matchup.
Marquee quarterback battle
Of the three quarterbacks representing the AFC in this year’s Pro Bowl, two will meet next weekend: the Patriots’ Drake Maye and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert.
While the latter is not part of the same MVP discussions as the former, he is still a remarkable player and one of the truly elite talents at the position. Herbert, frankly, can do it all: he is as physically gifted as any QB in football and has one of the best pure arms you will ever see — an arm he used to complete 340 of 512 pass attempts in his 16 regular season games (66.4%) for 3,727 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
Those numbers per se do not stand out, particularly compared to Maye’s this year. However, they are in part a byproduct of Herbert playing in an offense bitten hard by the injury bug. That was especially true along the offensive line, contributing to a 42.7% pressure rate so far this year.
And yet, he led his team to a playoff berth to set up a meeting with another rare talent at quarterback.
Defensive challenges
The Patriots offense has been one of the most productive in the NFL this regular season, allowing the team to finish the regular season with an average of 28.8 points per game. Their ability to score points will be tested on wild card weekend, however: the Chargers defense has played some impressive football this year.
Featuring a pair of Pro Bowlers — ED Tuli Tuipulotu and S Derwin James — the unit is among the most productive in the NFL regardless of category. Los Angeles finished the regular season ranked ninth in points allowed (20.0) and among the top-10 in yards and points per drive as well as multiple pass and run defense statistics.
The Patriots led by the aforementioned Drake Maye and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have shown that they can compete against high-level opponents. That said, only one of them — the Cleveland Browns, who they scored 30 offensive points against in Week 8 — was ranked higher this regular season in expected points added per defensive play: the Browns are third on that list (-0.083), the Chargers sixth. (-0.070).
Rest and relaxation
Entering Week 18, the Chargers had nothing to play for outside of playoff seeding — something they clearly did not care about, or else they would have approached their game against the Denver Broncos differently. What they did, meanwhile, was hold out several key players.
The aforementioned Justin Herbert headlined the list that also included running back Omarion Hampton, wide receivers Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnson, center Bradley Bozeman, edge defenders Tuli Tuipulotu and Khalil Mack, linebacker Daiyan Henley, and safeties Derwin James and Elijah Molden. Under normal circumstances, all of them would be no the field for extended action — and on Sunday they will be.
New England, meanwhile, was able to give its top personnel some rest as well on Sunday; Drake Maye and other starters were pulled from the win over Miami in the early fourth quarter. The team will also hope that it will get some additional reinforcements back from its inactives list: starter-level contributors Jared Wilson, Khyiris Tonga, Harold Landry and Robert Spillane were all out in Week 18 due to injury.
Poetic opponent
The last time the Patriots played the Chargers turned into a pivotal moment for New England. Playing in front of a home crowd, the team of then-head coach Jerod Mayo was uncompetitive from the start and ended up losing 40-7 to drop to 3-13 on the year.
The nature of the loss served as a catalyst for Mayo getting fired a week later, and thus eventually set the stage for Mike Vrabel being brought in. A little over 12 months removed, the next Patriots-Chargers bout will be taking place under entirely different circumstances.
The poetic nature of the opponent does not end there. The Chargers also are the last team the Patriots beat in a home playoff game: during the 2018 season, they beat them in dominant fashion and with a final score of 41-28. Three weeks later, New England won the Super Bowl, and its final playoff game to date.
Category: General Sports
